NicTheMajestic

NicTheMajestic

Bullish above 378 Bearish below 373 Short Entry around 376 (Vwap from top, 20 day SMA) Long entry around 369 (Vwap from july low, 50 day SMA, Upper BBand)

NicTheMajestic

How I am looking at the market. Currently scalping the chop with a mean reversion bias. Expecting increase volatility both directions.

NicTheMajestic

Looks like a 50 SMA test. Any lower and we open the door for a test of the 100 SMA. This sell off is different than the last few, feels more like march than june. Wait for confirmation before buying the dip.

03:23

NicTheMajestic

Classic retest of the 20 SMA. Look at the SPY, my gameplan, and a few other indices.

04:27

NicTheMajestic

Economic Outlook for 9/17 Correction. Review of the market using DOW theory, VIX indicators, Mcellen indicators, and SMAs.

NicTheMajestic

Left side is current market. notice the perfect time cycles. Right side is last year. notice how the vix rainbow is signaling on the right but not yet on the left. Safe short would be to give current market another week or 2.

NicTheMajestic

Options Expiration is a hell of a drug. Look at those cycles ending on the 19th of every month!

NicTheMajestic

Poor Breadth Poor Vix Ratio High Vix Correlation Market is over extended (what is this, a 5% rally without a 1% drawdown ?!) Looking for short entries in rate sensitive names otherwise cash. If we do sell off hard, targeting the 50 and 100 daily SMA.

NicTheMajestic

Not yet > 0 on the 10 period correlation. When it does hit 0, consider it an early warning shot.

NicTheMajestic

Pretty strong bull pattern, but this pattern does have regular retests of the 50 SMA. The end of the current cycle could coincide with Jackson hole, maybe tapering news?

NicTheMajestic

Could be a floor for yields. if not, 1.2 is possible. Might mark the end of this rotation. Looking at how commodities and tech react, will we go back to the rotation we had in early 2020?

NicTheMajestic

- Poor Breath - Poor Vix - Vix ratio signaling

NicTheMajestic

- Breadth sucks - VIX is signaling, especially with banks and tech - Earnings next week - Bonds signaling - CQQQ signaling - Bearish bias, but expecting "Le Chop Chop" around here - Playing each level, waiting for volume reversals then trading with your favorite momo indicator

NicTheMajestic

Hedges for the long weekend ?

NicTheMajestic

VIX Ratio back in the 'dont buy' zone. SKEW Index indicates that puts have a bid.

NicTheMajestic Updated 

- First commodities, then the miners, then the industrial equipment, then the transporters, then the financials... now the hedges are coming off. - See support at 320 and 329. - Ratio says put buildup is over - Ratio usually double bottoms (hits green twice)

NicTheMajestic

- End of day VXN divergence warnings - QQQ Closing at old breakdown high - Not satisfied with 'volume backtest' - Very possible rejection

NicTheMajestic

Could easily blow off to 4500, but the downside risk is building.