pogicraft

pogicraft Updated 

Way too oversold with a large number of retail investors running. It's hitting pretty solid support and nothing bad has happened... maybe on options expiration week it'll trend down again but I'd be nervous going bearish from here. Now if it hits $423~ thats a different story. But we got a our correction, all the news is negative, and again, nothing bad has...

pogicraft

Medium length short by the way, as in some kind of dip or correction before Dec. Manufacturing and sentiment have waned but are still strong and even though inflation is up, profits remain high. But as I've said before, everyone wants to wait until the last minute to sell and prices are determined by MM and overseas and we've been going up so everyone has been...

pogicraft Updated 

So far so good, but I'm staying neutral because I'm not sure the path we'll take but between multiple time frames I'd say we're going towards $430 on SPY on Aug 6th. Maybe I'm right, maybe I'm wrong, just know I'm cash and watching until we get some stronger signals.

pogicraft Updated 

I had urged caution and patience in my last post on Sunday July 10th and forgot to change it from private to public. I'm trying to repost a screenshot here.

pogicraft

It's not really about whether rate hikes will affect the economy or the stock market/valuations. It's not really about whether or not we'll have a taper tantrum. It's about the expectations and risks and worries of these things. Maybe in the 2-5 year range its about the reality of them, but this chart really ends Jan 2022. Before then, we'll have earnings, a...

pogicraft

oh what a fun time to be had. Everyone knows (a bit more clearly) that the Fed is moving up its tapering and uneasing schedule. But there seem to be many that want to grab as much long as they can, seeing the end over the horizon. "Yeah but not yet" seems to be the motto right now -- that coupled with falling interest rates and an uncertain labor market. So have...

pogicraft

I'd urge caution. I don't know how earnings season will go yet, but there will be plenty of opportunities between tomorrow's announcement of nothing to the beginning of earnings season to play the technicals. Other than that, itll float higher or lower and either way not much money to be made.

pogicraft

1. omg the spam on this site 2. i don't know what this chart means 3. it does make me doubt the expected seasonal drop in july 4. i do see a correction happening before schools reopen in september -- after the easy answers in this recovery have already passed 5. except for analyst warnings/notes/concerns i don't see actual impact of inflation until next year 6....

pogicraft

I'm not sure what the general view of 'transitionary' is but we seem to have accepted the idea that inflation won't be a bad thing as long as everything is generally positive (employment, sales etc) It's probably going to go higher than $430 before August but the chart didn't want to stretch that high. Basically we tried to do a leg lower several times this week,...

pogicraft Updated 

June seems to be mediocre month for the stock market, maybe we'll get some housing data that says inflations heating up? But July is supposed to be spectacular, and the timing couldn't be better -- July 4th + reopening = speculation heaven. August and September are usually bad though so maybe, along with earnings, that's when everyone comes back from summer camp...

pogicraft Updated 

Two things I see possible here, this is the more bearish version. And that's the more bullish version. Either way, its obvious that deep pockets keep dumping stock but whoever's buying them up has enough money to continue for a little bit. This was seen last week when housing numbers and producer prices made markets go up, this week when high inflation in...

pogicraft

Maybe short QQQ and go long VV? Value won't do so bad but growth will find a hard time growing from recent EPS, even without all the fun inflation stuff happening. Whether or not more people find jobs will not result in more spending than when everyone got $1400 in free money. And as things open up, the best that can happen is increased competition for material...

pogicraft

But I'm posting to highlight a point. Short term, fundamentals and headlines don't matter, especially to us small time traders without teams of people working together. But sometimes, they tip us off on something we've missed. Sometimes, the difference between follow through in a pattern and a failure is a different pattern in a different chart that we usually...

pogicraft Updated 

We had a whole month of decreasing unemployment benefits. We had a small increase in wages and hours worked. We had good preliminary employment numbers. And we have tons of job openings. Plus several states have begun moving their minimum wages up (by 2024). And the unemployment percent went up. And yet the government job numbers sucked. Everyone's going to...

pogicraft

I just can't get enough of this chart. I keep staring at it and I just have to share it. (Maybe again? I forget if I did before) Green is general regression line from 2019, copied down to the March 2020 bottom Red is the general regression line from about 2017, copied down to the March 2020 bottom Blue is a April 2020 bounce, striking through many potential pivot...

pogicraft Updated 

btw, here come all the I told you so's from the bears (to which I roll my eyes) but I do think that a 5% dip wouldn't be the end of the world and that takes us all the way back to $397, while a more reasonable 3% would have us around my target profit of $405/$407. And yes we're frothy. And yes we've already accounted for the best possible recovery. But actually it...

pogicraft Updated 

Of course I hear a lot of you like the Fibonacci retracement lines and so this is a Fibonacci of a Fibonacci from the linear regression line starting at the end of the day Jan 3rd... oh god! The capitol freedom riots! It's all true! I'm a believer!

pogicraft

Now till May 7th (or 11th, or even 18th) not financial advise but if you believe the lines I've drawn out here, then it could be a decent time to consider a spread, with a slight bias to the downside. But also major upside compared to options costs right now.