klonaway

klonaway Updated 

Based on simple patterns on the 4h and daily, it seems that current bull run is reaching its limits : - RSI bearish divergence now clear on 4h, and hidden on daily - Elliot count can hardly exhibit anything else than a full impulse (either 12345 or 123456789) - Rising wedge (green) meaning exhaustion for the bulls We could go a bit higher, even reach the 10k-13k...

klonaway Updated 

Well, I'm not the kind who likes drawing shapes and calling them fractals as if I knew the future. But here, the story is troubling. BTC has already made twice the funny sideways move shown on chart, and I can't help but feel it's the same story all over again, with time and price ranges becoming smaller. Same thoughts each time, same decisions each time on my...

klonaway Updated 

Looking at LTCUSD on the 4h chart, I can't help but feeling very bearish. Arguments for the bear side : Elliott count : we can find nine messy waves in both bullish impulses in recent price action Fibonacci extension : compared to first impulse, we reached an almost perfect 1 to 1 extension Fibonacci retracement : depending on where you place the start of...

klonaway

Following my current thoughts about LTCUSD (bearish) and BTCUSD (bullish), I'm taking a look at LTCBTC. My thoughts : we broke without hesitation both yellow resistance (in play since august) and blue resistance (in play since BTC's ATH) we just hit 0.01 resistance (active for at least 2 years) we got an Elliott count for 2 impulses labeled as ABC here...

klonaway Updated 

BTC just broke out upwards of the triangle it had formed for more than a week in a boring way. This favors one of the countless Elliott counts out there, as shown in chart : First bull move was a purple ((12345)) impulse, and a neat one Textbook red ((ABC)) retracement to 0.618 followed it Next steps got messy and made most of us rethink our count... ...

klonaway

The ETH rally is coming to an end. It could make another leg up, but the bullish momentum is dying. In terms of price action, it has tested 170$ resistance, which was a strong support on the way down. In terms of trend lines, it has been stopped by yellow resistance in play since august. In terms of Fibonacci proportions, it stopped just shy of 0.618 golden...

klonaway Updated 

BTC has been retracing recent bull run in a complex fashion since Xmas. Breakout either way is imminent, yet could take a few days, depending on the whim of a whale triggering volume or the complexity of the retracement. The question is : which strategy should be put in place to enter the next big move, and which prices for orders ? First, let's take a look at...

klonaway Updated 

BTC shows early signs of a bullish will to keep retracing its huge dump formed on the daily time frame. Arguments in favor of this bullish scenario : the huge dump of mid november / mid december has only retraced to 0.382 fib so far a continuation of bear market would probably lead to new bottom. Too violent for hodlers this quick ;-) Elliott count...

klonaway Updated 

As most indicators indicated, BTC has started retracing the recent bull run. Bears seem to have taken a pause upon reaching 0.382 level, which coincides nicely with a resistance. If bears confirm this pause, we can expect a retest of previous green support as a new resistance, which coincides very nicely with 0.236 fib level. The red zone would be a nice price...

klonaway Updated 

After a bullish move interestingly countertrending stock markets from 3200 to 4000, BTCUSD has started retracing down to 3800 (0.5 fib), and has now halted on this strong red support, accumulating since then. At this point, both bullish and bearish cases are arguable. On the bear side, the accumulation takes the shape of a descending triangle, indicating a clear...

klonaway Updated 

And now we're waiting for BTC to decide its direction on the 4h and possibly the daily time frame... BTC has formed a beautiful diamond pattern which should break out within next 36 hours. The diamond is formed by the lower part of the purple channel (bullish on the daily time frame), and the yellow channel (bearish on the 4h time frame). Bullish case : a retest...

klonaway Updated 

Let's assume such a bullish spike was not expected. Let's consider the fact that it all started with a huge whale buy that took 5 seconds to complete. How can we factor the resulting chart into an acceptable TA ? From an Elliott point of view, we could argue a corrective wave 4 upwards, which could end beautifully at the top of purple channel on a 4h TD...

klonaway Updated 

So, the Elliott count seems pretty straightforward here, and that's a (price) relief ! We are currently somewhere between the end of a yellow wave 3 and beginning of wave 4. With a little tweaking of the purple channel in play since November 23rd, we can expect the yellow wave 5 to test and be rejected @4000 tomorrow. This would make a local top, marking the end...

klonaway Updated 

Today's price action seems to validate chart's bullish Elliott count. If the count is correct, intraday traders can target a retest of recent high @3750 expected for wave 3, and 4h traders can target the full impulse @3800, where we'll more likely be rejected by multiple resistances, including strong pink resistance in play since the downfall from 6k last...

klonaway

Trying to understand that move which all started with a 5 seconds whale buy... Bullish case : - we just hit bottom with green wave 5. - we just started an impulse which is reaching green wave (iii) on purple resistance. - we can then expect a pullback to retest that resistance as a new support before green wave (v). Bearish case : - we are about to finish red...

klonaway Updated 

BTC just hit the top of the current falling wedge (blue), which could either be a breakout to the upside or the beginning of a wave 5 (red). Here I add to my previous short position with a tight stop-loss, hoping for a wave 5 down to 3050 (TP).

klonaway Updated 

BTC has been trying to rebound from its big dump during last days, but faces the red resistance and is consequently building an ascending triangle with higher lows. The dump stopped around the multi-year old dark red support and the lower part of the pink channel. Considered together with the very low RSI and most indicators asking for a serious rebound, it...

klonaway Updated 

EOSBTC has been narrowing in between blue trend lines for quite some time. Breaking those trend lines should result in a significant move. If the bulls start charging, we'll be faced with two red resistances and MA200 leading to a very uncertain bull run, without much room for profit from a long position. I would probably stay out of it. But if we go bear,...