My last post noted that the SPX could make a new all - time high on 9/5/17. This forecast was based upon the impulse wave the SPX was in since the 8/29/17 bottom. Today in the first half hour of trading this forecast was invalidated because the size of the decline was out of proportion with the prior tiny declines within the impulse wave up from 8/29/17. This...
The recent SPX rally from 8/29/17 has been relentless and has blasted through three resistance areas- now appears to be on track to make a new all-time high. The SPX pattern from 6/19/17 to 8/29/17 looks very much like an Elliott wave - Horizontal Triangle. After the completion of these structures there is a post triangle trust in the direction of the main...
At the open today 8/29/17 the bears had everything going for them yet the decline ended in the first minute of SPX trading. It now appears an Elliott wave Leading Diagonal Triangle bottom was made at SPX 2417. Todays low could be wave "b" of a developing wave "(II) up. If rally continues watch the area around .618 retracement of the decline from 2490 to 2417. Mark
From the SPX all-time high on 8/8/17 the decline has taken the form of Elliott waves one's and two's down. If this count is correct next week 8/28/17 to 9/1/17 could see what is called an Elliott third of a third down. This type of wave is usually very powerful an steep. The SPX could reached the important support area of 2322 this week. I still suspect this...
For several months stock market momentum indicators have become very bearish. The persistence of the rally have brought the recent SPX top into a seasonally bearish time zone from August to November. Recently I've posted that conditions for a stock market mini crash are in place if the SPX breaks below the 200 day Simple Moving Average and significant support at...
My last post noted SPX resistance up to just below 2475. On 8/16/17 the SPX reached 2474.90 and began a new decline. The decline continued into today, and on the 15 minute chart is a Elliott five wave pattern. Very short term it appears this decline could be complete at the close of 8/17/17. The 8/16/17 - 8/17/decline could be the second wave "one" down in a...
My last post noted SPX resistance in the 2458 area and a move above 2460 could open the door to the next resistance at 2470. Today 8/14/17 the SPX opened near the 2458 resistance area and quickly moved beyond this potential stopping point. I had speculated that an Elliott Wave - Expanding Flat was forming. In this pattern wave "C" sub divides into five waves,...
There are three SPX Fibonacci coordinates in the 2458 area. 1) .382 of the decline from 2490.90 to 2437.8 is 2458.10 2) If an Elliott wave Expanding Flat is forming - wave "c" is two times wave "a" at 2458.20 3) There is short term chart resistance at 2458.00 This could be an excellent area to initiate short positions. If the SPX moves beyond 2460.00 the next...
In my last post I noted the SPX could be forming an Elliott wave Horizontal Triangle. There are five sub types of Horizontal Triangles, the type I thought was forming is referred to as a Running Triangle. In this pattern the wave "B" exceeds the point of origin of wave "A" ***See Figure 1-43 on page 50 of Elliott Wave Principle by Frost and Prechter. The most...
The SPX rally from 2459.90 to 2490.90 is too choppy and has too much over lap to be a standard impulse wave. This structure does not have the proper proportions to be an Ending Diagonal Triangle. In my last post I thought this structure could be part of a developing Ending Diagonal Triangle. The SPX decline to 2462 on 8/9/17 has made this count a very low...
There could be an opportunity for a quick long trade at the open 8/9/17. It appears that wave III of an Elliott wave Ending Diagonal Triangle may have complete at the high of the day on 8/8/17. If this count is correct the SPX could rally into the 2491-2495 area with a possible top early on 8/11/17. Mark
My last post noted there could be a post triangle thrust up to SPX 2492. The rally on 8/4/17 terminated at 2480 well below the bulls-eye target. Its possible that the SPX opening rally on 8/4/17 was an Elliott wave truncated 5th wave. If so the pattern is very bearish. Here is the plan for shorting the SPX on 8/7/17. Best scenario is if SPX has opening rally...
There is a very high probability the SPX completed an Elliott wave - Horizontal Triangle on 8/3/17. If so a post triangle trust up could be triggered by the Jobs report today 8/4/17. Post triangle thrusts are usually the widest part of the triangle added to the termination point of the triangle, which is wave "e" bottom. This targets SPX 2492 as the bulls-eye...
At the open today 7/27/17 the SPX completed a extended five wave Elliott pattern illustrated in my last post. The SPX top was less than two points above the short term Fibonacci target noted in my last post. To understand the extreme bearish condition of the US stock market you must move beyond the dimension of price. Please examine the new 52 - week highs for...
The decline from the SPX all-time high made on 7/26/17 was choppy and appears to need one more rally to above the SPX high made soon after the open on 7/26/17. SPX Minute wave "I" was 7.20 points added to minute wave "IV" bottom of 2474.20 targets SPX 2482.10 for what could be the top of the bull market that began in March 2009. If downturn begins on 7/27/27...
Today 7/25/17 the SPX and IXIC made all-time highs. Momentum remains insanely bearish. NYSE 52- week highs today was 221 vs. 778 made on 12/9/16 Nasdaq 52- week highs today vs. 562 made on 12/8/16. Today only 3 of the 9 S&P 500 sector funds made new highs Intraday SPX patterns point to a potential top sometime around the FOMC announcement on 7/26/17. If SPX...
Please see my prior post Prelude to Stock Market Mini Crash- Part 1 for comparison. Note that the March 2015 and 2017 corrections are very similar in both form and dates. The early July 2015 and 2017 corrections ended almost on the same July date 7/8/15 and 7/6/17. The subsequent rallies are very similar in form. Momentum for IXIC is almost the same as in...
This is the first of two charts illustrating the similarities with the Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) in 2015 and 2017. In March 2015 IXIC had a correction that subsequently became major support. In August of 2015 when IXIC broke below the 3/26/15 bottom and the 200 day SMA it triggered a mini crash. My next post will illustrate the similarities in both form and...