Oil (Brent and WTI) has been continuously lower since OPEC and Russia disagreed with each other at the same time as the first outbreak of Corona in Wuhan, China. The dispute continues, Arab Saudi pumps more oil and pushes oil price to reach lower at $20 - $30 per barrel. I think this is a holding breath contest. A country that can withstand lower oil (without...
I believe when oil reaches a low level, the end is near because other players will not accept losing. What does the action they take so they don't lose? Flip the table. Lower oil also coincides with the bottoming of stock markets : Gold also starts to rise so it seems that the Investor has found their risk appetite after Hoarding Cash (shows they are really...
After falling -40% since the beginning of 2020, SPX - DJI - DJT and RUT start to rise. The story behind why they are rising might be because Investor see the reason why the market is crash at the first place is almost over. I am not expecting to see those four indexes are rising continuously. At least there will one more fall before we can expect they rise.
SPX and RUT (as a better US Stock Market Indicators - to me) seem are meeting their Bottom which I think those indexes are about to form a Bottom Patter. US10Y may go lower but maybe will not reach below zero. Strengthening DXY is more likely to fall since The Fed releases unlimited QE that should end US Dollar scarcity. Overall, I believe Bear Market is on its...
COMPOSITE movement is negatively correlated with ID10Y. USDIDR is positively correlated with ID10Y. I'm trying to catch the time when COMPOSITE starts to go up and ID10Y starts to go down.
I have been paying attention to these charts because it shows that after the outbreak in one country is over, the stock market is back on its track. I witness an end of the Downtrend for SPY, NKY, HSI, and STI. Hopefully soon Composite is about to end its Downtrend.
Hopefully, people who recovered from the virus will exceed people who passed away.
Yield Indonesia Bond 10 Yr is not touching Support at 7% but potentially Breakdown Support and continue to fall to reach 6.5% (at least). The Yield is still in Downtrend since Oct'18 at 9%. The downtrend is confirmed after the Yield broke Support at 7.2% on Oct'19.
POWR has broke Resistance at Rp1,000 on Sept'19. At that time, POWR has confirmed Bullish Reversal pattern (Double Bottom) which indicates an Uptrend to at least Rp1,200. POWR has reached the target (at Rp1,200) on early Oct'19 but then since it is an early Uptrend, I predict POWR will continue an advance to strong Resistance at Rp1,400. POWR is now in the late...
Malaysian CPO is in Uptrend after broke Resistance at MYR2,300 on Oct'19. It almost reaches the closest target at MYR2,700 but there is a fair chance it soon falls as Technical Correction. The Technical Correction that might occur to at least to MYR2,400 - MYR2,500. Any movement beyond MYR2,400 should be suspect at the end of Uptrend. Since Malaysian CPO is...
US Government Bond 10 Yr Yield is set to move Uptrend after Broke Down Trendline at 1.7% and about to break Resistance at 2%. After the Yield broke 2%, the Uptrend at least to 2.6% is confirmed. US Gov. Bond 10 Yr Yield indicated Bottom when it failed to fall or even touch Support at 1.3%. On Sept’19, the Yield only reached 1.4% and then started a rise. That rise...
S&P500 has started Uptrend move to 3,300 after it broke Resistance at 3,000. However, in the short term (3-4 weeks from now), S&P500 is at risk to fall to the now Support at 3,000. This movement is named Throwback and is very common after the asset has broken the Resistance. Since the VIX is very low, I am more convinced of the S&P500's Uptrend. See VIX chart...
ID10Y ends Pullback by falling from near-Resistance at 7.45%. This is one of the characteristics of Pullback. A pullback is also a confirmation that Downtrend is imminent. I predict ID10Y will continue its Downtrend until it reaches 6.5%.
PWON is potentially forming a Bottoming pattern around Rp580 - Rp600 to end a downtrend since Jun'19 at Rp825. PWON has to broken out Rp650 to begin an Uptrend move to Rp850. If PWON break Support at Rp580 then PWON might continue to fall to Rp450.
S&P500 broke Resistance at ~3,000 and now it is continuing Uptrend to 3,300. S&P500 has formed a Bullish Continuation pattern since Jun'19.
The spread between Indonesia Bond 10Yr with US Treasury 10Yr reached the highest level since the end of 2016. The spread is now at 5.8% wherein the beginning of 2018, the spread is only at 3.6% and 5.4% at the beginning of 2019. The latest increase of the spread (since Jul'19) is caused by the falling of UST 10Yr at high speed (from 2.1% to 1.5% in just a...
Yield SUN10Yr berpotensi melanjutkan Tren Turun menuju 6.5% setelah Breakdown Support di 7.45%. Kenaikan Yield di bulan awal April 2019 dari 7.45% menuju 8.2% terlihat sebagai Tech. Rebound yaitu kenaikan ditengah Downtrend (Tren Turun). Oleh karena itu, dengan Breakdown Support di 7.45% yang terjadi dipertengahan Jun'19 lalu, Yield mengonfirmasi Tren Turun dari...
Meskipun 77% emiten - emiten di NYSE mengatakan laporan keuangan 1H19 tidak sebagus estimasi para analis, namun S&P500 Breakout All Time High dan mengindikasikan melanjutkan Uptrend setidaknya dengan potensi kenaikan sebesar 11%. Penurunan yang akan datang patut dipertimbangkan sebagai Technical Correction namun bila S&P500 turun di bawah Higher Low terakhir...