For years Amazon (AMZN) was a leading U.S. Stock, yet since 2021 it has underperformed the broader market. AMZN high was in July of 2021 months before the Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) top. Subsequently AMZN declined in an Elliott five wave impulse pattern. AMZN retraced all of its rally since the March 2020 bottom while IXIC bottomed well above its major March 2020...
Using the Trading View - Fib Time Zone indicator has produced a amazing result. Using the next full moon date of 05/05/23 as an anchor reveals a series of Fibonacci time peaks. The first is at 01/03/22 near the SPX all-time high of 01/04/22. The next is at 09/02/20 which was a short-term top. The pattern continues to 05/06/19 near the short -term top of...
Three important momentum indicators all have bearish divergences. KST the slowest moving of the three has a single bearish divergence. The medium speed MACD has a double divegence as does the faster moving RSI. The next FOMC rate announcement is 05/03/23. The NDQ could rally into that date. If so it could be a rally to short.
Since TSLA all-time high in November 2021, the rallies after each decline have been getting weaker. The rally after the first decline – phase – 1 retraced 83.3% of the drop. The next decline phase – 2 the bulls were only able to retrace 60.7% of the prior decline. In phase – 3 the most dynamic decline yet was 54.4%. On each successive drop the bulls...
From March 2020 to January 2022 the SPX gained a spectacular 120%. The last time a U.S. stock index had a similar gigantic gain was the Nasdaq 100 - blowoff in the late 1990’s. Many of the stocks leading that mania had incredible gains that were subsequently lost in the 2000 to 2002 bear market. Some of the largest companies lost 80 to 90% of their stocks value...
Today TSLA broke below its most recent bottom, the short - term rising trendline, and the 03/13/23 bottom. Daily RSI is at 33% the oversold zone begins at 30%. First short -term support is at the .618 retracement of the rally that began January 2023. Its more likely TSLA could find short- term support at the long - term rising trendline. This could be the...
Tesla looks like its rolling over for the next major down wave. Weekly Stochastic has a bearish line cross. Weekly RSI has crossed its moving average line. Going into 2024 TSLA could ultimately reach the area of 20 to 30. A break below the long-term rising trendline could be very bearish. Mark
On 04/12/23 the SPX rallied into an important Fibonacci cycle and did not decline. On 04/14/23 the SPX made a new rally high and looks ready for more upside action. The tops on 08/16/22 and 02/02/23 came with the daily RSI at or above the overbought zone without a bearish divergence. The same thing could happen at the next SPX top. If the SPX rallies into...
This is an update to my 03/18/23 post "Bearish Elliott Wave Count. The price target zone for a top has been revised higher. The time target zone is on or near 04/12/23, no change from my time forecast post. Hourly RSI has still not reached the overbought zone above 70% and implies higher prices. No MACD bearsh divergences. The short-term Elliott wave...
The Nasdaq 100 (NDQ) decline from its all-time high into the October 2022 bottom was an Elliott wave - Double Zigzag. The rally off the October 2022 bottom also appears to be a Double Zigzag that could complete soon. The actual length of the first ZIgzag up from the October bottom was 1726 points multiplied by 1.618 equals 2792 added to the "X" wave bottom of...
Fibonacci time ratios indicate a major SPX turn could happen on 04/12/23. This type of analysis does not predict tops or bottoms, it all depends on what action a market is taking going into the turn date. If the current SPX rally continues for another 7 - trading days it could mean a major top is forming. The SPX 2022 decline lasted 195 trading days multiplied by...
The recent U.S. bank failures have increased the chances that U.S. stocks could be on the verge of a sharp drop. The decline could start soon after the FOMC announcement on 03/22/23. In a few week the SPX could break below its bottom made on 10/13/22. Mark
EURUSD held above short-terrm support - see the green arrows. MACD has a bullish lines cross and Histogram has a bullish divegence. RSI has crossed above its moving average line. Stochastic has a bullish lines cross. If EURUSD can move above the recent double top - see the red arrows, it could rise up to at least the 02/02/23 top. Mark
UNG appears it could bottom near chart support possibly on 03/13/23. Both RSI and MACD have bullish divergences. Elliott impulsive wave up followed by a Zigzag correction. Mark
Ocassionally Full or New Moons can signal a market turn, usually within plus or minus two trading days of the Full/New Moon. Momentum oscillators can help determine which lunar signals could be effective. On 08/18/20 GLD made a secondary peak after a very overbought primary top. The bearish line crossovers on MACD, RSI, and Stochastic along with the New Moon...
When determining the trend of a market, look at the long - term view. My prior EURUSD post examined the daily view, this post is monthly. EURUSD has broken above the declining trendline going into the September 2022 bottom. MACD lines has just had a bullish cross. This is a slower moving oscilator and the crossover implies a multi - month rally. RSI has a...
Many traders think that an extreme overbought/oversold reading indicates a stock index top/bottom. Very often espicially with a rising stock index, an extreme RSI reading implies continuation of the trend. Note in late 2019 the persistant bull trend had a very overbought reading, yet the final top wasn't in place until a double bearish RSI divergence. The same...
EURUSD may have bottomed. If not it could find support at the Fibonacci .382 retracement of the prior rally, which is also near chart support. Mark