I am more naturally bullish on crypto than bearish. My recent bearish analysis is based on short-term (monthly) movements.
Longer term, I see massive expansion as crypto goes mainstream and BTC reigns as the defacto base pair and store of value.
Elliott wave counting and to a...
We have a head and shoulders with a higher left shoulder and a target around $5650.
My Elliot Wave count shows an current wave 5 could extend to a ratio of 1.618 to wave 1 giving a downside target of $8700. (Corrected extension---chart shows incorrect fib extension)
We have a 100% retracement from 25 Nov breakout at $8360 and I would expect strong support...
Possible bottom in.
Still below 10D, 30D EMA and longer SMAs.
Needs to break out of down trending channel on good volume and start a Buy TD Sequence.
Has faded multi-day breakouts before.
Wait for major trend line to be broken for a safe entry.
No good indicator signals to confirm at this time.
Waiting for confirmation.
Broken channel and down trending resistance. Making tentative higher lows.
Broken above 10D and 30D EMA. 10, 30 & 50D SMA converging, which is a strong lead to a potential reversal.
Bullish indications on 1D MACD-H, RSI and EFI.
Stochastic showing slightly overbought. Expecting a 2--4 correction and then bullish behaviour.
Will long if can break and hold above...
Possible falling wedge may break in upside reversal.
Will likely under-perform Bitcoin for next weeks.
$8 support weak and failed.
$6.75 next support from LHS funnel and prior spikes down.
1D TD 3S.
Price below moving 1D 10 EMA, 30 EMA, 50 SMA, 100 SMA.
1D MACD-H bullish divergence. No RSI or EFI confirmation.
No trade or Short to 6.75. Then...
Lots of fib extension lines converging at this point. Is this a strong indicator of the final top for this bubble?
If so, then I expect a rapid correction with a bounce and then a return to the long term trend.
Incidentally, the box in the chart is from my original charting showing my expected bubble development (the upside and downside was cleaned off a little...
It all lined up a little too neatly for my liking, but then I guess charts are a little like statistics---enough massaging and you can make them say anything you want.
Food for thought (and absolutely not a prediction).
Looking at the descending flag from ATH, we are near the top of the channel and are testing the long-term 50% retracement---which was recently strongly rejected (long 13% wick) .
However, I believe momentum continues to build to the upside. The price appears to be consolidating into the (admittedly heavily skewed) funnel. We may see major volume in the next two...