If history is a reliable guide with respect to BTC - and it has been repeatedly after the large extensions for Price, the correction is equally dramatic.
Once we see 30,000 let go, Price should slide quickly. There is contention among HODL and yet BTD remains reluctant.
10yr Yields peaked at ~1.70 as the Federal Reserve began YCC (Yield Curve Control) well in advance of recognition by the Retail Bond Market. With a shortage of T-Bills and Janet Yellen attempting to Fund the Fiscal Malfeasance out the Curve in order to reduce Short Term funding. With CASH mounting in Money Market Funds, there remains a large pool of Cash with...
The VXN Index is a Volatility Index to estimate expected volatility of the NASDAQ 100, It is calculated using the midpoint of RTH Real Time NDX option bid/ask quotes. The Range is quite clear, we are approaching the bottom of the range. Probability is advancing into a clear SELL signal. NQ trading for success requires a close monitoring of VXN, everything a...
A clear divergence is forming between AAPL, TQQQ, QQQ July will be the High for NQ IMHO, it will see a large correction beginning next week. Semiconductor Sector has immense issues. We could see a 20% decline in Tech as shortages will crimp earnings as Input Prices are being rejected. The NQ has the potential to make a new high, it must break the Range posted...
AAPL had a Large Participation in Call Activity. As the VXN approaches 19.10 Traders should pay close attention, as should this level fail later today: AAPL will be targeting Micro Fibs between 150-155. The VX broke 16.90 and traded 16.80, this will place pressure on the VXX, UVXY and SPXU. The ES has two gap fills, one just above and one well below. We will...
Bitcoin will break 30,000 IMHO, the trend is quite clear, it is weakening in Trend. 29012 is the next key level. When this gives way, it will be a quick trip to 24955. Crypto Winter remains the Trend with 58% of it behind us at the moment. Volatility in the Crypto Complex is going to increase. Market Breadth at the open on the NYSE is 6.5 to 1. VX appears...
We are Neutral for Today, VX during Roll should continue to come under pressure. Should the VX break 16.90 we could see a quick flush down to ~16.50s. Ahead of Jackson Hole, there will be an effort to continue the Trend - which remains Bullish for now. We anticipate a blow off ahead of VX roll. The FED has a high probability of announcing tightening in varying...
It's Crude Oil Friday. Friday's can be a nasty day for Sellers, as lower participation provides the potential for large reversals. CL has a habit of dipping into lows ahead of Fridays when in trend (down). It then has an extraordinary history of reversing and squeezing back up into resistance. Good Trading everyone.
Decentralized Finance Projects abound within Ethereum's Orbital Domain. Transforming traditional financial products that operate without unnecessary intermediaries will remain a poignant and important effort. It will have a place in space and time - That time is not now. Ethereum will see very large losses to its Market Capitalization in excess of 80% off its...
Longer term, our entries are 9200-9800. Targets range from 96-106K for BTC after it completes into 2022. If it holds the 25K range, then we will reassess. It appears the near full retracement is trading, we shall see. ANKR after the Crypto Winter ends will be a large holding. BRR has been an excellent BTC Instrument on IB. Wider than usual spreads, but order...
Cash moving up ahead of Expiration next Tuesday/Wednesday into Settlement. Approaching window for larger retracement 21-22 July. Interesting times in VX Complex. Tomorrow is OPEX, it is important to note that weekly patters for ES YM NQ have been fairly consistent throughout Summer Trading. 2 patters have been trading BID Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday,...
Crude Oil Curve remains in Backwardation out to May 2022 @ 66.71. A clear warning sign. We will be selling to open CL SEP as Front Month (August) approaches 73.50, An inverse Ladder will be used off the -.382 up the -.618 The Curve supports our higher sells on the 77 Daily HWB of highs to lows, CL traded 76.98 - Sells to open were closed @ 71.57 although the...
The Chart illustrates both the potential Target for the QQQs high from a positive Draw as well as the convergence from the Negative draw. Where would this leave the NQ? 15,755 ~ Something to consider as the prior Squeeze ahead of the Algo's level for Sell Scale to Open began a 500 point vertical move @ 4:02PM EST. It created the largest Gap and Trap in...
Deposit gains were concentrated @ JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Wells Fargo and Citigroup. Liabilities expanded dramatically faster than smaller, Regional Banks throughout 2021. The government's Fiscal Policies unleashed Trillions of dollars to support small businesses and individuals via stimulus checks and unemployment benefits. There were mass bailouts of...
Asset Bubbles Political Events Natural Disasters Bankruptcy Flash Crashes The perfect cocktail exists currently as all of the below are relevant: Asset Bubbles - Valuations are distorted by any Metric. Political Events - Uncertainty continues to build. Natural Disasters - Warnings on many potential Events. Bankruptcy - The Federal Reserve is buying JUNK. Flash...
2% was exceeded by over 25%. Running Hot or Not. How long will the Bond Market cooperate.
July Protection for Volatility was taken up to Sell M1 as we begin to see M2 (August) uptake 100% of the VXX M1+M2. Settlement will have, at minimum 98% front loaded into August M1. There will be the ever present Gap to close as there is every month. As the CASH VIX and July Contract converge for settlement, the Indices should range. We are looking for 12.30s...