thillygoosth

thillygoosth Updated 

AU came off 786 fib retracement. I was looking for the sell at the 618, but it never made the diagonal. It did here... There was perfect entry for a scalp if you were watching it, I was outside throwing snowballs with the kids. Aud employment change in a couple hours could produce some serious movement considering how it is forecast. Huge risk to reward, also huge...

thillygoosth

Gchf hitting .618 retrace and same median it keeps rejecting, along with 2 intersecting forks. I've been looking for a longer term sell on this.

thillygoosth

I told you in my last post that was a strong level to watch. Same concept as what I said in Ecad, but both these pairs have the potential to go down a lot, but they wouldn't do it in a straight line obviously.

thillygoosth

The first diagonal scalp worked perfectly, to that exact black ray line I had. Huge spike. Cad news: rates as forecast, but rose, dovish comments.. Whatever. If Ecad going up, I expect 50-62% retrace first, it did break that last high, so at this point all I'm looking to.

thillygoosth

Coming right off equal leg and daily resistance, over extended on daily TDI. London close. Look at 5 and 15 min, may get a nice scalp, possibly much more. Keep in mind this is a long term swing I am looking for, can come down a lot from here (refer to last GU post). But you have a large zone above so don't be swinging it if you or your account can't handle it.

thillygoosth

However... London close right now be careful

thillygoosth

I would not be surprised to see USDCHF make a small diagonal down to 1.382 extension, but I also wouldn't be surprised if it didn't. You see the fork line. The black 618 line is what I want to see it pull back above. This can pull up and make 1 more shoulder before the long term trade, however I can't say. But you see my buy zone, my analysis on this pair hasn't changed

thillygoosth

That is the 200 on 15 min. This is only intended to be quick scalp to trend line, possibly leaving some on to run stop in profit, just in case you get lucky. It would need to break out below that 200 in my opinion to invalidate the trade, but that depends on your risk appetite.

thillygoosth

There is always the possibility of a more complex pattern and can also see the possibility of it spiking up above the MA to trend line. If it is going to be that long a move I would expect a spike, But regardless of what it does the trend should be down. If it is going to make another high on the weekly it will need to come down at least to break fork first in my opinion.

thillygoosth

I have W, X, Y'd this thing out the ying yang and looked at the different possible combo patterns. It is at the 200 MA on the daily and the weekly and we could have a huge flat pattern in which the last wave of this C-leg would extend to that 618 as I show.... If it is to come down from here in a 5 wave, I would expect this last wave to extend 1.618 the total...

thillygoosth

The EG sell will be a nice one. Possible it comes down from here, but the pattern it is in concerns me. I would need more data, for example, it breaking out to the downside, then I may consider sells on small flags. However, it can go up and break the high, which would take a while, but you see the .618... If it does break the high, it will probably drop down like...

thillygoosth

looking at this small wave pattern within this correction I expect Cadjpy to by the least hit trend line 1 ore time before it drops... If it does drop, because it is possible within the realm of modern wave theory it does continue up, even though daily and weekly TDI and engulfing candles look like it has turned to downside. I at least expect further correction......

thillygoosth

I'm trying to make a decision on what is gonna happen with Cad. But regardless, if it hits that zone should at least get a retracement of bullish move with possible further downside. I prefer to identify zones and levels and split up my trade size to leave a little ride. Wave pattern wise on Cad pairs I can see 2 different scenarios. Stay tuned I will update you...

thillygoosth

Gchf has a very strong fib zone relative to price and pattern. You see it there. .618 lines up about with equal length and intersecting fork lines.. We already had one nice sell. If Gchf is in a corrective move it should react to that area.

thillygoosth

Echf looks to be in the 3rd part a triple combo. Swiss news in 4 and a half hours. That blue 618 is the extension of the larger pattern. I would prefer to see a spike into that zone or to trend line. I might try a limit a the 1.2 or 1.6 extension. The whole point of trades like this are huge reward. Always use proper risk management based on your account.

thillygoosth Updated 

GU closed the week breaking the high at a trend line of a possible diagonal. Pattern wise, it needs to correct down in order for it be in a bullish trend. It could come down from here, but don't sell a top, wait for a flag, but draw trend line on the top where you see my fork, because if it hits that without breaking the low, it should come down from there. That...

thillygoosth Updated 

UJ is coming off the fib extension I was looking to for that shoulder. I don't really like entering anything sunday night. Diagonal completed, but just keep in mind it may shoot down breaking trendline and wicking back up. Refer to my original post for a further away look. I can't be certain exactly how much they will pull it up, just look to some MA's and look to...

thillygoosth

Ecad broke fork showing divergence. Maybe watch your 1 hr overbought/sold indicator and scalp from that. Entry should have been at top when broke diagonal for risk purposes though. It may retrace from here either faking down or making a lower high, could possibly be huge sell but may also make a bullish flag for a buy setup. But low volatility. We got a wick on...