Last week the market drifted to a new ATH. It was kinda a sneaky move with low odds considering a lack of volume. One would expect a stronger breakout coming from a multi day consolidation area. Well, larger patterns take time to unfold. From the market structure perspective, which is the only objective way for me to trade, no changes in the sentiment. There is no...
The upswing initiated back in May remains intact. The most recent shallow pullback (23.6%) is complete and the price broke the upper edge of the consolidation. At this point a continuation is expected aiming to reach 15500. The price may return to retest the breakout area to either confirm or invalidate the intent. This is the price-action 101. Too many traders...
The market is reacting to a round number 15k. It is heading to retest the previous consolidation area which is a confluence with 20 DMA. There is no panic sell yet, a methodical correction. I expect the price to remain in the outlined range. The mega tech earnings are coming at the end of the month. An acceleration to the downside may happen if the structural...
The market is holding well above the most aggressive trend line originated back in May. The structural forces analysis is the most objective way to gauge the sentiment . At some point the market will turn around but anticipation of that event leads to missing opportunities within the main trend. 07/10/2021
Despite everyone's anticipation of a market correction and even big crash, the price continue to climb keeping the relentless up trend intact. The technical analysis and simple trend lines help to stay objective and tag along with the price or wait on a sideline for a sell signal if this is your preferred direction. There is no way to say when the sell signal...
The market remains in a clear uptrend but the buy side progress is stalling. The last week consolidation, in a narrow range, suggests a directional move is coming. The action is interrupted by a US Holiday on Monday. The price may continue to grind through the above consolidation area aiming to reach the all time high or make a move to retest the main trend line....
The price is consolidating within a bear flag for almost 2 weeks. In most of the cases the bear flag resolution is a new leg down. There is a potential that the buy side may step in to defend the current low transforming the pattern in a double bottom one. That would be a bullish sign. A confirmation of the reversal comes after the current bear flag top is taken...
The market is in the correction mode. The recent bear flag is intact. A new leg down is expected for the pattern to succeed. Buyers need a motivation to create a strong moment to slice through 20 MA. The first test found responsive sellers. The month end is approaching and the Memorial Holiday may lift the buyers spirit to make the move. The sell side sees...
The action is inside the bear flag pattern. A new leg down is expected for the pattern to complete. Buyers may defend the current bottom and work the way up to transform the pattern into a consolidation area. That would be a sign of strength. 05/23/2021
A false breakdown of the consolidation area led to a swim across the channel. 04/26/2021
Consolidation within a notable bear flag with a potential distribution lower. A failure to continue lower would negate that idea. 4/21/2021
One of the robust methods to gauge a trending market is to watch the price reaction at the trend lines and channels. The S&P market remains in the up trending channel since April 2020. Most recent retest of the lower edge of the channel provided a decent reaction leading to a new all time high. However, the market closed the week retesting the channel structural...
Chart is inverted for clarity purposes. The price is approaching yearly S1 level. It is a rare opportunity for investors. How often one can enter at yearly levels? Be on a lookout. 03/07/2021
Bonds were in the downtrend since March 2020. A larger H&S pattern is in play. Its right shoulder is being developed. The most recent retest of the 61.8% level provided a decent reaction. It means buyers are closely watching the price movement and took a shot to stop the bleeding. This could be an opportunity to enter the market on the long side and hold for a...
A break of the uptrend channel and holding below it has confirmed a change of character. The market entered a distribution phase. Several days of action have established a balance area with distinct edges. The last trading session has created a potential spring (in Wyckoff terms). This is something to watch going forward. If this is the case it may lead to a...
The market is in a steady uptrend since November. It remains quite resilient. A few attempts to break the channel in either direction have failed. The recent rejection at the upper edge of the channel sent the price to retest the lower edge. A potential scenario is to establish a consolidation area and move out of the channel in horizontal direction. That would...
After a consolidation period (a smaller rectangle) the market broke to the upside. This is a good example of a technical breakout when a smaller consolidation takes place before breaking a well established level. That breakout has higher odds to stick. At this point the market is trying to establish a short term top before entering a new consolidation phase. Buy...
Relentless grind is today's market theme. The market is in a melt up mode. Shorts get run over and only add to the upside move. They are the best buyers after all. One need to understand the current backdrop: massive buyback and QE. All that effort is directed to prevent the last year December fiasco and to make sure that Santa rally is on the way. Until that...