greenfield_br

02:04

greenfield_br

dear fellows, we've recently identified a leading to coincident relationship between BTCUSDT@binance and USDTUSD@coinbase. although they do not always match, BTCUSDT tends to converge to USDTUSD in a matter of hours, when there is a gap, and follow it closely or soon after, otherwise. we've observed that new lows or new highs in USDTUSD are indications of...

03:50

greenfield_br

dear fellows, it came to our attention the monthly chart of HYG, BTCUSDT, SPX, RUT. they all belong to the same class of speculative assets. of them, HYG is likely to have the greatest demand for liquidity as it lives out of refinancing its cash flow, let alone its debt. notice how 1. they are synchronized in what concerns the bottoms 2. HYG renewed the lows at...

01:39

greenfield_br

hi there, dear fellows. we believe this 18k test has better chances to breakout this support since as compared to previous test RSI is not oversold as compared BTC has way more volume right now Best regards.

03:49

greenfield_br

We're moving on in our study of BNBUSDT chart. This time in shorter timeframes. We see recent regular dips spaced by around 11h 30' each. It recently moved above WMA200 which is bullish, however without volume, thus we regard it as false positive. It also recently moved to the lower half of the upward channel, which would coincide with a coming test on its bottom...

01:46

greenfield_br

we have inspected the BNBUSDT daily chart in the quest for medium term cycles. we've noticed a regular 4 month cycle from late May '21 until mid May '22. the recent regularity makes us believe a next bottom is coming. this analysis is not concerned with the amplitude of the move, solely its timing. best regards.

09:36

greenfield_br

We see a greater downside potential on BNB than in BTC. BNB has fallen less from its ATH. BNB has extremely less volume to sustain its current price levels BNB has to fall twice the same percentage (square of the fall) approximately in order to match corresponding level of BTC in the chart BNB has way less demand (thus, price support) than BTC Hence, it looks to...

05:09

greenfield_br

hi there, fellows. we've shown in previous idea the inverse relationship between DXY and BTCUSDT. the main components of DXY are EUR and JPY. we see an RSI bullish divergence in EURUSD, as well as an RSI bearish divergence on USDJPY. that being true, DXY won't breakout the 109 resistance, thus now will BTCUSDT breakdown the 19k support meanwhile. coupled with the...

02:12

greenfield_br

hi there, fellows. we've noticed a very peculiar relationship between USDTUSD and BTCUSDT pairs. since late june USDTUSD prices have served as gauge to short term future moves of BTCUSDT. notwithstanding, we're at the longest divergence between the two within this period. that hints us to expect a near term up move on BTCUSDT to the mid of the channel, at around...

06:01

greenfield_br

hi there, dear fellows. with all the subjectivity that channel drawing has, we've identified a downward channel in BNB. it anchors in the top candle on Nov 8th, and bases itself on the bottom of the 2 legs down that followed it. that showed us we've just tested its top last week, and now we're moving down to its bottom, most likely at $50 on late October. BNB has...

04:27

greenfield_br

hi there, dear fellow. we've recently stumbled upon this chart, in the quest for a leading gauge for the dxy. this chart depicts a paradox. in white, US10Y-USIRYY; in orange, US10Y-US02Y. if you remember our previous idea, namely on the DXY and the yield curve spread (US10Y-US02Y), we've pointed out back then that a steepening of the yield curve would be bearish...

03:06

greenfield_br

we point out that the current SPX levels is as high as they were in late May, however MRI levels were higher, then. we were also unable to test WMA200 in daily chart, something we're doing right now. this could be a divergence, or SPX could be front running our MRI. in case SPX is a front runner, we'd expect a side way move withing the depicted gray box, just...

01:35

greenfield_br

we've plotted US10Y-US02Y against DXY. we've noticed a near perfect fitting between them. as yield curve continues to invert, it drives higher DXY and that is bearish for risk assets, and vice versa. best regards.

03:42

greenfield_br

Our publicly available Market Risk Indicator v3 (MRI3) has clearly picked in late July. We believe BTC prices have as well, thus making the top of 1d chart ichimoku cloud the bound of current move. This alone suggests SHORT as the proper side to be in for the time being. Thank you for your audience. best regards.

02:34

greenfield_br

We believe as DXY breaks bellow 106.1 in the 15m chart, BTC is likely to break again above 23k and potentially to cross above WMA200 as SPX goes 4150+. Currently, there is an invert relationship between DXY and SPX, BTC. We're relying on that for our core analysis. Although geopolitical and economical landscape are dire, financial world is ruled by different...

03:13

greenfield_br

dear fellow traders, the hourly chart suggest a top at the WMA200 at 23300. the daily chart is in the middle of a congestion zone well represented by the ichimoku cloud. we believe given the current geopolitical moment in east asia, we might see a test to the bottom of that cloud potentially in the region 21k5, 20k5 in the next few days. this idea is supported by...

03:12

greenfield_br

There is a relation between BTC price levels and USDT + USDC combined marketcaps, i.e. the total quantity of the two largest stablecoins. Since the latter have been shrinking recently we expect a fall in BTCUSDT price to around 19k during the first week of August. Thank you!

04:42

greenfield_br

it is our belief that USDT and lately USDC issuing contributed to the expansion of bitcoin price, in the same manner that M2 / fed balance sheet did contributed to SPX rise since long. henceforth, its currrent shrinking should cause BTC prices to fall alongside.