mabonyi

mabonyi P

There are remarkable similarities to the failed support and lack of strength after an attempt to accumulate. The future is a little bleak, but maybe we'll do something different this time.... I hope.

mabonyi P

The classic forex-like behaviour of BTC this week seems to continue playing out. Sunday/Monday: stop hunt rise and drop Monday: false move week beginning, a drop lower Late Monday to early Wednesday: continuous rise with small level test above / at Sunday stop hunt Early Wednesday: midweek reversal, top of the pattern Mid Thursday: second leg of the...

mabonyi P

Too much talk I see online about the 21 weekly. It really isn't as important as the 50-EMA on the 1W, because while it is rarely seen, it is the true mark of the beginning of part two of a cycle or the end of the macro trend. When price closes above the 1W 50-EMA, it is a very bullish signal. When it closes below or lingers on the 50 EMA, it will breakdown in the...

mabonyi P

This analysis I think speaks for itself and it is just a warning to those who see it, to temper their enthusiasm and be careful. Like in 2019, we have a CME gap at the bottom of this bull run, around 23k to 26k. There is a credible chance that these strong parallels in circumstances and fractals as circled are more than just symmetry. This local top is shaping...

mabonyi P

We are currently in the penultimate Spring phase of the smaller 3 months Wyckoff accumulation pattern and in the final phase's last Show of Resistance in the 2 year pattern. That would definitely make sense from a market psychology point of view too, as BTC grows in adoption and legitimacy, the applications of blockchain ignite re-evaluations, and holdings are...

mabonyi P

The two sections highlighted are zoomed out quite a lot and you can see that they bear remarkable similarity to each other. This is the 4H chart of Binance over the last 2 months, compared to the same symbol on the 1D timeframe from late 2017 to today. The area in question is up to May before there was a small correction and continuation. We should expect from...

mabonyi P

It is about as 50/50 as it gets, it seems. I would lean towards upside because of the power law midline I posted earlier and the 128 day EMA that crossed it (which I will note here, is usually followed first by a dump to spring upwards), which in every instance in the past 10 years meant a sustained bull run for at least 6 months to 1 year, but there are other...

mabonyi P

Berger's article on the Power Law Model for Bitcoin is compelling: medium.com When you apply this to previous bull runs in Bitcoin, there are a number of times that the power law midline acts as a strong support for further rallies (both successful and unsuccessful). The one that bears the closest relation I found was the 2013-2014 rally. What is interesting is...

mabonyi P

Waiting for it to go up, I guess bulls got so bored they started drawing with price action. I noticed a bull had appeared on my screen. I need a drink, clearly.

mabonyi P

Not the most enticing prospect now. What's with these IEOs? They last a week at best.

mabonyi P

I saw some news posts saying this is the parabola broken but surely not. The break point moves up ~$100 / day right now and, today, is at $7625. We're nowhere near that.