claydoctor

claydoctor

Just what I am seeing, taking off those rose colored glasses.

claydoctor

Say what you want about the number, this latest dip was due to this pair's action. Trump V China trade war has currency implications written all over it or visa versa. High yield corp bonds also watching closely as a market indicator. Holiday in NK Tuesday, perhaps they will mark that with some actions? Watching, waiting, all sectors fragile right now. Only the...

claydoctor

The DOWT can not get much attention sometimes, but it is an all time indicator of broader market action, and a leader. We have a triple wammy set up. HS top, major trend line support, and also right at the 200 day MA, and indicators on an hourly don;t look so dramatic, but back out to the daily, and woooo nellie, lots of room to run yet (downward) if that is what...

claydoctor

If you trust indicators, and this particular one has been very reliable lately. Close to R2 levels, and hourly top trend line. Note the black thick long term lower trend line, if we break that, it will be violent down. If we bounce, well, geopolitics and all that, who really knows right now. Did call the bounce in VIX last week, riding that for now, until the...

claydoctor

If oil does the red dipper thing again, which looks, like it, could be just too much for markets to "bear".

claydoctor

Currencies wars have never stopped, Trump needs dollar lower, but everyone else wants their currencies lower also, and China has had just about enough of this pattern, looking to lower theirs for a change, hence the Trump V China currency war. Fed wants to raise, cant get inflation or wages to increase, need a stronger dollar to raise too. Lets see, who usually...

claydoctor

See chart. Note the timing in cycle days between the last one and this one, and all of them actually, surprisingly similar, wow what a cycle. Exactly the same, if we of course break down now. Equities have to bow to this leader. Our vix bottom indicator is actually below the extreme levels of past bubble bursts. No where to go but down (chart), and up on the...

claydoctor

Trend ending? Sure looks like it.

claydoctor

Each drop to support has been smaller each step, last one in half of the previous, so now? lets see if we get a green arrow for a change and support holds, indicating a bottom formation, or not, just like each time before, AKA HOW LOW CAN YOU GO. For that we need an unexpected surprise, could one of the fangs, like apple, earnings disappoint unexpectedly? we...

claydoctor

Red verticals are August. Red arrows are corrections, blue arrows pretty good dips. Note the bottom build indicator, at pink level now, has plenty of room to run to the first red horizontal line, which IMO we see next major support. Noticed huge call options action in vix and vxx.

claydoctor

Dollar and equities pretty much in trending sync for long time now, whole world waiting for this bounce zone to take effect, but since red vertical line, the relationship has changed. Last couple times it did not sync... wait for it... major equity crash/corrections. So_____________________ fill in the blank. King Dollar, is just that, sometimes it is the...

claydoctor

see chart.

claydoctor

Fib levels right on HS tops, with a possible rounding top, and previous low may offer temp or perm support. Might be another down day tomorrow until support zone, then we will have to see.

claydoctor Updated 

My speculations are locked in, posting this out of love of community. Just see the chart. I have no idea of the reasons or causes, but I do believe patterns mean something even if I don't understand them, and they repeat, until they don't. Play it or not, play it how you decide, if you do. This is risky, but is it really? The investing world has been expecting...

claydoctor

China and its currency manipulation has been the single greatest factor in world equity market moves for many years now. see the chart. The rise in the value of the Yuan has been its greatest in some time without a devalue, which is way overdue. China wants the Yuan to be included in the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights (SDR) basket. In order to meet the criteria...

claydoctor

Ok, so, the vix is an index, indicator of trade sentiment, not a physical thing. Then, should we consider using the same indicators and judge patterns the same as a stock? Good question. My answer is, sort of. It is like using a particular word, for lack of a better one. RSI is old, it is wise, it is consistent, it can be trusted, sort of. Some say it lags,...

claydoctor

or at least make it tilt hard. HS, right shoulder about done, and dollar yen battle about to begin, with central banks and trade wars about to commence. Also, China inflation hopes are done, and they will lead the deflation trend down. Like it or not China rules, and the FED has to know that they cannot unwind QE balance sheet or raise rates while deflation...

claydoctor

see chart, patterns simply reflect human nature, buy and sell patterns, risk tolerance for duration time frames, rates, inflation, balance of trade, fear and greed. Just IMO, nothing more, nothing less.