Comments: this play can be rushed, because the levels of both cot indexes we monitor are still low. We want anyway to enter because:
- the speed of the drop was very fast (price % change / time of the change in weeks)
- net position change speed was very fast (net position % change / time of the change in weeks)
- for the very good r/r at this price level
Comments: 5 years in a row this pattern seems to play out very well. Top in may/june and drop there after.
Cot 3y: 80.1
Cot 6m: 100
Rsi: daily bullish divergence
Price: good multiyear low support
major support resistence. I am anticipating a cot index of around 100 possibly in a couple of weeks.
Riskier tha usual from fundamental stand point but very good potential entry point for major trend reversal
A warning is that NG is very volatile and COT is usually late in forecasting the movement. We want nonetheless to combine as well some technical analysis on a very important multi decade support level.
R/R very favorable