michael.j.macauley

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Markets Allocation
25 % commodities 19 % forex 56 % other
Top Mentioned Symbols
FX_IDC:XAUUSD 31% | 5 USOIL 18% | 3 ES1! 12% | 2 OANDA:XAUUSD 6% | 1
michael.j.macauley michael.j.macauley HG1!, W, Long ,
HG1!: Copper - Bullish Potential
122 0 2
HG1!, W Long
Copper - Bullish Potential

Copper is currently consolidating inside wave B of a corrective wave, which follows the bearish impulse which began in 2011. We expect copper to resume its bullish movement and complete wave C of this cycle over the new few months. The previous bounce off the .786 retracement prints a likely low in the market, and the correction since that time has proceeded ...

michael.j.macauley michael.j.macauley USOIL, D, Long ,
USOIL: Crude Oil Long
139 1 5
USOIL, D Long
Crude Oil Long

Crude has taken a bit longer to "wobble" as per our previous crude call than expected, however, the time has come and crude is testing its lowside demand zone. The recent drop has put the market back near its .236 retracement of the previous clecline which started in Sept. 2013. We expect crude to revisit the .50 retracement level near $69-$70. There will likely ...

michael.j.macauley michael.j.macauley XAUUSD, D, Short ,
XAUUSD: Gold Speculations - Bearish Potential
130 2 6
XAUUSD, D Short
Gold Speculations - Bearish Potential

Gold has completed an initial correction from the previous low at 1050. We expect gold to seek the print a bottom at or below this previous low, as a second round of correction wave tests the market bottom. Look for the bulls to battle hard to keep the price elevated, as risk levels are elevated relative to previous years. There is enormous pressure from ...

michael.j.macauley michael.j.macauley USOIL, D,
USOIL: Crude Wobble & Run
119 0 3
USOIL, D
Crude Wobble & Run

Crude oil has been holding resistance at the supply zone just above $50 following a first wave, the correction moving the market sideways. We expect crude to complete a C wave of this correction and then encounter demand, sending the price upward. With this in mind, we are short term bearish and medium term bullish. We expect the demand rush after this corrective ...

michael.j.macauley michael.j.macauley XAUUSD, D, Short ,
XAUUSD: Gold Bearish Reversal
44 0 3
XAUUSD, D Short
Gold Bearish Reversal

We believe gold has completed a .382 retracement of the preceding trend, and will complete the impulse wave downward. Foreign capital is pouring into dollars, driving the dollar price of gold down as the value of the dollar increases. We are not sure how far gold will plunge following this recent rally. If geopolitical events go as we expect them to following ...

michael.j.macauley michael.j.macauley XAUUSD, D, Long ,
XAUUSD: Gold Tagging 50 DMA
92 0 1
XAUUSD, D Long
Gold Tagging 50 DMA

Gold will likely tag the 50 day MA and continue moving downward thereafter, at the .382 retracement point of the previous large down trend. If gold closes on a daily chart below 1110 this should signal a return to the lows from 2015.

michael.j.macauley michael.j.macauley XAUUSD, M, Short ,
XAUUSD: Speculating on Gold's Bearish Potential
194 1 1
XAUUSD, M Short
Speculating on Gold's Bearish Potential

We are looking at the monthly chart today for gold, and see quite a bit of potential bearish movement in this chart. Gold is returning to the 0.500 retracement of the bull market which started in 1999 and ended in 2012. If gold elects to punch through the 0.500 retracement at 1087 then we will likely see $891 at the 0.618, and potentially $611 at the ...

michael.j.macauley michael.j.macauley USOIL, D,
USOIL: Crude Oil Speculation - Neutral with Bullish Leaning
122 0 1
USOIL, D
Crude Oil Speculation - Neutral with Bullish Leaning

The price action for crude is, in our opinion, very bullish right now. We see heavy potential for the market to continue upward, as shown on the chart. There are two potential wave counts for the corrective wave we have been in for a few weeks, and each has different results. We tend to think, based on the large gap of free space above the current price, that ...

michael.j.macauley michael.j.macauley XAUUSD, D, Short ,
XAUUSD: Gold Speculations on Bearish Potential
179 0 4
XAUUSD, D Short
Gold Speculations on Bearish Potential

We believe gold is returning to the mean after a long term correction from its previous bear market. We do believe this is setting up a slingshot move for gold within the next few years, but with that being said, we don't think gold's time is today. However, we wouldn't be caught with our pants down. We always trade with the trend. We believe that gold will ...

michael.j.macauley michael.j.macauley XAGUSD, D, Short ,
XAGUSD: Speculating on Silver's Bearish Potential
138 0 2
XAGUSD, D Short
Speculating on Silver's Bearish Potential

We are currently watching price action on the potential bullish bat pattern which formed when silver finally tanked, which took quite a bit longer than we originally expected. If the lower time frame price action cooperates then we will play the bullish pattern on a shorter time frame as trending indicators dictate until such time as the second, bearish, pat ...

michael.j.macauley michael.j.macauley XAGUSD, D, Short ,
XAGUSD: Silver Rolling Off the Cliff
144 6 3
XAGUSD, D Short
Silver Rolling Off the Cliff

Silver has begun to complete its correction after obtaining the high post BREXIT. Similar to gold, silver is currently in a bearish trend. We have broken technical trend resistance some 5 days ago, but silver has been hanging around a little bit with gold as the bulls take their time to lose confidence. Also similar to gold, we are long term very bullish, but ...

michael.j.macauley michael.j.macauley XAUUSD, 60, Short ,
XAUUSD: Gold Finally Breaks Bearish
59 0 3
XAUUSD, 60 Short
Gold Finally Breaks Bearish

As expected from our previously published Idea, gold is breaking downward after completion of a bearish harmonic and the end of wave E. Hold on to your hats, people, the ride might get a little scary.

michael.j.macauley michael.j.macauley XAUUSD, D, Short ,
XAUUSD: Loading the Cannon - Gold Positioning for Major Rally
104 2 4
XAUUSD, D Short
Loading the Cannon - Gold Positioning for Major Rally

Over the past few weeks gold has been in a corrective phase following the Brexit wave, which in our counts has reached the top of a 5 wave impulse cycle. This five wave cycle is, at the highest cycle levels, corrective in structure following the long descent of the past 6 years. This corrective structure indicates to us there is a high likelihood for the near to ...

michael.j.macauley michael.j.macauley ES1!, 240, Short ,
ES1!: /ES S&P 500 - Is the Medium Term Bull Market Over Post-Brexit?
23 0 1
ES1!, 240 Short
/ES S&P 500 - Is the Medium Term Bull Market Over Post-Brexit?

Well, we always need to admit when we are wrong, and we screwed the pooch on our last /ES idea. Fortunately, we all know to trade safely, so risk must always be controlled in the case analysis proves incorrect. It turned out that the long sideways movement was a long, complicated, and drawn out corrective wave. Just as confidence began to sag, the final impulse ...

michael.j.macauley michael.j.macauley CL1!, D, Long ,
CL1!: Crude Oil - Surfing the Elliot Waves
229 1 7
CL1!, D Long
Crude Oil - Surfing the Elliot Waves

Crude has elected a reversal at the 50% retracement point of the previous rally. Our Elliot Wave counts identify the current trend as bullish. We remain in a corrective pattern within the larger cycles, the last rally from the $30's to the $50's was the A wave in an ABC correction. The rush down from $50 to $39 was a three wave countertrend correction B wave, and ...

michael.j.macauley michael.j.macauley ES1!, 240,
ES1!: The Party Is Almost Over
28 0 0
ES1!, 240
The Party Is Almost Over

The impulse wave off the BREXIT bounce is almost over. Where will the market go next?

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