The #AUDUSD looks set to squeeze higher after a false breakdown of the key .7000 last week. The Dec 20th low was at .7082 and a break above that level would put the 50dma back to the test at the .7165 level. Also, take note that the daily candlestick formation is a piercing line, which is a bullish setup!
Following the FOMC this week the US Dollar is poised for higher levels while the index trades above the 96.92 level. The next resistance is the 127% extension of the November 2021-January 2022 range at 97.52. beyond that the previous highs from June 2020 come into view at 97.85. We must note at this point, if the DXY hits a high soon and turns lower, the RSI may...
The EURGBP has been in a descending channel Since Spring 2021, and the pair just rallied past the .8380 breakdown point leaving the bears the "bag holders" near term. The squeeze higher should accelerate higher towards the 200dma should a break of the 50dma (.8430) occurs. The RSI has also broken higher too confirming the squeeze higher.
The NZDUSD is exhibiting all the characteristics of a bear flag pattern and anyone who is a "NZD bull" should be concerned. First of all, the consolidation since December of 2021 has been a bearish consolidation not above to get back above the 38% retracement of the Oct 2021 highs to December 2021 lows. The "bear flag" has been masked as a nice "ascending...
I am hesitant to turn outright "bearish" #USD unless the 94.50 level breaks. That level held today as the low was 94.66 on the US Dollar index. That is the previous breakout point (November 2021) and also the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from the Oct 2021 lows to recent highs. While above that the risk for a bounce back towards the 95.00 level is the near term risk.
Today's broad based USD weakness allowed for the EURUSD to break its 1.5 month consolidation higher. In doing so, the pair broke the 114.25 trend line that has held the downtrend since summer of 2021. Technicians will be watching the pair and how it closes the week. Above or below the 114.25 level will be key. A move higher could allow for a move back to the...
The rally back in "risk" helped the #AUDUSD off pennant support at the .7140 level as we test the 50dma, and the risk is the pair could trade back to the .7280 level near term while above the .7140 level. A break below that level would put the .7000 back in view and if stocks carve out a lower high on this current rally (short of the all-time highs) AUDUSD bulls...
I have a hard time playing a head and shoulder (inverted in this case) pattern without an "arm" to the left of the chart, but this pattern can't be ignored. The #GBPAUD is setting up a possible inverted head and shoulder pattern with a target at the 1.9600 level. I tend not to trade these patterns, but the fact is that we had a triangle breakout back in May...
The $SPX is nearing some support: Following the bearish engulfing weekly candle and false breakout, the SPX is nearing the 78% retracement and channel support around the 4600 level Intraday RSI's are oversold too
All the talk in the market these days are that "rates are moving higher" globally, and they are not wrong. And when trying to gauge if the US bond market will continue lower (10yr yields towards 2%), sometimes helping confirm the move with other markets is very important. What we see with the German 10yr bund we are at very critical support which has held as a...
The USDJPY is going to be put to the test in the coming sessions. With yields on the rise following the FOMC minutes today and stocks selling off as a response to higher rates, the USDJPY will be put to the test in a big way. One half of traders would argue that the USDJPY rallies sharply when yields move higher. The other half would argue that the JPY tends to...
We start the new year with yields on the 10yr trying to breakout while the ZN bonds traded to levels we have not seen since the pandemic hit in 2020. The risk is while yields surge higher in anticipation of the FOMC tightening monetary policy in the months ahead, the risk is that the NASDAQ 100 starts to show some weakness. Key support in the coming weeks will be...
The Cable caught a bid today as the BOE unexpectedly raised rates. As the market looks to reprice the GBP (after a widely seen poorly communicated BOE meeting once again) the Sterling could squeeze higher, especially if the pair clears the 1.3350 level resistance on a daily close. This is previous support from November 12th and we rejected that level today...
Major support spike low from September at the 21.35 level held once again today which could set the stage for a rally near term. Resistance is at the 22.65 level and if this breaks we could see the upper end of the range towards the 200dma tested in the coming weeks. Silver and gold both have been underperforming, but with the DXY reacting lower following the FOMC...
Spot Gold, or the XAUUSD, has a great setup ahead of the FOMC tomorrow. Today, on the "Daily Roundup" webinar for Forex Analytix traders, we discussed the setup in detail. However, in the daily chart we can clearly see it. A move above the 200dma at 1800 (approximately) would clear the way for a rally back towards the 1850 level or higher, but a break of the 61.8%...
I discussed this yesterday on the "Trade off" show with Pepperstone as my "setup #2." The GBPNZD I do expect to drop to the .9271-1.9371 (we are pretty much there) and I am looking for a bounce. This could setup an inverted head and shoulder pattern if it does happen. The 38% Fibonacci retrace to the 50% retracement is where I am looking for near term longs.
Following the NFP tomorrow if we have strong payrolls data, I am looking for a probe (or slight move below) the .7059 level, and possibly to .7000 the figure. However, if you are a long time listener of the FACE (free) webinar, you would know I am looking for support at the long term 38% Fibonacci retracement to hold at .7059 and a reversal higher from there....
The loonie probed stops above the 1.2800 level and closed back below the daily trend line (triangle). Crude oil has been pounded lower and the risk is growing that a bounce in crude could materialize this week which may allow for the USDCAD to slip back below channel support at the 1.2700 level and back "mid range" in the middle of the long term triangle...