Pseudorandom

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About me Just random thoughts of a random person, but then perhaps there is a little truth in these thoughts, hence pseudorandom. Pseudorandomness kills the random walk theory :-)
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Markets Allocation
45 % stocks 27 % cryptocurrency 9 % commodities 18 % other
Top Mentioned Symbols
SPY 46% | 6 BTCUSD 15% | 2 GC1! 15% | 2 LTCUSD 7% | 1
Pseudorandom Pseudorandom GC1!, W,
GC1!: Critical level for Gold
30 0 3
GC1!, W
Critical level for Gold

Gold is at a critical level right now. The 50% retracement from the previous high will be a resistance line to overcome. If it breaks and leaves the channel the next stop is the 61.8% retracement at $900. If the 50% level holds, the last two years however also could look like a bull flag and a trend reversal at 50% would not be unheard of. Historically the 1 sigma ...

Pseudorandom Pseudorandom SPY, D,
SPY: Back in the resistance zone
25 0 1
SPY, D
Back in the resistance zone

The SPY has had quite a rally back into the previous resistance zone.This opens up a great opportunity for a short, based on the following observations: OBV is declining during this rally MACD signals loosing momentum and is about to turn negative. Stochastic signals overbought. The risk reward ratio for the short is more than 3:1 when the stop is set to the ...

Pseudorandom Pseudorandom SPY, 240, Short ,
SPY: Bounced at the H&S Neckline - for now
113 0 2
SPY, 240 Short
Bounced at the H&S Neckline - for now

The S&P 500 recently followed a Head and Shoulder pattern. Today the neckline was reached but at the end of the day the index bounced at the neckline. It will be interesting to see if this holds going forward or if a larger correction follows. Volume wise an increase in sellers can be observed, while at the same time the RSI demonstrates weakness of the bulls.

Pseudorandom Pseudorandom GC1!/SI1!, W,
GC1!/SI1!: Is Silver comming back?
34 0 1
GC1!/SI1!, W
Is Silver comming back?

For those interested in a pure hedge of Gold and Silver against currencies the ratio of Gold and Silver is important. In the last 20 years this ratio has been range bound and recently Silver gained against Gold. Although this seems to be temporary we are approaching the upper border of the range and the risk reward ratio of overweighing Silver over Gold is ...

Pseudorandom Pseudorandom LTCUSD, D, Long ,
LTCUSD: LTC towards ~4.20?
136 0 0
LTCUSD, D Long
LTC towards ~4.20?

LTC has been bashed quite heavily in the last weeks. From a technical perspective the move appears to be a ABCD with a target around 4.20. Any short sellers during the last rebound would be looking at the Fibonacci extensions of 1.61 and 1.76 as good targets. If we approach these levels I'll be taking a long position.

Pseudorandom Pseudorandom SLV, W, Short ,
SLV: SLV failed to take some key levels
90 0 0
SLV, W Short
SLV failed to take some key levels

The recent run failed to take some key levels for silver: The 76.4% level of the Mar-May down move as well as the time Fibonacci 61.8% level of 2011-2013 down move. Therefore I see Silver in the short term going lower. The resistance around 17.5-18 has been tested quite a few times in the last year and I see a bottom around that level forming.

Pseudorandom Pseudorandom SPY, 240, Short ,
SPY:  S&P500: Some warning signs
102 0 0
SPY, 240 Short
S&P500: Some warning signs

S&P 500 had some interesting price action recently. It put in a double top and some significant sell off afterwards. The RSI shows some divergence and the next couple days will show if it can recover from this or a larger correction is imminent. I'll be watching any break of the recent RSI channel closely, which will confirm the signal.

Pseudorandom Pseudorandom BTCUSD, 60, Short ,
BTCUSD: H&S on 1h chart
90 0 2
BTCUSD, 60 Short
H&S on 1h chart

We had a head and shoulders on the 1h chart recently. The right shoulder is lower than the left shoulder. Selling volume increased and buying volume declined. If this plays out it should bring us into the 580 area.

Pseudorandom Pseudorandom BTCUSD, D, Long ,
BTCUSD: ABCD Target ~750
101 0 0
BTCUSD, D Long
ABCD Target ~750

After a 61.8% retracement of the 450-685 bull run the ABCD target would get us to ~750. A breakdown to the 76.4 level would reduce the target and anything beyond this question the overall bullish perspective. Expect a bumpy road given the recent volatility.

Pseudorandom Pseudorandom SPX, M,
SPX: S&P500 and DJ long term log trend line
202 1 2
SPX, M
S&P500 and DJ long term log trend line

Both S&P 500 and DJ have been following a long term logarithmic trend line for the last 30 years. It seems that we now gravitate towards this trend line. It will be interesting to look at this chart again in 10 years.

Pseudorandom Pseudorandom SPY, D,
SPY: The McClellan Oscillator & Summation Index
677 0 2
SPY, D
The McClellan Oscillator & Summation Index

Read the Murphy book and came across the McClellan Oscillator & Summation Index. This is my attempt at "programming" it. Hope you find it useful.

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