The 10-year yield has printed a failed H&S pattern. So it is worth looking at it from a technical perspective. Geometry: The H&S target at 1.380 was not reached, instead the yield climbed back above the neckline (blue dashed line). This is a small but important detail. A failed H&S pattern is often a strong continuation pattern. Fractals: The area marked in red...
ADA got rejected at the upper band of the pitchfork (dashed line). We are looking at the pitchfork median (which is also the .382 fib retracement) for a potential reversal. Narrative: Cardano had a multi-month consolidation period. It is currently breaking out with volume. Elliott: We can count wave iv (in green) of larger wave (iii), in blue. If correct, we...
Nasdaq reversed perfectly at Gann level 16372, which is also the outer boundary of the pitchfork (dashed line). The questions is if other Nasdaq components can propel the index to one more ATH (wave 5), or if the top is in. Narrative: Central banks seem in no hurry for raising interest rates, which could continue to propel Nasdaq to new ATHs. CPI is due today and...
Gold moved higher as expected and hit resistance at Gann level 1831, which is also the .618 Fib in the pitchfork. Narrative: Inflation seems to be more persistent that assumed. The never-ending rally in Crude Oil is an indicator. CPI is due today. Reuters expects an annualised 4.3% vs the 2% Fed target. Elliott: We can count wave i (in green) of larger wave...
Bitcoin moved higher as expected and is consolidating on Gann level 66127. Elliott: We can count wave 4 (blue minuscule) of larger wave iii (in green). Gann: Support: 66127 and 62124 Resistance: 74509 Correlations: BTC has not correlated much with anything in the past months but yesterday we could see stronger correlation with QQQ. Should Nasdaq further...
FB bounced precisely on the 0.5 Fib retracement (large blue box) of the previous wave 3 (yellow count). The breakout of the descending wedge gave us confidence to re-enter the trend. The metaverse narrative is driving price at the moment. At a later stage we will see that the metaverse idea may fail for several reasons, but that time is not now. When euphoria...
Nvidia usually goes up around 3-5% per day, even 17% yesterday, and there is absolutely no reason why it shouldn’t continue to do so. Heavy institutional buying is expected to catch every dip, but it is rather unlikely this stock will experience dips at all. Elliott wave: NVDA is unique in that it only has impulse waves 3, but no corrective waves 2/4. Therefore...
Facebook continues to unfold in 5 waves to the downside (green count). We are looking for wave v to complete at Gann level 320 or 311. Gann level 320 is 7 levels from the ATH, which corresponds to a 315 degree rotation on the square of 9. Level 311 would correspond to a 360 degree rotation. Potential drivers of volatility are Mars in trine with natal Venus on...
Despite Bitcoin strength and an Analyst upgrade, Square stalled and got rejected precisely at 251 Gann level, slightly above the 50-60% retracement zone. Our idea then was to build short exposure, as we can count a complete wave (b), expecting further downside. Price is back at the volume node low today. Should price turn and make a higher high, the count needs...
BTC got rejected quite precisely at the 55828 Gann level. This corresponds to the 2.382 Fib extension of wave (i). If price breaks down and out of the channel, we may expect choppy action & further contraction of volatility. The Elliott count suggests a wave (iv) is due. Should price rally higher, the entire count needs to be revised. It would be quite unusual...
QQQ/NDX is currently at the 50-60% retracement level, along with AAPL, GOOG, and SQ. Sellers usually try to step in this zone. Gann level 15010 provided resistance with precision almost to the dollar. I can’t help but interpret the count as a series of abc waves (in green). The good news is that this makes the entire structure corrective. The bad news is that,...
Ethereum is known for double top formations, and price is at the same level as the top of 16 SEP. The structure may be an ending diagonal with an ABCDE count (in red). Wave E is often truncated (the placement of wave E in the chart does not indicate that wave E will reach that level). The Gann level at 3720 hints at another potential resistance. We can observe...
Alphabet, as expected, bounced off the 20 week MA (in red), and we closed longs at Gann level 2651. But the count hints at more downside in the mid-term. Since the ATH, price declined in ABC patterns, so that we can assume a WXY or a complex ABC is unfolding. If correct, sellers may step in at the 20D MA again. A possible area is the blue box (.618 to .786...
Gold made a low on Gann level 1726, precisely on the .618 fib retracement of the previous wave (blue box). This low likely completed wave (c), blue count. Soaring oil prices fuel concerns of inflation, which appear to be the major driver for Gold now. Currently price consolidates on Gann level 1747 after it got rejected by the 20 day MA on 4 OCT. We can now...
AAPL continues to decline in a complex Elliott structure. Our TD Idea provided a nice profit as we sold into high volatility at the right moment. Likely we need more patience now as another drop seems possible and IV may expand again. Gann level 138 provided support. If price continues to be weak, we look for the next Gann level below at 132. That level...
Our last entry at 42800 has given us a nice profit so far. Bitcoin is now at the median level between two Gann levels. We can count 5 waves to the upside (green count), assuming that wave v is coming to an end. That would complete wave (iii) of a larger degree (blue count). Sun squares natal Sun on 6 OCT, an important and potentially problematic aspect. An...
The Elliott wave count in ETH has been complex and therefore we can look at the construction as a Wyckoff accumulation. The spring precedes the STs (secondary tests), which is rare but possible. We have left the stage of LPS and are now looking for signs of strength (SOS), potentially a wave iv (green count), followed by another higher high. The current wave...
Alphabet approaches Gann level 2651 and we can count 5 waves to the downside (green count). The 20 week MA (red) is located below at 2630. An idea would be to reduce short exposure on Gann level and further observe if buyers step in. Ascendent conjuncts natal Mercury today, however it stands in trine to natal North Node. Mars squares natal Venus on 2 OCT....