We are looking for OPEC to set the tone for strength of WTI Highlights of the May 2015 Canadian Ivey PMI data. 65.2 vs 55.7 prior This is a big beat. This moves CAD into Neutral Stance. We need to see some positive OPEC outcomes in OIL demands as CAD is following WTI to support this trade. Greece pushes out IMF payment. Even if payment is eventually made....
Technicals on the chart. Fundamentals: We have season plays for GBP as June/July are the strongest months. We have more pressure from Market for BOE to hike rates. Data for UK is improving. Deflation not a big deal. CHF negative deposit rates, also SNB ready to intervene on a strong CHF.
Technicals on the chart.
Fundamental thoughts: CAD is still weak and following WTI closely. Poloz has suggested it will take some time before CAD econ will strengthen. This rally on CADJPY is caused by strength of WTI. With WTI looking like it is finally showing signs of the rally slowly losing steam. This could be a chance to get short on CADJPY. BOJ will be speaking today and we are...
Short reasons : EUR fundamentally weak due to QE. Greece problems are not easy to solve and will continue to weigh on EUR. After Greece there is still Italy. Eurozone far from problems being solved. AUD rate cut has occurred. Current sentiment is, it will be hard for AUD to continue cutting rates with the housing bubble in Australia This makes AUD (neutral...
Technicals on the chart. Pink dotted line is where the previous rate cut happened. (Old resistance) Looking for it to hold here and test 1.2300s area. Fundamentals on related idea.
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Technical : on chart Fundamentals : Improvement on Non Payroll farms (223.00K) CAD Net employment drops- 19.70K USD rate hikes still on board. Unemployment Rate for US - 5.8% staying constant. BOC stays neutral / dovish.
Technicals on the chart. Fundamentals : Cad is borderline neutral. I would personally lean dovish. Data for CAD is mixed. WTI crude is really driving the direction. With Crude putting in a decent correction I would lean towards Crude now settling near 54. Supporting this trade. AUD - Rate cut happened 25 points! Now what? AUD sentiment is more neutral /...
Technicals on the chart Fundamentals : After the rate cut and statements from RBA we can now assume in my opinion that AUD is now a neutral/hawkish currency. RBA mentioned last night, they are happy with there strong econ and strong employment figures. They also mentioned they see hitting there inflation target in the long term. I do not foresee another rate...
Technicals on the charts. Fundamentals : See related idea Look for crude prices to fall to support this idea.
Technicals on the chart. - two consecutive quarterly falls for CPI data and petrol price had a decline of nearly 10% - milk dairy prices on the decline - RBNZ - USD Rate hikes still on the table. Looking for direction from Non Farm Payrolls. - Milk : Fonterra cuts forecast milk price to NZ$4.50/kg Keeps dividend range at 20 to 30 NZ cents per share Sees...
Technicals on the chart Fundamentals : US GDP was weak but blamed on weather. Fed's Williams: June rate hike would require 'good' improvement in labor market, inflation. We have some critical data coming up this week Non Payrolls. US nonfarm payrolls increased by 126,000 last month after a downwardly revised 264,000 rise in February, the smallest gain since...
All dependent on US Data now to decide direction. CAD is mostly a dovish/neutral currency now.
Technicals : Clear range bound. Interesting note - even with broad USD weakness it still can not break out of the range Fundamentals : Pressure on RBA to cut rate is mounting up. We will look more direction from Gov Glenn Stevens on Monday. Currently there is no reason to suggest RBA will not cut rates. RBA has tried to talk the currency down several...
Technical on the chart. Fundamentals: After BOC Poloz comments. Puts the Bull back in control in this pair. He Repeats that drop in oil prices very significant shock for Canada He Repeats that oil price drop is front-loaded, one-time shock Aiming for highs 1.9100s Not for a new highs for this pair. If we get more hawkish tone from BOE that could be case but...