Last year the Euro markets hit all time highs (ATH) during a recession, not it's Japan's turn, lol. Recession: www.nytimes.com The amount of disconnect between the stock market and reality is truly amazing. It just goes to show it's all about money supply and not fundamentals. Difficult to short anything right now.
RTY went overbought, decided to unload my long positions a bit early. I still think PPI numbers will be good tomorrow, but made some decent money on the CPI dump so calling it good.
RSI and MFI hit oversold on the 3 hr, but Europe looks bearish. If the market gaps down 2 days in a row, it'll fill that second gap. Gonna wait until open tomorow and possibly do an easy play like PCAR gap fill, lol. Yes, it left a gap this morning.
Well, bonds were down earlier today and actually went up with the auction. $25B worth of 30yr and they bought into it, wow. So that means yields go back down, bond traders are buying into the projected rate cuts. (Keep in mind it's 30 yr though) One of my followers mentioned small caps earlier this week, forming a pennant on the daily, and I think it breaks...
Chart pattern looks like a breakout but indicators went overbought on my 3 hr. I closed out my small position in garbage stocks. (I was right when I posted that yeserday, lol) Return was good in terms of percentage, but I didn't have much. Who wants to risk a lot in garbage stocks? Not really sure what happens next week, might just sit and watch until CPI...
WOke up late, lol. Happens sometimes when I'm all cash. Anyways, there's the CPI numbers I cautioned against last week. Came in higher than expected so down goes the market. Definitely a bigger "dip" than I expected. Just posting the 3 hr chart because ES isn't oversold yet. My best guess is reversal tomorrow/Thu, then a pop on Friday on PPI numbers, but...
Overbought again, but I have no idea when this melt up ends. All cash for teh weekend, today is Ponzi Friday so not gonna short anything either. Next week might be a bit of whipsaw so staying cash for the weekend.
RTY isn't overbought on 3 hr or daily so more room to pump garbage stocks, lol. Tomorrow is Ponzi Friday.
I noticed a bunch of stocks forming pennants lately, small caps (IWM/RTY1!) has a huge on as I mentioned earlier today. I think CPI numbers Tuesday determines the direction, the only thing that can tank the market is inflation. I might run a straddle with options Monday before close since I have no idea if CPI comes in above or below estimates. GM is a good one...
Interesting action in TLT because of the 30y auction today. I really should have thought about this last week, puts would have made some money. Anyways, TLT spiked up at 1 pm eastern after the auction, then market priced it back down. I bailed when it didn't go down at 1pm, made some beer money. Had I shorted the spike I'd have a lot more beer money. Just...
Overbought on my 3hr chart, especially MFI, but it's a melt up so i don't recommend shorting. Just plotting this to show that small caps are a better option for Ponzi Friday tomorrow. We may just see sideways action again or ES1!.
3hr hit overbought, unemployment number tomorrow before market open. Decided to just close out my long positions because 5k was my target. My guess is down tomorrow then up on Ponzi Friday, lol. Might stay out until after CPI next Tues. PPI next Friday should be good news.... Not sure if or when I'm gonna get back in, playing it by ear. Everything I owned...
Pretty much another nothing day on the market, there's a bit of a short squeeze in garbage stocks that causing the counter rotation from tech to small caps. Looking at the indicators, NQ MFI is almost oversold, I expect it to get there tomorrow and we get another tech rally either Thu or Ponzi Friday (or both). I'm holding a bunch of stocks but no options, might...
Hey I'm back, I just haven't posted lately because the market is in a big ass meltup. Not much you can do besides buy and hold. Maybe BTFD, when Powell speaks, lol. I think the melt up continues until the monthly goes overbought. Avoid garbage stocks, especially during earnings season. Look at PTON, lol.
From a trading perspective, the only thing you can do is to buy calls when indicators go oversold during melt up. 3hr indicators still work for that, I actually bought calls on Fed day, though I should have waited until the minute before close. From an investing standpoint, you should just buy and hold. BTFD, lol. Pay attention to inflation numbers...
Both RSI and MFI hit overbought, probably a pump and dump tomorrow. Chart patterns are similar to the early Oct pump, could be whipsaw for a few days here then dump next week. I'm bearish on AAPL earnings, but daily MFI hit oversold on the AAPL chart, so not playing it. Options premiums are too high to short garbage stocks on earnings like ROJU and PTON. PCAR...
Not looking good for my favorite stock, it's not moving up with teh market but probably will move down with it. If the market drops later this week (AAPL earnings?) PCAR will more than likely break support. No position, I don't short PCAR because it always fills gaps down. CAT is easier, though oversold now.
Woke up late, sorry. I'm not sure if RSI hit overbought, but the market is sure acting like it did. Fed meeting press conf this afternoon. AAPL earnings tomorrow AH.