reees

reees

Fun little observation: when measuring from bottom to top, each of the last two cycles has yielded 19.6% the rate of returns from its prior cycle. If that were to continue, it would put this cycle's top around $74,820. A couple of caveats: (1) The numbers will vary depending on where your top/bottom values come from. E.g. on Bitstamp, last cycle was 25% of its...

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Price remains in a macro consolidation pattern and has followed this fractal closely so far: Now that we've potentially formed a local low, I've done some margin pressure analysis to help anticipate support/resistance levels. The levels are based on the following two assumptions: (1) Leveraged longs are likely to have their liquidation points protected by the...

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right now it seems like every trader is adamantly subscribed to one of two camps: (a) "blow-off top incoming, we're going to the moon!" or (b) "$10k incoming, everyone will suffer a slow and painful death!". admittedly i'm more often associated with the former (see my blow-off top prediction). but i have my reasons. here i'd like to offer an alternative to this...

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Been watching this corrective pattern, very similar to the one preceding the COVID crash in 2020. If the pattern plays out again, I would expect a smoother correction this time around (barring another freak event). Of course if bitcoin and the rest of the market continue to dip further, I would expect link to follow. The LINK chart is interesting because it's...

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People like to complain that Cardano's development is "slow". I would argue that this is one of its greatest assets, and Cardano's development methodology is the biggest reason that I'm bullish on the project long term. And for me, Santiment's 2021 data is further validation of this sentiment, showing Cardano as #1 for both development activity and development...

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Patience is a virtue more valuable than ever in the crypto market. Price recently broke above the downtrend line, but this doesn't look like the kind of "breakout" you want to buy. Low volume and strong selling pressure (notably 4x shorts) around $50k lead me to believe price will remain in this macro consolidation pattern for now, and will need to test lower...

reees

In a recent idea, I attempted to predict the approximate date of this cycle's top by comparing the length of the prior two cycles, and using the rate of expansion to extrapolate the date for the current cycle. That method has two major flaws: (1) It assumes cycles are lengthening at a linear rate (since I only compared the lengths of two cycles) (2) Where I...

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an oldie but a goodie. in a world of NFTs, "metaverses" and memecoins, it's easy to forget about one of the oldest and simplest crypto use-cases: digital cash. i just bought more NANO, and here's why: (1) it's undervalued. down almost 90% from its ATH ($42.9) and over 70% from its 2021 high ($18.58). this is bordering on bear market value, right in the thick of...

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we saw quite a dump last week after the downtrend was confirmed, but i'm definitely not ready to back down on my blow-off top prediction . here's what i think a bullish response might look like. if i were swing-trading BTC against the dollar, i'd be looking at these 3 targets: (1) retest of the downtrend line (2) retest of the bull trendline (3) local buying...

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these are the big-picture decisions that will make you or break you in this market. a couple of months ago, i plotted the path to $5.3k and explained why i planned to take profits at that level. the price action since then has me convinced that taking substantial profits at $5.3k is a must. price has now developed a rising wedge.... inside of a rising wedge......

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while bitcoin appears to be slowly consolidating within a massive range, ETH has finally lost support on its bull trendline (originating in 2020) and altcoins are ostensibly bleeding out. that's a turn-off for some. but for me, the altcoin market is looking exceptionally ripe. just zoom out and take a look at what's going on. looking at the altcoin market cap...

reees

i've been thinking a lot about where cycle tops and bottoms might be, but it occurred to me that i hadn't given enough thought to when we might expect these tops/bottoms to occur. lengthening cycles are plausible, if not inevitable as the market continues to grow. and to the diehard 4-year-cycle theorists, i'll just say this: bitcoin will not be king forever....

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it's no secret that i'm bullish on ALGO long term, and i think we're likely to see strong growth starting in Q1 2022. here are a few reasons why: the new governance model is beginning, and users will be locking up supply for extended periods of time, effectively taking algo out of circulation. supply down, price up. el salvador committing to algorand...

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a picture is worth a thousand words. and no, i'm not suggesting that i think the alt market cap is about to go +65,000%, but.......

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a break below the logarithmic trendline usually means an extended period of consolidation/retracement, as we saw for most of 2018. i've projected that same pattern here which would bring us into january 2022 (**i have no basis for doing this, i just think it's fun**). i don't think we've fully broken down out of the trend yet , but we're awfully close. some...

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SOL is at key support: 1. bull channel trendline (logarithmic) 2. 3x shorts down, 3x longs up 3. 3+ months supp/res obviously the market is in a downtrend , so there's more than a reasonable chance that this mega bull trendline is broken, but to me this looks like a low-risk buying opportunity if you keep a tight stop-loss under the trendline (or...

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CRO price is in an interesting spot. seems to be heavily influenced by leveraged traders, sticking to these levels like glue. while it appears to be breaking out above the downtrend line, i'm still leaning short here with the confluence of 3x shorts ramping up, 4x longs off the table, and potential resistance retesting the prior bull channel. a breakout above...

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looks to be breaking above the 2x long pressure level, which would be super bullish. next stop would be $156. of course, if bitcoin and the rest of the market take another dip, AVAX would likely retrace a bit too but i would expect it to stay in the $85-$100 range. that scenario would provide buying opportunities.