The whole crypto market fell as much as 55% from its high. Speculators blamed Elon Musk for his tweets and Chinese regulatory measures for the severe correction. However, there might be a larger, more potent, structural force in play with this bear market: the US dollar appears to be bottoming and rising again. If we look all the history of Bitcoin price, the...
This intraday spread is only available for subscribers so come take a look. For those who are new, when Ethereum outperforms Bitcoin, crypto investors are bullish and vice-versa. Yesterday I posted that this risk on / risk off barometer was most likely to reach the support I traced, which it did. Since then, the indicator bounced back to form a simple 5-3-5...
Ethereum started a decent-sized rally from its low of 2182 yesterday May 29th that carried the price as high as 2478. However, the price quickly corrected below the resistance of 2450. It attempted for a second time to reach that resistance and without success. Ethereum appears to be resuming it's downtrend. The upward rally we have seen yesterday seems to be...
As I warned yesterday, the intraday Ethereum/Bitcoin spread is an important risk on / risk off barometer to watch for the crypto market and it failed to hold a critical level. We are saturday morning and we have just seen a huge volume spike with a drop, making this a 5 waves down from May 26th top. It's possible the spread deteriorate along with a second crash on...
The intraday spread between Ethereum and Bitcoin is an important indicator that can tell us where we are going next, because it serves as a risk on / risk off barometer. Right now the indicator is at an extremely important level. It cannot fall below the teal support that I traced or else we are going to have another severe crash in the next couple days. I'm not...
I wrote in my previous post that Ethereum is possibly consolidating inside a triangle. The pattern seems to be more obvious with PolkaDot. There is limited downside potential in the short-term before another potential rally.
Maybe the triangle hypothesis isn't dead after all. The problem with triangles is that sometimes you identify one, but it ends up being larger than you expected. With this scenario in mind, the downside potential today is limited at 2750 max. This should mark the end of the triangle / consolidation phase that began on May 24th. Someone asked me why I chart with...
The first thing I wanted to take a look at when I paid my PRO+ subscription was the intraday spread between Ethereum and Bitcoin. It can be seen as a risk on / risk off crypto indicator. The count from the top seems clear to me: 5 waves down followed by 3 waves up. The resistance at 0.0735 is extremely important. During the bull market, it served as a support...
In my previous chart, I was expecting an irregular flat but I think we are more likely to see an ascending triangle because of the price strength we have seen late afternoon and this evening. If we zoom out, we notice a very large reverse head & shoulder pattern, that should carry the price at least to 3400 in the next couple days. However, for this reverse...
Just like the Ethereum analysis I did today, I believe Bitcoin is doing an irregular flat 3-3-5 correction. The squiggle shows that I would expect the price to reach 37K in the short-term. This is merely the consolidation of large gains made over the last couple days. Bitcoin is short-term bearish but upside potential should resume afterwards.
MATIC has been firing from all cylinders over the last 24h. However, this rally may take a temporary break with the resolve of a head & shoulder pattern. We expect the price to fall back to 1.95-2.00, which corresponds to the previous high / new support. However, we must wait for the neckline to be broken to validate the pattern.
I believe Ethereum is currently doing an irregular flat structure 3-3-5. This means that the high of the second corrective wave labeled B, exceeded the top of wave (1). This is particularly nasty because it gives a false hope to investors that price is going to keep rallying to new highs when it is about to fall back again. However a particularity of the irregular...
As discussed in my previous pieces, 2500 was a key resistance that Ethereum had to climb over to end the downtrend. However, it was never challenged. The support of 2100 was critical and it got breached while we were sleeping in North America. This confirms the bearish scenario I predicted. Now since this is the last wave of this whole bear move from 4400 to now,...
Seems like wave ii is finished and a downward wave iii started. We are going to retest the 2100 lows, this time it might not hold. Let's see what happens. Ideally there should be some news for further downside potential. Musk just tweeted more gibberish about Doge but seems irrelevant at first glance. If price doesn't break 2100 then I will have to examine other...
Here's my take on Cardano. I always count from the low of March 2000, I seen people consider the bull market starting in 2019 but many crypto currencies/assets made new lows with the pandemic. From there we can count 5 waves up on Cardano. My only issue is that wave 5 is kinda short compared to the first and third one. Another possible scenario could be that we...
As I said earlier, the 2500 resistance must be breached soon to mark the end of this downtrend. However Ethereum is still up as much as 220% YTD at the current price level and still has tons of room to fall from here. I would still put the odds at 80% downside scenario vs 20% upside scenario from here. Another reason why I favor the bear case, it's because price...
Seems like Ethereum may have completed a 3-3-5 flat structure between 2100 and 2500 since yesterday's evening. The bearish scenario gets invalidated if the price firmly closes above 2500 soon. If not then I maintain the bearish view on Ethereum and all the other crypto currencies/assets.
If today's previous low of 33K doesn't hold, it will become a slippery slope very fast. So far the tonight's bounce is starting to look more like a dead cat bounce... Time will tell.