v2.1 - Update broken chart due too trading view changes.
The global loosening cycle is coming starting with china and soon the Fed in the USA will drop the mirage of tightening conditions. (IMO)
Go long in select area with my personal favorite towards commodity exposed value stocks.
looks like a local top and possible global deflationary environment ahead for the next year or so.
hedge with cash and bonds might be best bet but I would not personally short the market.
Tip: Indicator needs to be improved by normalizing the data from various indices before averaging(not done in graph above)
Hi everyone, I am doing some self study and have created the graph above.
using the equation of exchange M*V=P*Y I have calculated 1/Y.
M = Money Supply
V = Money Velocity
P = Price (S&P index value)
Y = Real Output/Value
Keeping the above in mind I calculate 1/Y (inverse because chart is easier to look at)
1/Y = 1/(M*V/P)
Adjusted Value =...
Looks like the market will seek shelter in bonds very soon. 10Y Bond could hit 0.25 in the next 2 months.
I have been watching markets for 3 years now and am not trading or taking positions on my analysis. I am just hoping to learn over time.
Do not take as financial advise. Please comment so I can't learn.