I know I'm a bit crazy... But from last weeks COT Data 18 was a kind of limit. Hope I am right...
From COT Data we are still in a kind of neutral zone with S&P500. My preferred (staying on hold till Dec. Fed Meeting) is rather an upward movement to 2230 than down to 2100. From the positioning 2300 are possible on break of 2230.
Quite a Rally after surprising OPEC meeting... From COT Sentiment a further correction to 42-44 Region would have been the "better choice" but there is significant positioning to take out 52 and move upward to 58-60...
More and more it looks that since last December a rising wedge in Gold is forming. We had false breakouts till cross resistances and corrections back int the wedge. Striking here is that we currently have a really STRONG short term resistance from the falling triangle... If we break it, there are still 2 long term resistance! On break of these the Target region...
Compared to Brent the whole Offshore Drilling Industry had a miserable "recovery"... Presenting here Seadrill Group in comparison with Brent shows the upward target and the fair value would be around 24 (currently 9). From the chart the correction target from the rising wedge was hit almost on point and we should expect a reasonable upward movement. Remember: Fair...
From the classical Wykoff poit of view/calculation a strong buy....
After having reached my target of 1.92 the recent OPEC production cut will lead to a extremer short covering compared to March. Volume is SURGING! If non OPEC members confirm production cuts we will see SDRL soon above 12-15...
On break of 48 the formation of a intermediate range inverse head and shoulders is about to finish... Targeting 57 region. A strong resistance will be 61 region, so all the way up now... It is worth thinking about leveraging with offshore drillers... If Russia today agrees to the OPEC deal we will have a lift of...
Some time ago I introduced Fortress Paper a producer of high security paper for central banks as the ideal hedge against inflation and financial/political turmoil... If any country from EU want's to leave the Euro Region they will need new bills and Fortress Paper (Swiss Landquardt AG) is their producer. Think about Italy, Greece ... Buy the rumor, sell the fact!
OPEC Meeting in Algier... Crude should tumble till Tuesday/Wednesday.
I hope you start thinking about the long term view... Would further Yen weakening really surprise you ? Don't you think the current REALLY LONG TERM Support is strong enough. Before betting on further Yen strengthening wait if support breaks.
I would call gold as my this year's worst trade since with the increased physical demand COT data are some bit of difficult to analyse. STRIKING this week a really significant long reduction by managend money... Striking a high net short positioning by commercials and Striking that the short term COT index (13 weeks) is in a sell signal region. Of course data...
A look at the monthly USDJPY chart shows that we are in the build up of the right shoulder of an inverse head and shoulder formation (since 2003). We are now testing the support line at the 100 region and may even get to 90 (just my personal guess, but rather 97). Target Ranges in red and green are calculated from point and figure charts. The long term target from...
As expected in my last Silver Chart/COT Update the correction continues.
We're about to complete an inverse Head and Shoulders Formation in NGAS. The retest of the Neckline should complete tonight/tomorrow and the Target would be 3.30. Worth trying...
Compared to HYG/JNK Crude corrected "a bit too much"... 46 should be seen soon but the magic should start above 50. COT Data developed as expected last week. I currently believe we're going to see commercials net short% positioning in the range of 13-14%, so get prepared for the next rally!
Support holding, no changes from COT Data..., starting a long till 1340-1350. If we break resistance at 1340/1350 my next target will be in the 1420 range.
BOJ decision is somehow hard to understand, especially concerning the fact that asset purchases by BOJ are LOW. I have the imression they were keeping their powder dry and preparing for the consequences of a FED Rate hike reaction of the markets. From the economic data this is the last possibility to hike before winter... And "Winter is coming"...