quantmaven

quantmaven

Under this count, Ethereum has reached its final bottom last week and we are now in a fully fledged bull market. However the first upward leg may be less spectacular than the next ones, with a potential to reach 2350 over the next couple days. So far this pattern seems to be playing out correctly, but let's keep watching!

quantmaven

For those unfamiliar with this indicator, the ETH/BTC intraday spread is a great risk on / risk off barometer for the crypto markets. I was both right and wrong in my previous analysis. I was right that the last downward wave was shaped as an ending diagonal. However I was wrong, when I thought it would go lower when it was actually completed. I relabeled the...

quantmaven

It's worth looking at the whole forest (long-term view) instead of being stuck in the trees (short-term view). Cardano has shown leadership by being very resilient to the current bear market. It appears to have formed an expanding triangle for its cycle wave 4. If that's the case, a cycle wave 5 may have just begun this week end which could propel ADA from $1.31...

quantmaven

This is a possibly on how to count since the halving bull market began...

quantmaven

I posted earlier a bear count, a reader is suggesting an alternative bull count in form of a leading diagonal. It seems to make sense now that I am thinking about it so I will post it to watch.

quantmaven

My previous count where I saw a potential triangle seems to be invalidated. We now clearly have 5 impulsive waves, with the fifth being extended. For the bear scenario to hold, Ethereum is now finishing a regular flat 3-3-5, bounded between the support and resistances highlighted in orange.That's the only bearish alternative count there is left at this point....

quantmaven

Based on the mosaic theory, which is assembling recent pieces of information, it doesn't look good for Binance. First we had the US investigation in May. Second, we had the G7 meeting. Third this week end we are starting to see coordinated statements from countries such as Canada, Japan and the UK so far that Binance is running their business illegally. I would...

quantmaven

The spread between ETH/BTC serves as a risk on / risk off barometer for the crypto markets. The market is bullish if ETH outperforms BTC and vice-versa. It seems like the spread is doing some ending diagonal pattern for its primary wave C that would end with a ratio of exactly 0.055 ETH for 1 BTC. In my previous post, I forecast ETH to fall around the 1400-1500...

quantmaven

Ethereum is currently doing a symmetrical triangle for its intermediary wave 4 of that long downtrend that began in early July. The rally we are seeing today is just a bull trap that could reach as high as 1925 in the upcoming hours. Monday early in the morning we should have some bad news that would break that triangle and make Ethereum fall to the 1400-1500...

quantmaven

Ethereum is evolving inside a downward channel (see blue lines) since early June. There is a last bearish leg that could bring the price to $1400. So far both intermediate wave 1 and intermediate wave 3 lasted exactly 8 days. So let's see what Ethereum is going to do until next Friday. If this target is reached, it would mark the end of the whole bear market...

quantmaven

This DEFI lending platform is showing a clear Elliott Wave count: a gigantic primary zig zag, where there is only an intermediary wave 5 of primary c to finish. In other words, there is still -30% potential from current level, so the target would be $150. It seems like a crystal clear textbook count to me.

quantmaven

I wrote yesterday that the 25-bar 4H moving average is an excellent indicator to find tops in a bear downtrend. The price of bitcoin has been hovering around the critical pivot for many hours, without closing above the moving average. Price seems to have resolved to the downside, which is a bad omen for bitcoin. A retest of 29-30K is more likely at this point.

quantmaven

During this bear market, the price of bitcoin always dumped after touching the 25-bar moving average on a 4h. Look at the chart below and see all the arrows. Right now the price of bitcoin is right at that level once again. If the 4h closes above the 25-bar moving average then it would mean the fifth wave is over and we have a completed decline from 64K to 29K and...

quantmaven

I posted previous that Binance was forming a gigantic head & shoulder pattern. The whole structure is now completed and price is sitting on the neckline, just before the crash. There is basically just no support at all until price falls from 250 to 50, this is a -75% drop. What could warrant such a drop? Could be government intervention following the investigation...

quantmaven

In my previous Bitcoin analysis, I illustrated two potential scenarios: 1) a truncated 5th wave that would test 30K or 2) a lenghty fifth wave that would go as low as below 20K. With the latest development, it appears that Bitcoin's price just broke the downtrend channel to the upside this morning, after El Salvador passed its currency law to make Bitcoin a legal...

quantmaven

Binance seems to be forming a giant head & shoulder pattern with tons of fillable gap that could bring its price from 350$ to 50$, a -85% drop from current valuation. On May 13th, we learned that Binance is under investigation by the DOJ, the IRS and the CFTC for money laundering, allowing terrorist funds to circulate (linked to the latest ransomware attack),...

quantmaven

In my previous post, I alerted readers that Bitcoin broke its triangle over the week end and that a dangerous decline could ensue. This is pretty much what happened: Elon Musk, Donald Trump and the DOJ/randomware news sparked the latest downtrend that seems to be accelerating. I also told there are two possible scenarios: 1) the fifth wave becomes truncated and...

quantmaven

Bitcoin has been forming a triangle over the last two weeks and appears to have resolved the pattern on the downside Friday. It is most likely that the price is going to plummet from now because triangle exits are known to be swift and of high amplitude. There are two possible scenarios: #1 price retest the 29500 support and the fifth waves is truncated, forming a...