The monthly chart of the SPY has a few indications that we may be in a correction that is more than just a short term one. I dont't think we can say we are in a bear market with the price below 2 of the averages but only 1 of the average in a downward slope but it is safe to say we are close.
- Lower highs and ...
Looks like AAPL may have formed a heads and shoulders pattern with the recent closes at the neckline.
A break below the neckline could result in a ~26% drop using the head to the neckline as a reference.
Lets see how this play out.
The SPY monthly chart shows two clear run ups and the resulting retracemet. The first cycle started in 1994 and ran up for 71 months and then retreated 76.4% in less than half the time it took to reach the high..
The second run up ran for 60 months and retraced 100% of the run up in 17 months.
Our current up ...
Monster has been on a nice run since the gap up. The question is whether or not it has the power to continue the trend.
Monster reports earnings in 3 days. A break above the current resistance would be a buy signal and a stop is a break below the red tend line.
Lets see how it plays out.
What is interesting at this time is that the red horizontal resistance and the blue trend line basically intersect if we break out in the next few days, around $440 with the next resistance at the 50 day moving average $470. This would result in a 10% move up.
If this intraday correction is impulsive, we may have just completed wave 4.
If this correction is a zigzig or other than impulsive, we could see a little more movement up.
The bottom line is that it looks like we will be going lower sometime soon.
The weekly chart would indicate that if we continue in the current channel, that our next move most likely will be down through March and into April of this year. This would be a 5% pullback or 43% APR, 15% retracement if you use a 3x ETF like SPXU.
The other potential option is that we break out of this channel ...
SPY struggled with 1500 and failed to close below it.
It looks like we could finish the elliott wave 4 and could turn into a wave 5 movements.
The wave 4 could form somewhere in the gap and the wave 5 target is the 50 moving average on the daily chart.
Lets see what happens today. Your thoughts?
The PPT came in with guns loaded at 3:30 today and saved us all. The distribution going into 3:30 was strong and steady.
It looks like the next move may be another ABC or a 5 wave down impulse.
Lets see what next week brings.