Looked like a little bit of futures selling EOD today. ES is still overbought, did not short anything, and certainly not going long until MFI and RSI hit oversold. I'm still waiting for algos to start cycling so I have confidence in my indicators.
AAPL daily indicators went oversold, wouldn't be surprised if they pump AAPL now to sustain the melt up. Too much divergence for me to stay bullish on the market, and it's not a good idea to trade scared, so I'm opting to stay out. Seeing AAPL oversold is keeping me from shorting the market. I was really hoping for indicators to start cycling again, but looks...
ES and RT MFI are overbought. NQ dropped below the line. I dunno, seems like the algos aren't in control, people just buying stupid shit like Bitcoin and gold is breaking out as well. Should've stuck with the AAPL/NVDA rotation trade, lol. That would have paid really well. Decided to close out my EWJ puts, and take the next couple of days off. Not gonna...
EWJ just double topped, country is in a recession FFS. Grabbed some March puts.
RSI hit overbought, ES RSI isn't there yet, so possibility of more pump Monday. Going all cash for the weekend, will look at possibly shorting something Monday
MFI went overbought. RSI isn't there yet... Kinda tempted to make at least a small play with put options, we'll see.
Just showing the daily plot, the reason why I'm so reluctant to go long is because there's so much MFI divergence on everything if you look at the daily. NVDA, PCAR (my fav, lol), every index, etc. There's still a chance that the algos pump it Monday to get 3hr and daily RSI into overbought territory. Holding off on any big trade until then. ECB meeting next...
My indicators aren't telling me shit, but it sure looks like a pump and dump today
Overbought on 3hr, daily, and weekly charts. ECB meeting next Thu.
Indicators are neutral before the PCE numbers come out tomorrow. NQ MFI is oversold, and RTY MFI is overbought. No idea which way the market goes tomorrow. Regardless of the numbers, it'd be stupid for the Fed to cut rates this year. They're too stupid to realize that they effectively cut long term rates with their Dot Plot in December. If they had any...
Oil futures have an inverted H&S or cup and handle formation, if oil breaks out we'll see rebound inflation next month. Something to watch out for. Resistance is at $80. Might cycle back down if there's a truce in Gaza next week, but I think Biden is full of crap, lol.
MFI is oversold but RSI isn't yet. Meanwhile RTY is overbought on both RSI and MFI. Probably just another whipsaw day tomorrow as everyone is waiting for PCE numbers. I might do a straddle on something that's close to an options break point with cheap premiums and small spread, like maybe XLF. But that's tomorrow, lol. I noticed yesterday that oil is climbing...
MFI hit oversold premarket, I guess the melt up continues, lol. Lost a little beer money on those EWZ puts I bought Friday, gonna see what the market looks like Wed and maybe take a small stab at shorting for PCE release Thu premarket. Really strange market, AAPL is red again and dragging on SPY but looks like NVDA is goona keep the market green.
ES also overbought on my 3 hrs chart, closed everything. Today is Ponzi Friday, so I don;t plan on shorting anything until EOD. Hard market to short but I might buy a few puts, probably just beer money though. Too risky to go big
Well I said they'd try to pump small caps, and they sorta did. MFI now overbought but RSI isn't. Doesn't really matter much, I don't plan on going long until PCE numbers are released Thu morning. Pretty good chance I take Mon/Tues off.
As I promised yesterday, RSI went further over the overbought line and MFI went overbought. Closed out all of my long positions. Done for the week.
Overbought and at ATH. I think there's a good chance the market gaps down Monday, but can't really short anything because NVDA appears to be melting up. You can tell some of the traders and algos did a pump and dump on the gap up this morning, but not enough of them to make it worthwhile to short the market yet. I'd like to see the algos dump on indicators...
RSI barely touching overbought, and NQ usually overshoots the line, so more than likely safe to hold our long positions for Ponzi Friday tomorrow. ES is oversold, RTY is not, so maybe they pump small caps tomorrow. My plan is to exit out tomorrow, go 100% cash, maybe take Monday off. Not sure if the market continues to melt up or if the algos start doing the...