YaroslavBirchenko

YaroslavBirchenko

Gold is taking off. Working to new highs towards 1350-1360. There is a strong point of resistance, the 2013 trend line, but once we pass that there is a lot of room to work with. 1376 is the next strong point of resistance. Until then there is a lot of room to scalp. A good place to put stop losses for longer-term trades would be 1308 because if price reaches...

YaroslavBirchenko

Automakers are under pressure. Trump has been alerted by the US Commerce Department that imported cars pose a security threat to the US economy. We wonder what he will do about it. This will inevitably have a negative effect on Japanese and European automakers as vehicle exports play a large role in their respective economies. Volkswagen AG (VOW) This stock has...

YaroslavBirchenko

In Europe the situation is dire. The European Central Bank is giving us more and more dovish signals. Benoit Coeure and Francois Villeroy de Galhau governing members of the ECB have both stated that the slowdown in the European Union is significant and that the interest rate may need to be altered. This week members of the ECB, BoE, FOMC, BoC and RBA are giving...

YaroslavBirchenko

The dollar continues its advance. Investors see a global slowdown but figure the US economy to be the biggest and strongest so they put their bets on it coming out ahead. Trump has signed a shutdown avoidance agreement but is now pushing for a national emergency in order to siphon funds from the budget agreed on by congress. Very sticky situation that could lead...

YaroslavBirchenko

Oil climbed, and broke through the neckline of the reverse head and shoulders pattern that has been in play for the past few months. The growth was due to supply cuts and reduced output from OPEC countries. Russia has also agreed to participate in the cutbacks. Saudia Arabia will be repairing a damaged offshore field, and this will decrease supply and increase the...

YaroslavBirchenko

Russia and the US are butting heads again. Senate Foreign Relations Committee and both Republicans and Democrats are pushing for much stricter sanctions. A new bill called the “Defending American security from Kremlin Aggression Act (DASKA)” of 2019 will impose new sanctions on Russia. The new legislation will target Russian banks and individuals as well as...

YaroslavBirchenko

In the forex market, everything is determined on a relative basis. The best outcomes for trades come when we find currency pairs that are polar opposites in strength and fundamental stability. It is always wise to value both currencies instead of just one. How do we determine what is weak and what is strong? The normal process of qualitative valuation, like is...

YaroslavBirchenko

The Euro has hit some volatility, oscillating from poor industrial production numbers across the EU. We have not seen production fall so fast since the financial crisis. Growth in the Euro zone will remain weak. The technical outlook for Euro is flat and negative. On Thursday we will see German quarterly GDP growth, even the expectation of a 0.1% growth is...

YaroslavBirchenko

There are a few conditions developing for oil to break out of its range. After the three month tumble oil has reversed and is cued for a break of the reverse head and shoulders neckline. The slowdown of growth and risk-on speculative hunger is a factor of oil not taking off already. We expect an eventual breakout from the range crude has made for itself these past...

YaroslavBirchenko

Stocks around the world are growing. Growth signs are seen in Asia, Europe and US futures. US lawmakers are trying hard to avoid another government shutdown. Government officials have said that they are in “agreement in principle” on border funding which would avert a second shutdown. If only we could see a trade deal formed between the US and China, the whole...

YaroslavBirchenko

In his speech today BoE Governor Mark Carney said that global growth this year is expected to be at around 3.25%. Since the Brexit referendum, the pound has fallen 25%, causing incomes to fall, and slowdowns all over the economy. Historical stability, solid financial institutions and a well-built social/political system allow the country to maintain afloat. Carney...

YaroslavBirchenko

In Europe and Japan car makers are leading the advance on the stock market today. A new concern for automakers is Car Sharing which has taken off in cities like Moscow. BMW and Daimler are joining forces to combat ride hailing software and car sharing. DMW’s DriveNow unit which is their version of Car Sharing together with Daimler operate a total of 20,000...

YaroslavBirchenko

The Central Bank of Mexico kept their interest rate unchanged, and the USDMXN was left notably unchanged. The currency is at the bottom of a channel and is tightly coiled. Sporadic price movement is expected as a bear trap and then the Mexican peso should fall in value compared to the dollar.

YaroslavBirchenko

As expected President Trumps state of the union address did not bring about increased volatility in the market, but we did get some good news for next week. Mitch McConnel and top negotiators said they could have a deal ready by Friday. Something to sign and take away the threat of another government shutdown. This would bring stability and could drive the dollar...

YaroslavBirchenko

Euro bears continue to push down, eyeing fresh one month lows. This is mostly fueled by weak data incoming from the Eurozone. This negative bias is expected to continue as the European Commission publish their newest forecast of the economy today. Currently the dollar is exhibiting strength and hitting the Euro hard. German industrial output fell further,...

YaroslavBirchenko

The pound has continued its decline since its recent break of the 200-MA. The pair dipped down below the 1.29 mark and quckily bounced from the key Fibonacci level of 38.2%. The global trend is a channel with a bearish slope down. If we get a firm break of 1.2900 we can see a fall down to 1.2830 right above the next level of support.