Hit a bunch of targets and trailing stops in the recent legs down. Still carrying most of my swing position but I'd probably be looking to hedge in my profits on these around 4170. Update to:
SPX may be setting up to reject the 76 retracement of the 2022. If you've followed me any length of time you'll know I've spoken about this for a long time while it was setting up and the 76 fade is my fave trade. Could be a huge one here. Taking pops at big bets. Long 3900 puts.
If BTC drops and repeats the common norms we've seen in ratios of time it takes to complete a bull trap and complete the second section of a fall (Both in historic BTC prices and in general in these types of market moves), this would give a forecast of us remaining in a predominately bear market for at least three years and perhaps heading into five years. And...
This smells like a stop run to me. As many of you will probably know, my thesis is most bull traps will stop around a 76 and we'll go really strong into those areas. Here we have this type of setup. Really high RR shorts here with stops a bit above the 86 fib.
Please keep in mind we may still be in a bat pattern, so be careful. However, if we're in a classic bull trap where the high is in and we're just in a retracement; this should be the high about now. If this is the high, typically the following swings are quite easy to map since they relate to the previous ones. With our current ATH and retracement high,...
Another huge inflection point pattern on another big stock. They are everywhere! Head and shoulders implied targets marked in here. Stops above the high. Crazy up would be possible if high broke, but if not ... this is about to take it in the teeth.
Follow up to: Action since the original forecast has been highly supportive of a Return to Normal phase. We've bounced back to apporx the level shown for it and held a shallow range around there. Something seen many a time before a breaking market. Maybe it's time for these moves to play out.
Big pop on potential bad news into the common retracement level along with a textbook harmonic. Looks like a good spot to try a short.
I think we're inside of a strong DXY uptrend. My original big USD bull forecasts were posted mid 2021. Posted big exits near the high. And starting to think we're into the next trend leg up. I am naturally sceptical of persistent moves which makes me wary of buying with a DXY weekly chart like this but I've been shorting EURUSD / AUDUSD etc recently...
I believe we're into the top of a bull trap. I've made various posts supporting this as we headed into area a bull trap usually ends. - - Now we have our first signs of bull failure with price rejecting the attempt to break the 76 fib. The forecast here is based on an estimate of the move if the big weekly chart bull trap breaks in the same general...
Previously I posted "It's Crypto Short Day": Today is crypto size up day. Since the time of this post we've seen the early signals I was looking for. I think there will be bounces along the way, but BTC is shaping up to head to $7000. For passive swing targets see: XRP - SOL - DOT - ETH - ADA - DOGE
Previous analysis posts linked at bottom. I have previously laid out my cases for: Gold bear. USD bull. Stocks capitulation. In previous times we have seen gold and stocks crash together we usually had gold rallying while stocks were dropping and USD was up in the FX markets. We have these same conditions now. Interestingly the rally comes right to a 76...
It's possible through today we've seen the high of the bull trap in the Nasdaq. Loading up on long positions here based on overall big SR levels and local patterns. If this is a top, can be heavy selling in the weeks/months ahead. If not, very little to risk shorting here with stops justt a bit above recent highs.
Recent rally has been strong but expressed itself in a bat pattern which may be telling us it is a top. I am short now and would ideally like to see a rally Friday if we drop to set up next entries.
Credit for this perspective goes to u/RS3175. They shared their log Elliot waves with me and I found it so interesting I had to chart it up for myself. They've done better labelling of the wave than I have. I'll post their pic at the bottom of the page. Firstly, what are we looking at? A logarithmic chart covering all of the SPX trading history with the entire...
It seems the bulk of people either expect to see a crash or a blow off coming soon. I find myself wondering what it might look like if the market can successfully make a fool out of most people. I think this choppy wave 4 set up would suffice. First a dump to 3800. Then a rally to 4500. Then a strong and persistent breakout to 3200. This could catch a...
It seems the bulk of people either expect to see a crash or a blow off coming soon. I find myself wondering what it might look like if the market can successfully make a fool out of most people. I think this choppy wave 4 set up would suffice. First a dump to 3800. Then a rally to 4500. Then a strong and persistent breakout to 3200. This could catch a...
We might be at the start of a short accumulation pattern for a dump to 3800. This would be a series of drops and rallies ending inside of the last drop (Downtrend), probably giving three main entry levels to build up a short position and then turning into a near term capitulation pattern down to 3800. 3800 would be a good target area for this swing. Probably a...