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We executed a 31 days put option on the NZDUSD. Price pierced the previous monthly lows. Net positions of large speculators are bearish while strong demand for the dollar remain untamed on the backdrop of sustained risk-off sentiment. We look ahead for RBNZ for move hawkish reaction to the economy

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We forecast a gradual demand for the JPY on the premise of global economic uncertainties. This idea is supported by almost 50% decline in net short positions of large speculators on the JPY since May 2022 from negative 110k to 54k. However, speculative positions on the Euro recently flipped to the negative to dampen the optimism of a recovery on the Euro. BoJ has...

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The Euro Area GDP expanded by 0.6% on quarter in Q1 2022, twice a 0.3% growth in the previous estimate, and above a downwardly revised 0.2% gain in Q4. Improved export activities. Exports increased 0.4% while imports fell 0.6%. Concerns around the war in Ukraine resulting in inflationary pressures on food prices and supply disruptions The ECB is set to end 8...

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We expect that a bullish outlook for gold before the end of the first quarter. Bullish potential seems to have been tempered by macro economic factors and capital shifts to alternative assets like the cryptocurrency. The long term northward trend line since June 2019 is yet to be violated. There's adequate net long position to support the continuous up trend....

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looking at the chart we have marked out key levels with active Options strike prices supported with high volume and open interest. We plan to observe how price reacts at 1.3300 and 1.2500 levels prior the the expiration of these contracts. In terms of price action , Cable still maintains an upward trajectory in line with non-commercial sentiments and seasonal...

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Declining UK10 year bond prices represented by the blue line overplayed on the GBPUSD price chart suggests rising yields. We can observe in hindsight that the bond correlates inversely to its exchange rate. We have also seen a shift in net positioning of large speculators shift to positive territory. Data from CME group on forex options contracts suggests...

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Strengthening of bond yield spreads in favor of CAD bonds and bearish seasonal outlook provides a strong case for shorting the pair. Market sentiments still lags this set up.

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The charts is detailed enough. The market sentiments is still a driving factor for the Aussie within the backdrop of storng bond yields. We need to be mindful of the monthly high levels that may provide strong resistance as well as seasonal patterns

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The declining yield spreads was a major attraction for considering a sell but a lot of factors i snot making me confident to sell. 1. price at monthly lows which could provide support for a price reversal 2. Seasonality divergence. Price has not respected historical patterns So i will adopt a cautious sell just to go with the trend

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Looking at the yield spread between the German 10-year and US 10-year bonds, the Euro may be undervalued giving more potential to the upside. Though the correlation between the prices of EURUSD and the bond spreads may not be perfect, in hindsight we have seen prices trail this phenomenon. Asset managers and hedge funds have been placing big bets pushing net...

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AUD bond yields have been declining relative to that of NZD. Price is trending downwards nicely to reflect the bond yields but price is resting towards the monthly lows that could provide a strong support. we are seeing a maxed positioning in AUD sentiments but the seasonal forecast may defy the bearish play. would consider a strong sell if price can break below...

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The chart explains it all. The bullish run for the NZD may be short lived by seasonal forecast, extreme net positions of Non commercial traders and possible bearish bond yield spread

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The chart says it all. generally we could expect a weaker dollar in the weeks to come. However, the CAD still shows a stronger Bond yield spread than the Dollar. Market sentiment iin terms of the commitment of traders showed declining net short positions in favor of the CAD. In terms of price action, USDCAD is currently below previous month's low at 1.3737 levels...

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Sentiments seems to have shifted for the Aussie towards net net long region. Bond yields spreads between the Australia 10-year bond yields versus the US 10 year bond yields would have favored the Aussie for a continuous push to the up side. However, a look at the 20-year seasonality cycle in the futures market may indicate that the air maybe range bound in the...

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Seasonality probabilities suggests a 64% chance that CHFJPY will rise in June based on 12 years historical data. Though Non-commercial sentiment suggests more long bets for both currencies, seasonal sentiment may be the deciding factor. In terms of price action, price still needs to deal with monthly highs of 112.19. We may be looking for retest along the trend...

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A review of the COT report for 21/04/2020 reveals that the Smart money may have been gearing up to accumulate the EUR significantly as price approaches March lows. The hedge funds show aggressive long positioning that coincide with strong support levels. Though the markets expect negative growth in GDP numbers in the coming week, a weakness in dollars may give way...

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Gold net long positioning may have reached extreme levels as price hoovers around a major supply zone. Hedge fund net long positions dropped by 9% while the retail positioning increased by 4% presenting a set up to move price the other way. We may see a retest of the weekly or monthly highs but it may seem that the decline is inevitable

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Non-Commercials and Non-reportables are already approaching extreme levels in Net-Long positioning as @ Jan 21, 2020. Non-Commercials = 68K, Non-Reportables=25k. Net positions at 97% and 87% respectively. We may expect to see exhaustion as price already at a previous month's high. We may see price attempt to retest the supply zone before a reversal occurs. We...