peterdcharlebois

peterdcharlebois

Well there is the Pop and Drop I have been calling for. Right now I'm treating this as a wave 3 top. The index would have to drop below 4490 to suggest the bears are clearly in charge. So I'm looking for a return to 4640 for now. The rest is a little up in the air. I'm short but only to 4650 for now.

peterdcharlebois

Well... Still holding the top but not really going anywhere. So my view is still that this is in a topping process. Only time will tell. HAPPY NEWS AND MAY YOU HAVE A PROPEROUS 2022 TRADING!

peterdcharlebois

Still not ready to pull the trigger but standing by to see if the reversal materialises. This is a great example of letting the trade come to me! (you) Still waiting for lower low and lower high. This may not happen this year. (or at all) HAPPY NEW YEAR AND PROSPEROUS TRADING!

peterdcharlebois Updated 

This is what I have been waiting for. An old mentor of mine always said: Let the trade come to you. So... I would like to see this 8 hour candle close with a nice reversal pattern like this and then I will short.

peterdcharlebois

The price action didn't follow through and reversed a lot during the US session. There is a "Tweezer Top" on the one hour chart but it didn't follow through at lest not yet. I'm looking for lower-lows and lower-highs.

peterdcharlebois

Complex corrections are typical of wave 4 corrections in Elliott Wave Theory. This is what this is looking like. Which means an expected thrust upward is due to follow. At least if my assessment it right. And while I'm on it, let me say that this is what all trading is about. Especially technical trading with EW. it's not a game of being right... it's a game of...

peterdcharlebois

If a diagonal is developing we are in the range where a downward turn is due. If the index does indeed turn up, I would be expecting a blow-off top in the next few days or weeks. Right at this juncture however it's about a 50/50 chance of going either way.

peterdcharlebois Updated 

I don't usually trade on time frames this short but it looks inviting. It looks like an ending diagonal at the very top for wave V. BUT... It could just be a pause before more upside so I am well aware of the risk.

peterdcharlebois Updated 

If the SPX500 is playing out as an Ending Diagonal then the turn needs to happen soon. Basically, it needs to not breach the upper diagonal line by much at all. I'm looking for a reversal candle or drop below this current extended candle to set up the trade.

peterdcharlebois

Oil has popped into the preferred territory where I would consider a short. Now a good reversal will signal where to enter.

peterdcharlebois

Oil has been going sideways somewhat below its long term upward trendline. I think there is more correction to come to the downside. I think this will happen soon and in conjunction with another Top & Turn on the SPX500.

peterdcharlebois

I promised I would put some labelling on this chart if I thought there was a probability of an ending diagonal unfolding. Here it is. Regardless of your analysing methodology, a neutral stance is called for unless you are already in a trade. But clear technical levels are presented for where "risk" to the downside is best exercised. The most important rule in...

peterdcharlebois

I said before that long term trend don't end so easy. They take a few runs at the top usually before they're all done. With this bounce of the lower channel line, the ending diagonal is still alive. Of course any new lows and all bets are off. I'll take a look at possibly labeling the move in a day or so.

peterdcharlebois

Once again we have reached a do or die level on the SPX500. As I said recently, when the markets move this fast it is sometimes difficult to differentiate impulsive and corrective moves. Corrective moves usually take longer and are more complex with zigzag internal waves. So... is this one more correction that will lead to yet another high? If that bottom...

peterdcharlebois

Huge market moves over the last week or two in individual sessions. What does this tell us? That something is afoot for sure. The index isn't capable of holding onto new highs. Any new high is immediately reversed in dramatic fashion. So for now a watch is on critical levels and any new highs. The price did break below the parallel trendline but didn't follow...

peterdcharlebois

In my last post about the SPX I said it would make a marginal new high and then likely whipsaw down again. It's been fun trading this range. So now we have a new technical level to watch for bearish potential. Regarding Elliott Wave counting on this I think we have to wait a bit longer to identify the waves until it plays out a bit more. I've exited my short...

peterdcharlebois

here we go. Good place I think, to take long position. Stop is well defined at the current low. This pair bounced off the bottom a while back and has now retraced a considerable amount. Could be a good swing trade.

peterdcharlebois

I think it's time to draw an upward channel and to see this as a most likely new uptrend... for now. I would also be looking for a whipsaw blow off top again.