Business cycle is still going down (as indicated by falling steel prices) and defensive sectors are supposed to outperform SPY in this environment. Lately XLU is underperforming SPY significantly, which happened twice in last several years. In 2015 it foretold a big market crash. In early 2019, while the divergence was relatively small, it predicted the May...
Very high correlation btw relative value of EM vs DM stocks and Gold price
At the moment, either EM is very cheap vs DM or Gold is very expensive. This should correct in coming weeks
Idea stolen from TickByTick_Team on Twitter. Sorry not allowed to paste links here
Business cycle still points to more downside in steel prices and treasury rates. Recent declines are too fast and such fast declines are usually followed by some bounce/consolidation before more downside.
DXY and inflation expectations are diverging once again, just like early 2017 and mid-2018. Divergence is not extreme yet but I fear we might be walking into another trap. DXY is once again showing the path imho, so oil and inflation expectations are once to high and should come down unless dollar reverses quickly.