I'm a bear. If you've not started following me recently you'll know this. Presented detailed macro bear analysis in 2021 and 2022. Nailed a lot of good moves in 2021/2022 and got the memo it was a bad time to be short early 2023. Since then I've spoken mainly short term bull plans - but overall I am a bear. I just know there's a time to bear and a time to let...
PLTR was one of my favourite picks for a short in 2021. The setups were really obvious seeming to me and the pushback against the idea was absolutely intense (Especially for a stock that was already in a downtrend). Previous targets of 10: And 5: All targets hit and a strong bounce off the lower target. This might be leg one of Elliot complete.
Follow up to: It seems like so long ago, but in 2021 if you posted short analysis on things like BTC and PLTR people would legitimately mock you saying, "You must think you know better than Cathie Wood (And her team of analysts). In retrospect, they were not all that tough to beat. But I think maybe the "Pain is in the price" now, as they say. I'm willing to...
Here's a good general rule for things that go hyper parabolic and then crash. -They'll typically come down 80 - 90%. - The crash will typically end after spiking out where the parabolic phase begins. Once these have happened, there's speculative value long and extreme warnings for shorts. PYPL has these conditions in place and also has an AB=CD into the...
At this point I am not entirely convinced my overall bear thesis is correct. I am starting to think I may have been able to use a set of good signals to work out high probability resistance levels in 2021 which have produced good shorts but were ultimately pullback levels rather than top levels. The big bear thesis has not failed yet. I do still think there's a...
Update to my previous series of bear forecasts on AMC in 2021: We've now completed all of the drop. We might have a butterfly low forming. There's all the hallmarks of a harmonic low in place (Dismal news etc). I like the RR here.
We all know that rising interest rates mean falling stock prices. It's been repeated endlessly over the last year with people getting up in arms about the stupidity of the market to be rallying with interest rate hikes. To elaborate on this, here's the massive interest rate bubble of the 1970s. From 1975 - 1981 US interest rates would go up a whopping 500%!...
I made some posts about the Lira back in 2022 but shortly after this all my major brokers went exit only liquidity on the Lira and since I could not trade it I stopped paying attention to it. Look what happened since then. This is wild. Still no liquidity on this. I'd actually take a pop at shorting this if there was. Anyway, just another fat tail TA test....
This is not a trade I am making. There's not liquidity for this and even if there was my desire to remain sane would make me very wary of fading this. With that being said, purely as a TA stress test exercise, I think this is a high.
If we're in a bear trap we should be at the end of it, or very close. I'm close to just flipping bear and following breaks but I think we still have a good shout of bullish momentum. We might enter into a squeeze to 5000. Would be a hell of a move if this slingshots.
VTI now has a classic bull trap formation. Big decision level here. Were we to see a rejection of the attempt at a new high and breaking of the 2022 low we'd likely only have seen the early section of the VTI drop. A spot to be careful for bulls.
Early 2021 I posted a chart showing how we could match up all the stages of a bubble topping on big SPX charts. This is a follow up forecast along with various examples of historic crashes to support/explain my analysis. This is a more detailed look at how the bear side of this move would look if we were to see a conventional bubble pop. IF a true "Return to...
BB invented the smart phone, and that concept really caught on. But it didn't reflect in the BB stock. BB was once very top of the game. But things changed. One has to wonder if similar fates are in store for mega stocks like AAPL and MSFT. While this seems crazy based on what we're used to seeing from these stocks, it also would have seemed crazy for BB at...
Market has not done any of the things I expected to see for a short trade recently. Starting to think the original bias may have been good and we just spiked out a bit. Low tolerance for moves against me as a bull. I think anything downside could be ugly. Would cut bull positions quickly (And probably just remain flat for a while, I dont like whipsaws)....
I think we may be close to a low in this but even if so I think we'd be due to spike out the current low. May or may not go long here if we make a new low/hit short target. The faster the sell the more likely I'd be to reverse just after my target.
SPX broke supports last week and is retesting them now. Shorting with tight stops. Far target is just before 4300. Stops trailed if we get to 4450.
DPZ currently holds a low on the 76 retracement and has got as high as the 50 fib. Most of the time when this happens the bias skews towards the bull side and the optimal trade is to pick up long entries on the 61 retest. Price should not break the 61 (Maybe with wicks) and certainly should not trade under the 76 in this setup. This dictates the stop loss area....
Update to : Original limit order filled at 480 and was good for a 60 point bounce. I didn't update here (My laptop died and I didn't have login details for this site) but posted review of plans at 4540 on Friday saying I thought we'd head lower and was trailing stops on longs. Friday broke supports, I think it's likely we see this a couple 100 points lower now....