We might be at the start of a short accumulation pattern for a dump to 3800. This would be a series of drops and rallies ending inside of the last drop (Downtrend), probably giving three main entry levels to build up a short position and then turning into a near term capitulation pattern down to 3800. 3800 would be a good target area for this swing. Probably a...
Maybe metals are getting to full extension.
Pending orders on the 76 retracement of the recent rally (I think this might be the high but these are dynamically adjusted if not). Would love to see a drop and hold for a possible wave 1 - 2 of Elliot being in here. Ideally some sort of sharp crash event in USD to set this up. Limits set. Will attack the trend is this rally sets up off a dump.
I've been waiting and waiting for my chance to get a good entry short BTC. This looks like it. Entering short now betting on the follow through of my 2022 forecast.
We could be now in a downtrend where lower lows and lower highs are made. If we are, selling would pick up quickly in the following breaks. Worth trying super high RR shorts here. Short 4290 Stop 4309 Target 3700 RR 1:15.
Back in 2022 (And maybe in 2021, I can't remember) I proposed gold has made a bubble move. I remember someone taking extreme exception to me calling gold a bubble because gold is priced in USD and therefore the driver of gold is the USD value and gold can not bubble. They told me this is what happens when "Crypto traders come into real markets". Which was funny...
This is a forecast of what it would look like if SPX went into a full bear break now which was compliant with the norms of historic crashes. It’s a sequential trade plan. Which means as one swing hits it supports betting on the next swing in the pattern. If swings do not hit - it was wrong is no longer useful. Full Crash Forecast: Subscribers, go to this...
We're extremely close to what I'd consider to be a very important bear break - but we've not yet broken. As a general rule of thumb, the best value trades are the ones closest to where they fail. Have really big SPX longs on now with stops just under the weekly low. Looking for this to hold a double bottom if the long is working. Pattern here currently looks...
Have a friend who's been asking me for 6 months if it's a good time to go long bonds and consistently I've said it looks early. But if there's going to be a time to go long bonds, I think now is the time. Stops a bit under the current lows
Had this mapped up for a while and been waiting to see if it fills. Oddly, this filled recently in what turned out to be a false quote and then a days later made he real rally. If the harmonic plays out, we'd be in the top of yield - a least for this swing.
Problems with China are all over the news now with Evergrande filing for bankruptcy and opening down 90%. Is any of the previous examples of this are anything to go by, Evergrande goes up a few 100% now. That's what's the norm - as crazy as it sounds. Looking at the China indices, they currently hold 76 supports. This is a real make or break level for them. If...
Been watching this one a while. My friend bought this back in November when he correctly called the indices low and - well, DIS was not the best pick to express his bet. But because of this I've been watching it and I like it now. I'll have a try on the butterfly low.
I believe US equities are in a bubble. It looks starkly obvious to me. But I've bet on bubbles many times. I've always ended up being right but sometimes they went substantially higher first. This is an update to a previous forecast of what it would look like if we were in a bubble top now. As an example of what it can be like if you're early on a bubble, I...
I think this is setting up another dump but am very interested in longs in the 4200 area. Pending orders set for there. Probably a full pivot on net bull bias if this area breaks.
I think we probably made an important breakout at 500. Much is made of the selling since then this this would be absolutely typical in a bull move. It can comfortably go lower inside of a simple trend continuation pattern. When I've posted bull analysis on NVDA recently people have screamed at me it's a bubble - and I agree, it looks a lot like a bubble. But,...
I think we may be close to a bit of a crash in USD relative to the 2021 rally. If we are 85 looks like a great spot for this to go to. Possibly make a major reversal back to being ultra bullish USD at that level - if that level breaks, I might have to revise plans to have a much bigger short USD trade plan. Multiple majors trading at SR levels now. Good shout...
Corrections usually end at 76 fibs and usually the first pullback from that should end a the 61 fib. At this point, we can buy NKE with a stop under the 76. If we’re right, we should see i go green and say green soon after the entry. Trading Signal Long 98 Stop 74 Target 442
I'm a bear. If you've not started following me recently you'll know this. Presented detailed macro bear analysis in 2021 and 2022. Nailed a lot of good moves in 2021/2022 and got the memo it was a bad time to be short early 2023. Since then I've spoken mainly short term bull plans - but overall I am a bear. I just know there's a time to bear and a time to let...