not the end of crypto, but a lot of names looking weak still. Correlation with stocks is high, so might depend on what happens to the markets on monday.
If we had another mini-crash into the summer, followed by recovery into the fall, then 2008 style mean reversion of risk and leverage, would the ongoing backwardation make VXX look like this, crazy as it seems?
probably only 2 possibilities - either "they" are trying to get cheap XRP, or this is the ugly beginning of the end of a failed experiment. Not sure exactly who they are, but I'm presently of the mind that its option 1.
Looking for .16-.17 and 16-17K for BTC, at which point there *could* be a massive reversal in XRP (if its option 1)
with a few assumptions that could all be wrong:
tech correction in early 2017
the current phase of crypto is more like early 2017 than late 2017
moving from monetary stimulus to fiscal stimulus - UBI, green new deal, deficit spending etc
intermediate/long term dollar weakness
similar to May 2017 - Dec 2017 consolidation
*ideally it stays in the triangle, but history does not necessarily repeat. A drop to .35-.4 (200 week MA and confluence of trendiness) is certainly not out of the question, particularly if stocks sell off in January. That would not necessarily negate the long term bullish direction, but a clean break below that might.
A pullback here would be reasonable, perhaps to .44 or even .36, which is approximately where the 200 weekly moving average sits. The green line at the midpoint of the longer term channel would make sense as a strong support now.
lots of lines to pay attention to, but in short .7644 marks the Sept 2018 high, at which point the bears could re-assert and start a very significant correction. Getting a little bit above .7644 before the correction would be an indication a longer term bull market is still in the works, I think. Failing to get above that could mean we're still in the same bear...
