peterdcharlebois

peterdcharlebois

Indeed we bounced of the trendline and are now headed for a very likely double top or even new sustained highs. (But I doubt the latter). I'll be looking for a new toping pattern to consider selling and without question will sell if a drop below 4488!

peterdcharlebois Updated 

This chart shows the bullish view with the current low being a wave 4 and the expectation of am still coming new high (or double top). Although unusually deep for a wave 4 it does not break any rules. If the index is now bearish it will break the two lines I've drawn for confirmation. So rather than guess at a direction right now, I wait for the completion of one...

peterdcharlebois

So I am happy with my short and have taken it off the table. The ideal pattern for a short would be a ZigZag up with confirmation of a new move down. BUT the current low is a line if crossed, that could give way to new lows.

peterdcharlebois

This bounce is significant. This will be the level to watch now for short or long term. The move down is just not a clear drop, so I give it about equal weight to a move in either direction.

peterdcharlebois Updated 

This move up is most likely a complex correction. (multiple zigzags). As such, when the lower line is broken it should lead to lower lows. The question is just how low and will that lead to a break of the greater trendline or a bounce and return to the uptrend. We will probably know in a day or so. The alternate scenario is that this is a leading diagonal and...

peterdcharlebois

Words aren't really necessary. But the system says I need to add more to my description. So breaking the line is down, and bouncing off the line is up, at least temporarily!

peterdcharlebois Updated 

I've been having fun with this market as it is moving so fast. BUT... as a result it can fool us. So how many Elliotticians does it take to confirm a count? Well you may never get any two to agree. LOL. I said in an earlier post I would be watching for a 3 wave move down. Well I've labelled this move as so but it was so fast moving it's hard to really see it....

peterdcharlebois Updated 

Well... maybe and maybe not. If you have seen my previous posts I have been speculating that the drop is not so clear just yet and this may be a complex correction as is common in wave 4. Right now it's a double ZigZag and could be forming into a triple one. All this to say that the current price is once again in no-man's land. I'm watching mostly for a...

peterdcharlebois

The shape of the move down will give better indication of new trend or just a correction.

peterdcharlebois

Remember this is for educational purposes only. NOT a trade recommendation. As I will always point out, using Elliott Waves can be a bit subjective like all other analysing methods. But what I like about EW is it forces me to draw hard lines for stops if my count is wrong. And I always incorporate trend-channels and other indicators in my view. But no system is...

peterdcharlebois

I always say "possible" with my counts and patterns because trading is a game of probabilities and not certainties. Keeping this in mind helps me keep my money management in check. I choose to use 8Hr candles for 2 main reasons. 8 Hour candles tend to follow within reason, the three global time financial sessions. So candle formation is quite "readable" and...

peterdcharlebois

Well, it appears plenty of traders chose to buy the dip. But sooner or later this strategy will fail. The question is when? I'm not attached to either direction. But I am waiting with anticipation for an eventual larger drop. If this is a correction and ends around 4680 which is the .618 then a new low could be coming. Above that level and the most likely...

peterdcharlebois

Even though the USD DXY took a bit hit late in the week the USDCAD did not drop as it should have. The CAD is also tied to commodities and especially OIL. So the CAD took a hit too. With this in mind, the EURO could be strengthening over the coming weeks and it would make sense then to play EUR/CAD as long as OIL continues to correct. From an Elliott Wave...

peterdcharlebois

There is nothing complicated about the moves in OIL. Heavily overbought for some time as it was on the longest upward trend since 2007. How far it will correct is a guess at this point however it sure looks poised to drop some more. Even if not in a straight line. I expect it to bounce back to new highs possibly in a few months as we seem to have entered a new...

peterdcharlebois Updated 

Using an RSI period 14: The weekly chart has been in over-bought territory now for about a year. And the daily chart shows divergence. I use a few indicators and price action (candles) on the weekly chart to provide some context to direction, while looking for obvious Elliott Wave patterns. Right now the very top of this market could be carving out an ending...

peterdcharlebois

For those new to Forex this is the US Dollar Index. (DXY). It is a combination of six of some of the most traded world currencies. Euro (EUR), British pound (GBP), Canadian dollar (CAD), Japanese yen (JPY), Swedish krona (SEK), and Swiss franc (CHF). The move down Friday is the largest single-day move since Dec 2020. Large moves like this almost always signal a...

peterdcharlebois Updated 

Long held trends tend to hold-up, well... long. I've labeled the chart with 2 of what I think are the most plausible EW count scenarios. It does allow to see where the risk and acceleration levels likely are. Only time will tell if the top is in, or if we are going still higher yet.

peterdcharlebois Updated 

The correction lower is still underway but could terminate shortly