If we're truly in a weaker USD cycle, copper is likely to get a natural tailwind from just the fall in the currency.
That's when you don't take into account the supple conditions and the expected demand growth for copper due to OBOR, global growth and potential Trump infrastructure spend.
Interesting that USDJPY no longer keeping up with movements in the US 10 year yields. Could signal that USD pessimism is extreme or that the market is beginning to anticipate that the BOJ will move up their Yield Curve Control targets from 0% yields.
The Ruble continues to lag the movements in the both Brent and Crude oil over the last few months. Could indicate the possible chances of further decrease in Russian interest rates, however, if Oil continues to rise, the chances of the Ruble appreciating much further should increase.
Short USD/RUB looks to be a good position at the moment. Ruble not yet really moving to confirm the higher oil price, but could move considerably to the upside in the short term if oil remains stable at these higher levels.
If you expect an uptick in inflation like I do in the US, the Financials could be a good way to play this.
With USD down more than 10% this year, commodities having risen by more, and continued labour market tightness, inflation could surprise to the upside over the next few months and $XLF could be the proxy to play this, rather than being short bonds - which...
Hugh Hendry, Bernd Ondruch, and Steve Diggle have laid out the German real estate case in depth. You can find out more here if you aren't already aware:
www.youtube.com
If you take into account the rigid supply, the tendency for asset prices to increase in Germany due to the Euro, and lastly Brexit, it makes perfect sense to invest now for the next 5 years....
Chart showing BABA/AMZN over the last few years. BABA is breaking out from multi-year lows. I think this pair continues to perform as BABA's growth accelerates and Amazon gets beaten down with it's high valuation and reliance on the Western consumer.
