Spotshooter1983

Spotshooter1983

A mn goes to market in his new truck hauling pumpkins. When he gets home he discovers he lost $1000 on his initial trip. When asked what the problem is he decides he needs more trucks. Welcome to DASH. December 2020 $2.880 billion in sales and a loss of $409 million. Double the sales at the end of 2021 ans still $441 million in losses. So where is DASH getting...

Spotshooter1983

Peter Thiel characteized companies as competitors or originators. As a founder of Paypal - a small space that was blank into a large enterprise - he influenced my investment awareness. Carvana is a company that has a different way of trying to sell cars. It is a competitor not in an original space like Facebook as a startup or Google. Carvana isn't working....

Spotshooter1983

There is better than an 80% correlation between a rise in SPY and a corresponding drop in volatility. The inverse is also true. On February 5, 2018 there was a world wide drop in futures and a rolling stock market drop starting with the US market then rolling around the globe and back to the US. By the open premarket US trading in UVXY - a leveraged volatility...

Spotshooter1983

Narrative: Ancient history - The Nifty 50 were the only stocks to own... Until that price contraction proved otherwise. have the Nifty Fifty become the the Nifty Six of this era? Facebook Amazon Apple, Netflix Google and Microsoft? Absolutely is my narrative based on the percentage of the indices for the Nifty Six.. The $100 drop in Netflix after reporting great...

Spotshooter1983 Updated 

This is a common sense risk reward play using an option strangle strategy that is takes advantage of time decay (theta). Sell the $42 strike January 2024 call and sell the $12 January 2024 put. Collect $7.00. This ETF has adequate size (nearly $1 billion) and been in business long enough to support the idea that it will be around and that the managers have a...

Spotshooter1983

We all are told as traders that 2 years is too long a window for a strangle. Here is a different way to approach a strangle as an investor/trader. First do the due diligence and decisde this is a company you would own all of at the prices that it could be put to me. This is a great company pushing all the right buttons. The strategy: I sold the $42 call...

Spotshooter1983 Updated 

I posted a chart on my investment in CLF prior to this chart. The good news today is the announcement that the company used free cash to retire the series B preferred stock related to the ArcelorMittal deal thus effectively reducing proforma share count by 10%. This is a positive earnings driver for the share price upward over the next two quarters. The $22...

Spotshooter1983 Updated 

Money flow and RSI both positive. Coffee - I like the ETF for a put vertical here rather than a long future position. 45 days maximum exposure. 2% of account value as an entry position. all the best

Spotshooter1983

I am long RJA for all of the reasons on the chart I posted - mistakenly posted as a chart for Apple. My error. Jim Rogers book "Hot Commodities" has an interesting statement on commodities. To paraphrase"It is as if every 18 years God decides to love stocks and hate commodities and 18 years later reverses that opinion." My take is simple. Inflation devalues...

Spotshooter1983 Updated 

Buy the common sell the covered calls. Collect the small premium and place the premium collected in GGN with a 10% yield. Sell the longest dated calls against the common. Agricultural commodities have been rising in price. All of the usual narratives apply: global warming disruption. US midwest crop disruption based on rainfall and global warming - or not....

Spotshooter1983 Updated 

UVXY traded upward 20% on 3 January 2020. that was the day the Iranian General, Solemani, was - pick your characterization basd on your politics - murdered assassinated etc. In February 2018 UVXY rose 110% in one session. In March 2020 The Covid spike was $12 to $130 in two weeks. Absent these outliers, UVXY has dropped from over $30,000 in 5 years with the most...

Spotshooter1983 Updated 

February 2018 was Volmageddon. The thought passed around as a narrative was that leveraged volatility buyers created the spike as a short cover. Here is my narrative then and now: US markets closed down. Rhe world indices followed and neatly rolled around to the US open with all markets - absent a few outliers like Columbia - down. All futures were trading down...

Spotshooter1983

BAC has large reserves that will continue roll out to the bottom line as the bank exceeds the capital requirement of the stress test. BAC has a very large stock buyback in place and will use a substantial amount of this money to support the stock price and the buyback. Buffett received permission to increase ownership to 15% of the BAC common stock without...

Spotshooter1983 Updated 

ProShares has reverse split UVXY 10 times since creation of this ETF. It is most logical to buy puts immediately after the common is reverse split. Fact: There are only been 4 in the last 281 months where SPY has been down 10% for the entire month. Prior to the reverse split last month there were 8 reverse splits that resulted in $5000 becoming $4. This makes...

Spotshooter1983 Updated 

Today I exited a cash secured put trade. I sell 30 day cash secured puts on the drop and buy these back on a rise like today. I am not temped to buy the calls today. I only buy the calls when the common rises twice the 20 day average true trading range. (2xATR). Currently UVXY has a $3.50 average true range based on the precipitous drop after the tenth reverse...

Spotshooter1983 Updated 

I sell and roll a BAC put vertical monthly. This has been a very good strategy for the options trader. The company has a large share buy back in place. Berkshire Hathaway has been given permission to expand to 15% of the common stock. The company is over reserved and likely with earning tomorrow will report the actual amount of reserves released to the bottom...

Spotshooter1983 Updated 

I sold the June 17.5 cash secured puts. This represents 1% of portfolio assets as the potential full loss. This was a mistake. I should have doubled that position size. Excellent company consolidating the steel industry. Infrastructure spend is not if but how large. Managers are beyond competent. CEO is the best in this industry. Buffett once stated that no...

Spotshooter1983 Updated 

FCX out performance to the sector. FCX fundamentally strong earnings and sales growth Estimize joes slightly above pros Buying short dated FCX in the money calls.