The Russell 2000 Small Cap Index RUT, a forward looking leading economic index of 2000 small cap stocks is at critical long term chart support near 1530, for the last 2 years. (See Chart) Small cap stocks lead the 2016 advance, and they are now leading the 2018 decline ! Failure to hold this critical chart support at this time, would certainly suggest an...
The VIX, used by institutional big money , and highly tough talented traders,to anticipate price movement in the S+P 500, had it's 3rd continuous week of trend line breakout to the upside, confirming the price breakdown from the all time highs. Daily Close Only, Weekly Bar Chart which I keep, shows VIX Friday Oct 19.2018 close at 19.89 and at the Apex of a...
S+P 500 is currently inside an increasingly tight "wedge" formation especially evident this week on the 15 minute SPX chart. as price has moved back and forth in an increasingly narrow range. NOTE : Next week will see a strong BREAKOUT of the wedge, either up or down. It could go either way. At this point, all my S+P charts, updated for the weekend, point to a...
My own proprietary analysis of the S+P 500 Daily Futures Chart overlaid with the S+P 500 SPX 4 Hour Chart shows a 45 degree angle of descent trend line from the 1/29/18 all time high in the March 2018 Futures Contract at 2878.50, running straight down to catch the 10/11/18 SPX low of 2710.51. I mean it was a bulls eye hit of support. Remarkable, if you could...
My proprietary analysis of the S+P 500 chart pattern setup on the close on 10/17/18 shows a potential to open up, + break sharply, and very quickly to the downside, possibly starting another leg down in the S+P 500, as soon as 10/18 or 10/19/18 The rally this week has done almost everything that it should have done to bring back the "buy on the dip "crowd into...
Crude Oil has been breaking down in price, during the month of October, after rising to near $77 a barrel. It is now trading near 70, almost a 10 % decline. The correlation with the stock market decline has been readily apparent to me in my analysis, as crude oil has been a very crowded bull trade, ( Commitment of Traders) just like the stock market was.....
Sears Holding's SHLD , which on Monday Oct.15,2018 declared Chapter 11 Bankruptcy, took traders on a wild ride today. The stock rose 113% intra-day to near .70, before falling 43 % to close at .40, still up 29 % today. There are some die hard believers in Sears who are thinking that the brand name is so strong in the 125 year old retailer, that it will somehow...
The Bears were "mauled" today, as a buddy of mine has coined, in a very sharp counter-trend rally that has left them shaken, and unsure what will happen next. I saw this advance coming, in pre-market trading this morning on a rise above S+P 2770, Others were not so fortunate. The advance though sharp, and somewhat breathtaking in scope has not violated the...
Sears, SHLD, is reportedly preparing to file for bankruptcy reportedly unable to make a debt payment due this week. The stock last traded at .5851 cents For those too young to remember, the 100 year old retailer was the Amazon.com,of the 20th century. It's retail stores anchored malls throughout the USA and with it's catalogue, gave consumer the opportunity...
The VIX , a measured level of FEAR. broke out like a coiled spring this past week as volatility soared nearly 100%, reflecting a markedly changed psyche of fear in the market literally overnight Yet believer it or not, some"pundits" , and highly paid Wall Street Analysts are already out there saying the worst is already over..and the market is...
The market has fallen so far and so fast this week, that an inevitable rally like the one brewing in overnight futures, for 10/12 gives the trader an opportunity to short again, at a desired resistance and add to position. Strong hands do not let this type of rally impact them. The simply seize the opportunity given as a blessing, and wait until buyers have...
Watch how big money institutional investors/ traders react if the S+P 500 violates its 200 day Moving Average at 2765.96 on the close on 10/11/18 It will tell you much, just watch how they react. If the 200 day breaks, then the seriousness of this decline will become apparent to the "crowd," and . you know what that will mean, as crowd behavior will quickly...
If the Dow Industrial Average closes below 25300, my close only DOW chart shows price would then enter into a THIN AIR DECLINE , and at this point, it is impossible to quantify how far it could fall. I am not being superlative. DO NOT BUY THE DOW BELOW 25300 Close. This is a very serious decline, and wealth preservation DEMANDS that you treat it that way. THE_UNWIND
The Dow Industrial's Closed at 25052.83 Below Significant CLOSE ONLY Support at 25300 on my chart, an extremely bearish development this afternoon. That puts the Dow now in a "Thin Air Decline on my chart. The next meaningful baseline support to catch an index falling in thin air... is at DOW 23600, almost 1500 points down from here. Extreme caution should be...
I have been writing about my Bullish opinion of Gold for the last couple weeks because of a fundamental opinion shift of mine that the dangers of overvalued stock valuations, the breakout in interest rates, the deepening concerns about global growth and the political instability throughout the world would foster a new "risk on" investment climate that we have...
Before there was the E-Mini S+P 500 Futures Contract, there was and still is the institutional hedge , the S+P 500 Futures Contract, SPZ @ $ 500.00 per S+P point, traded on Globex on the CME. That's right $500.00 per pint. If one had simply gone long on Sunday Oct.7 Open for trading, this week and bought 1 Dec.2018 S=P Contract at 2880.50, and then had the...
90 Days Up Prices in July-Aug-Sept 2018 Reversed By Only 10 Days Down in October It took price 79 % of the time, over a calendar 91 days for the S+P 500 to advance to all time highs yet only 11% of the measured time , the first 10 days in Oct.to reverse all of that advance. ( See Enclosed Chart) That is a telling gauge of MOMENTUM, and right now the market is...
The Dow industrial Average has broken critical 26240 Support on the close at 25598, on 10/10/18 something I had been warning about in repeated postings that the chart pattern said it could do. This break to the downside, confirms a TOP in the Dow Jones Industrial Average at 26951,81 on 10/3/18 , just a mere 7 days ago. More on this extremely bearish turn in...