More sideways is highly highly unlikely. Boom or bust! US market cap to GDP 157% (LOL). Perhaps the most ridiculous thing of the last 11 years is when the moving monkeys on CNBC repeat "this time is different". For that to be true, the market should have no problem going to 180% of GDP. Think about that. Good luck. Yields rise, it tightens credit conditions....
Asia is getting very close to completing their EM development and will eventually move away from pegged regimes vs the USD as the US slowly fades in terms of GDP percentage vs the world. That is how it worked with the Euro and its only a matter of time with the Yuan. With China just starting to very slowly let their currency depreciate to boost growth and...
Havent come across are clearer indicator than this. Matches up perfectly with market bottoms in 2003 and 2008. Clearly defined and looks like a small breakout. It appears December 18 may have been the bottom and beginning of a new positive trend. Hard to argue with this ratio.
Watched an episode on Real Vision by the Structural Momentum Analysis. I did my best to re-create their measurements and came across this. The DeMark on RSI using the settings of Structural Momentum Analysis for the BASE money supply. I crossed it with QE dates and used another Real Vision legend in SautiagoAuCapital's theory of a rise in $ value as the world...
TLT/SPX ratio vs SPX (M, No Log). Havent gotten a C13 on the DeMark yet but should be soon. It looks set to explode after the 10 year build up into the very last inch of the bullish wedge. The calm before the storm :(
What made these companies that much more profitable?
Late Cycle indicators. Watch for yield curve steepening. As Druckmiller says, a recession can not be official without a corporate profit recession which leads to significant repricing of equity. It appears we are at the inflection point of another 2016 or repeat of 2000, 2007...Q2/Q3 is the do or die. If we get through without negative YOY earnings , it could be...
weekly no log
weekly no log
Weekly no log with 100EMA, RSI & MACD
Almost all USD pairs seem to be in trouble and breaking huge long term trend lines. This chart seems to confirm it from another angle
Monthly log chart dating back to 1976. Parabolic in 2012 to say the minimum. How this recession plays out is beyond me. Something has to give. Based on my other charts, a pretty picture is not depicted. Clearly all that excess money supply is in financial assets. Makes sense that as soon as corporations experience an earnings recession while at the same time,...
Capital flows matter