I was going to do an analysis on the 1D chart to follow up the last post re: 1W chart.
However, whatever I saw before that made me want to analyze the 1D, I no longer see. Lost it to oblivion.
BUT.. the 4h is proving plenty interesting imo.
The triangles outline what might be Wyckoff's "Reaccumuluation with Rise" pattern, however this whole snapshot of BTC seems...
Roman Bogomazov, one of the great Wyckoff analysts, discusses that this pattern of "Reaccumulation After Decline" is the weakest of reaccumulation patterns.
I personally take this with a grain of salt when discussing the crypto markets. A bunch of tulip-freaks, we are.
As we can see from results, the market tests and price markup were textbook examples.
Looks like a final accumulation maneuver in Wyckoffian study, the 'Back-Up to the Creek' (BU), just before a major price increase.
Through the back-up (BU) phase, on the much shorter timelines, we see support/resistance peaks on both green bars when price is increasing, and red bars when decreasing....which pretty much means there exist both positive and negative...
..and before I get an earful - I TRULY dislike American football.
HOWEVER... a 3rd down conversion is a pretty damn good analogy of the buy walls that are put into place that carry the price action across a downtrend into bull turf.
Ever notice those? Whereas we may expect price to simply bounce down off of the downtrend, someone, or somewhale, puts up a...
My first harmonic pattern prediction.
I may have 'fibbed' a few points by about 5% to make it work. (Get it? Fibbed?)
This is not trading advice! Unless the prediction comes true. Then, and only then, is this trading advice. Retroactive conditional credit.
I hope everyone is watching KEYBTC. Some ridiculously interesting stuff going on here!
Uncanny fractal business points BTC due north.
Also, on the Binance chart (KEY was just introduced on Binance a few days ago) we basically painted a fractal of the history of Bitcoin since 2013.
I made some posts in the past about the possibility of Alt-coin fractals being...
Just an update of the last post. Quite uncanny.
There's a particular form of cognitive dissonance where a person will see patterns where there are none.
Feel free to call me crazy if I'm makin' this stuff up. :)
Unfortunately, market circumstances are not the same as in Feb (or perhaps, fortunately?), and it will only take one big pump or dump to send us...
The yellow line is a scaled down copy of the crash leading up to the Feb. 6 low.
Playing out this fractal would point us right about 5400, which is a well known support line and what is possibly the start of the bubble (Nov 12th).
Based on this pattern, which has held pretty consistent, we're looking at two pumps in the very near future.
After that, I will be Tethered until the path forward is clear.
It is possible that the two recent dumps marked on this chart have not actually occurred yet, though this fractal wave is growing shorter in time, in general. Ergo they likely disappeared...
This whole decline is a big 5 week handle coming off of what is a near perfect cup pattern.
There's low probability of breaking out above the cup, but looks like good probability of at least re-testing the top one time (a 30% increase above current price).
The Stoch RSI... i have never seen the Stoch index look so clear and bullish, and for so long. This is on...
BTC -1.23% fractal waves playing out cleanly to the end of the triangle.
If the pattern continues, we make a slight move upward, and then go down to 7500. (and then...? Do we exit the triangle?)
Indicator divergence would support this as it is a small short-term bullish divergence, with a much longer bearish divergence behind it.
Marked in red lines, the tops...
These are not fractals - they are on nearly the same timeline. BTC, obviously, found a 400% bubble in December, where SPX500 saw 12% gains. However, scaled down to size, it's pretty interesting to compare.
Note that BTC beat SPX500 to the bottom by about a week in February and as well to the double-top late Feb/early March, but then SPX500 leads the way out of...
Raise your hand if you ignored that bearish divergence.
I applied percentages to some possible short-term outcomes based on:
- the length and depth of the bearish divergence on the 4h charts
- the depth of that ominous H&S that classically broke halfway thru the right shoulder
- the relative strength of the major long-term trend lines