Berger's article on the Power Law Model for Bitcoin is compelling: medium.com/@hcburger...-growth-649d0e9b3c94
When you apply this to previous bull runs in Bitcoin, there are a number of times that the power law midline acts as a strong support for further rallies (both successful and unsuccessful). The one that bears the closest relation I found was the 2013-2014 rally.
What is interesting is that the drop in volume since the annual high, the resurgence the last few days, and the large wedge BTC is still inside, are all very similar to 2014. Looking at the previous rally at that time, we can expect to trade more or less sideways out of the wedge with a few attempts higher, until early 2020. This coincides with the May 2020 halvening, which is regularly followed by another ATH and the power law midline would push it above $13000. So there is some value in seeing it this way as the worst case scenario.
The power law model is the best argument I've seen so far against the Hyperwave/Consensio and other bearish predictions of a $1000 or sub $6000 price point. That is rapidly diminishing as possible unless BTC invalidates the power law model for the first time in 10 years AND flies in the face of positive macro events.
Now this may be an unpopular prediction and I am not myself holding to it either. It isn't a prediction, but more soliciting others for ideas on how they see the 2014 fractal and power law midline in relation to today's market.
I hope you all find it as interesting as I have.
When you apply this to previous bull runs in Bitcoin, there are a number of times that the power law midline acts as a strong support for further rallies (both successful and unsuccessful). The one that bears the closest relation I found was the 2013-2014 rally.
What is interesting is that the drop in volume since the annual high, the resurgence the last few days, and the large wedge BTC is still inside, are all very similar to 2014. Looking at the previous rally at that time, we can expect to trade more or less sideways out of the wedge with a few attempts higher, until early 2020. This coincides with the May 2020 halvening, which is regularly followed by another ATH and the power law midline would push it above $13000. So there is some value in seeing it this way as the worst case scenario.
The power law model is the best argument I've seen so far against the Hyperwave/Consensio and other bearish predictions of a $1000 or sub $6000 price point. That is rapidly diminishing as possible unless BTC invalidates the power law model for the first time in 10 years AND flies in the face of positive macro events.
Now this may be an unpopular prediction and I am not myself holding to it either. It isn't a prediction, but more soliciting others for ideas on how they see the 2014 fractal and power law midline in relation to today's market.
I hope you all find it as interesting as I have.
