pogicraft

pogicraft

But it so is struggling on life support -- if it can't definitively break 398/402, it just doesn't have the momentum to swing higher and we're coming out of mid-jan around 377

pogicraft Updated 

This bull run looks ready to fizzle out, but I'm opted to think that there are many bullish tailwinds that could lead to the next rally above and beyond $400. I doubt there's a bad outcome to the elections, between stability vs tax cuts and an end to the rate hikes. Powell is expected to announce potential slow down of the hikes after November. Obviously Santa...

pogicraft Updated 

On mobile but seems pretty likely, a rally that has a quick trough will be a shallow trough. So that plus seasonality, says we're on the up and up, till fed speaks again

pogicraft Updated 

As an update, I just want to say, in the 1-6 month range, technical analysis may not be very useful right now. Intra-day, weekly even, it could still be used to gauge market sentiment and bias but fundamentals will win if you want to say, where will we be at the end of year? And rather than technical analysis, it really is the confluence and timing of these...

pogicraft

I don't think anybody knows why the market fell and fell so much today, technically its still a pattern break/continuation issue, much like a week/a week and a half ago. So we're not actually bearish and we may jump up higher and continue again on Monday. And really there is no reason, unless you want to say the Bed Bath and Beyond thing was stronger than the...

pogicraft Updated 

A H&S followed by a rally... I know how trusted Head and Shoulders is around the world, but I've never really been good with it -- I get the inverted and etc mixed up, every single time and I google images for one that matches the current situation and read through tutorials on whether it is bullish or bearish. We've hit some resistance, heading into the second...

pogicraft

and the future is down, doesn't mean you should start dumping now. One thing I've learned that I'm going to share with you is that: Preparing for a coming move isn't the same thing as positioning yourself for the coming move. In sports, that's called anticipating -- just because you're preparing for the pitch doesn't mean you should start swinging. I think...

pogicraft

Sometimes the market doesn't need to hit a resistance level to turn around, sometimes a resistance level turns around and meets the market in the middle. This is simply published rather than a screenshot so I can follow along and update it.

pogicraft

Sorry everything is a bit messy, I prefer default lines to be size 3 and wanted to highlight the red/purple line for publishing, so its a 4. Anyway, It has to clear the magenta line to pull any bullish traction or else dip lower. And although many see the beginning of a bull run, I really have no faith in it.... at least for the next week or so. It bears...

pogicraft Updated 

And I'm usually a perma bear. But just as a basic update, these are the price points that I'm looking for, and the trends that I'm following. There is also a low of 360-368 that I believe will mark the short term bottom. The one thing to remember about all this is -- we are not in a recession yet! That's not optimism, that's just saying usually the market is late...

pogicraft

I may be stubborn but many signs both technical and seasonal point to a bullish bounce for July. -- At least the first 3 weeks. The trend remains, at least for now, unbroken, and most people are positioned for the worst. Of course, everyone wants a good deal, so we're currently in the big money accumulation stage, and as long as we don't break the upward trend, we...

pogicraft

There's distress among the blogs, with some crying that markets are being complicated and no one change would alleviate the downward pressure on them. Firstly, yes, there is one thing -- time. There is nothing to this bear market besides portfolio rebalancing and speculative shorting. Is it a slow motion train wreck? Yes. Does it bode badly for the nation? Not...

pogicraft Updated 

Which seem pretty universal and uncontroversial to me. Green is next 2 weeks' upside, yellow are caution zones but still potentially bullish (for example, could dip down ~1% tomorrow and still be bullish) with an extreme upside around $460. And because everyone likes to play 'how low can it go', I have the bearish zone capped around $360 if we have no upside...

pogicraft

Which I and def most people would not have imagined a few months ago -- remember when we all laughed at even $410 or $420 by years end? Good times .... 1. I still think this is an overreaction, that the range for the rest of the year sits between $360 and $480. And while that may change, its probably not wise to bet against the market before any pattern begins to...

pogicraft

I'm still looking at $395 (from far away, not really short atm) and depending on how we get there, if we get there, will determine the next move. Just funny how the markets didn't take this rate hike as well as the last one, with the initial reaction being 'we saw it coming and they said 75pc hikes are off the table' to an immediate reversal the following day. I...

pogicraft

Original thought was, stays above middle line, bullish, if it goes over top line, bearish, same for crossing under bottom line. But now, I think if it manages to go above the top line, we are in a happy place. Though it isn't guaranteed to happen, let's all remember a month and a half ago we had our previous bottom. We got to the week of Fed FOMC and started a...

pogicraft

Simple answer -- omg look at the losses today -- and yet, most of my indicators and I'm sure many of you are in the same situation, most of my indicators are still saying buy, and the ones that aren't, are saying that we're so overdone that we'll see a bump for the next leg of the market. It's ok to be confused. It's ok to stay out until there's more clarity....

pogicraft

Oh what fun. We know it will eventually dip to $418. We know that'll be before July. Thats.... that's all. Really. Nobody seems interested in touching this, bears or bulls. Not today at least. zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz