Gold moved higher as expected and hit resistance at Gann level 1831, which is also the .618 Fib in the pitchfork.
Narrative:
Inflation seems to be more persistent that assumed. The never-ending rally in Crude Oil is an indicator. CPI is due today. Reuters expects an annualised 4.3% vs the 2% Fed target.
Elliott:
We can count wave i (in green) of larger wave (iii) in blue. If correct, we should see a pullback before momentum expands again into wave iii of (iii).
Gann:
Support: 1810 and 1789
Resistance: 1831
How I trade it:
The Gann levels 1810 (also the pitchfork median) and 1789 (also the lower end of the pitchfork & .618 retracement) present two zones with a good risk/reward ratio. The idea is to scale into long exposure here. If price moves out of the pitchfork, the bullish bias is likely invalidated.
Call IV is high and we may speculate on a short-term volatility contraction, while being mindful that an explosive move to the upside is a potential risk.
_______
In my analyses I combine Elliott waves and Gann theory to identify turning points in the markets & derive high-probability trading ideas. The strategy is to build leveraged exposure when markets are likely to expand, and to sell options when markets range and volatility contracts.
BTO = buy to open
STC = sell to close
STO = sell to open
BTC = buy to close
TD = Theta Decay (for example a strangle or iron condor)
The views and ideas expressed in this analysis are that of the maker, they are provided as educational information and do not constitute financial or trading advice.
Narrative:
Inflation seems to be more persistent that assumed. The never-ending rally in Crude Oil is an indicator. CPI is due today. Reuters expects an annualised 4.3% vs the 2% Fed target.
Elliott:
We can count wave i (in green) of larger wave (iii) in blue. If correct, we should see a pullback before momentum expands again into wave iii of (iii).
Gann:
Support: 1810 and 1789
Resistance: 1831
How I trade it:
The Gann levels 1810 (also the pitchfork median) and 1789 (also the lower end of the pitchfork & .618 retracement) present two zones with a good risk/reward ratio. The idea is to scale into long exposure here. If price moves out of the pitchfork, the bullish bias is likely invalidated.
Call IV is high and we may speculate on a short-term volatility contraction, while being mindful that an explosive move to the upside is a potential risk.
_______
In my analyses I combine Elliott waves and Gann theory to identify turning points in the markets & derive high-probability trading ideas. The strategy is to build leveraged exposure when markets are likely to expand, and to sell options when markets range and volatility contracts.
BTO = buy to open
STC = sell to close
STO = sell to open
BTC = buy to close
TD = Theta Decay (for example a strangle or iron condor)
The views and ideas expressed in this analysis are that of the maker, they are provided as educational information and do not constitute financial or trading advice.