Been posting bearish charts for awhile and scaling out of the market. Very hard to fully bet against the Fed but it's to risky to not be hedged right now. Bounced off support today but I think we will visit the bottom of the rising channel - could revisit the February 2020 highs. Market is setup for a perfect top: -Debt ceiling + Delta variant concerns...
We have been following the Dow for over a month now since the transport divergence. The breakdown of the dow continues. Expecting a bounce tomorrow before more blood.
Bulls gotta hold 30k or this could turn bad. If the bull run is still on I could see making a wick low below yearly open and spring into recovery. Not making any predictions just going to respond to whatever cards the market deals.
Total Crypto Cap is playing out same way as 2017 currently. 1. Strong rally for just over 100 days to blow off selling below the 200D EMA 2. First bounce from below the 200D EMA 3. Break back below 200D EMA 4. Weak 2nd bounce that fails to hold 200D EMA Total Crypto Cap is still just below the 200D EMA. The 200D EMA is an important level that I want to see hold...
The VIX/SPX ratio coming into this buy area has predicted the past 3 dips in the SPX. Extremely hard to get behind all time high prices in a broken economy but then again they say don't bet against the fed.
Interesting to see how the SPX divided by the money supply was at its highest in 2001 and has been unable to reclaim those levels since. The Spx has been unable to get back above the resistance from the dot com bubble. Will this time be different? Will the SPX be able to get above the resistance or will we get rejected from this level like we did in 08 and March 2020?
Total Crypto Cap has fell below the 200D EMA which is bearish for the crypto space. Need a relief rally back above and hold the 1.37T level or will likely see 1.1T. Above 1.37T and its ranged.
Bitcoin rejected from the 200D EMA and fell below the RSI support which has previously been bear market has started indicator. If history repeats, there still should be another leg up later this year in btc but until a catalyst / getting above the 200D EMA I am bearish
Following up on the Dow breakdown on the 3M timeframe. Bearish divergence on falling volume with rising price. Bearish candle being printed right now but would like to see higher volume to indicate the current Dow Reversal is macro pullback.
Following up on the Dow Jones breakdown on the monthly timeframe. Bearish divergence and Stoch RSI cross.
Im not paying attention to the BTC death cross like everyone else. I am watching the total crypto cap and the 200D EMA (blue line) Break below on volume and I am far more bearish on crypto and BTC. I have my spot holdings hedged with shorts. Capital preservation.
The Down has gapped below the previous low completing the Dow sell signal I posted about compared to the Dow Transport. Rsi and Stoch Rsi are nearing buy signals though plus the Dow broke down from the falling wedge. I am hedged short but I am not calling a full on crash/top given the Fed's track record. If the Fed didn't always save the market I would go short...
If you believe higher inflation is yet to come, commodities will continue to rally. Looking for an entry at the support lines after the bearish divergence plays out.
I suspect Feeder Cattle will clear the resistance and go for a run towards the highs. People will always need to eat, trillions of dollars printed in the last year and weakening supply will likely make it happen.
Housing market is looking pretty toppy. Would suggest holding off on buying a home for a few months.. Supply is greatly starting to outpace demand.
The 10y-2y bond yields are important to visual the long and short term expectations of the market. Usually, when the 10y-2y go negative it signals a reversal for the stock market. As you can see, yields (top) are inversely correlated to the S&P (bottom). Yields bottomed and turned around with the Covid crash but the stock market continued to rally. Is this time...
The Dow Jones Transportation index usually tops and reverses prior to the Dow or S&P. The Transportation index has also fell below its support line while the Dow is in the apex of a bearish rising wedge pattern. Will the Fed save the markets again or will Wall Street finally meet reality? If the Fed didn't exist this would be the easiest short play.. I still think...