yauger

PRO
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Markets Allocation
57 % stocks 12 % indices 1 % commodities 30 % other
Top Mentioned Symbols
FDX 8% | 6 DAX 7% | 5 BA 7% | 5 IWM 5% | 4
yauger yauger PRO DAX, D, Long ,
DAX: The DAX flipped its hand
107 0 2
DAX, D Long
The DAX flipped its hand

As in the Euro 50 the DAX told us it wants to be bullish even if we did get a decline. A very mild decline mind you. Recent advance it ain't mild at all. Therefore as for the Euro 50, I cannot say for sure recent rally in the DAX is the first wave of another impulse or wave a of an abc. Just don't know. BUT we do know the bulls are charge long term even in Europe ...

yauger yauger PRO EU50EUR, D, Long ,
EU50EUR: Europe 50 starting a new rally
4 0 1
EU50EUR, D Long
Europe 50 starting a new rally

or at least another upleg towards 3700. Last time we updated that index we suggested we would see another leg down at minimum. We got that. Could have been the beginning of something more bearish but recent advance is not only impulsive ( the trend ) but has retraced enough of previous decline to leave us with waves overlapping indicating that at minimum we are ...

yauger yauger PRO DJI, D, Long ,
DJI: Update on the DOW
131 0 2
DJI, D Long
Update on the DOW

We updated the wave count on the DOW but as you can see nothing has changed in our Outlook. Recent weakness stopped right on target at the 38.2% retracement and now we are crawling back up to end the structure that started in November of this year. The upper trendline should be an easy target. Also sometimes a fifth wave will measure 1.618 or 2 times the previous ...

yauger yauger PRO BKX, M,
BKX: The Financials are cooking something
12 0 2
BKX, M
The Financials are cooking something

Looking at the big picture for the Financials, one have to wonder if they are not building a very powerful Third of Third wave that would propel the index to serious new high in a very short period of time. Long term forecast can be tricky but nevertheless any Ellioticians looking at that chart cannot deny its potential. In other words, the chart sports the right ...

yauger yauger PRO IXIC, D,
IXIC: The Naz in correction mode
63 0 3
IXIC, D
The Naz in correction mode

We did get another leg down. That was the easy part of forecasting. Now we have to find out if the correction is over and if not what shape it will take. Let's not give too much power to the fact that markets are patterned esp. when we are dealing with consolidation. They can take different shapes. Your guess is as good as mine. But trading with guesses can be ...

yauger yauger PRO DJI, D,
DJI: A clear cut wave in the Dow
117 0 3
DJI, D
A clear cut wave in the Dow

Waves in most indices are so subdivided that it's getting difficult to know where we are in large wave that started in November 2016. That's why we think it is safer to take it one wave at a time. Right now we do have a pretty clear impulse wave in the Dow ( it's even nicer in the XMI ) from the November low that requires another push-up above recent high that ...

yauger yauger PRO DAX, 60, Short ,
DAX: Completing a Zig Zag down
138 1 3
DAX, 60 Short
Completing a Zig Zag down

The consolidation in the DAX for the past two weeks appears to have taken the shape of a contracting triangle eliminating the wave 2 scenario. Second waves cannot be triangles. Triangles are often an interlude between two impulse waves and in this case that would be wave B of a simple ZigZag. Wave C would be under way with target of 12750 ( C = 0.618 * A ) but ...

yauger yauger PRO IXIC, D,
IXIC: The techies ready for consolidation
65 0 3
IXIC, D
The techies ready for consolidation

Yesterday the Naz watched the bullish bandwagon taking off from the pier only to go the other way today reversing lower suggesting we are at least in a consolidation that should bring the index down to 6700 close to the 38.2% retracement and previous small fourth wave, a typical market behavior for a pullback. We are very confident about the consolidation but ...

yauger yauger PRO DAX, 60, Short ,
DAX: Overlapping waves confirming our short term bearish outlook
152 1 6
DAX, 60 Short
Overlapping waves confirming our short term bearish outlook

Nothing have changed in our Outlook for the DAX. Actually since its recent low the DAX has been struggling to rally giving us overlapping waves strongly suggesting it is indeed a countertrend rally that should be followed by another down leg. Size and nature of the decline will help us to better forecast what is in the bag for European indices.

yauger yauger PRO EU50EUR, 60, Short ,
EU50EUR: Euro 50 as clear as the DAX
16 0 2
EU50EUR, 60 Short
Euro 50 as clear as the DAX

We are not sure if current corrective rally is over but to us the picture is quite compelling suggesting as long the November high holds we must expect another leg down that should bring the index close to 3400. A well divided wave down ( The trend ) followed by a choppy advance ( Corrective counter trend ) just make it for a textbook Elliott pattern. That being ...

yauger yauger PRO NDX, D,
NDX: The Nasdaq just keep subdividing higher
179 0 3
NDX, D
The Nasdaq just keep subdividing higher

Yesterday decline stopped right on target for a small fourth wave. Maybe that fourth wave will morph into something more complex but the bottom line is we need another leg up making new high to complete the sequence that started in August. Once there, the Nasdaq should enter another correction. In other words, we should see back-and-fill for many weeks to come.

yauger yauger PRO DAX, D, Short ,
DAX: Update on the DAX
212 1 3
DAX, D Short
Update on the DAX

The DAX decided to drop its right shoulder yesterday only to recover as expected. It does not change anything to our analysis suggesting that as long the index stays below its recent high at 13525 we strongly believe we are in for more weakness either in a corrective ZigZag or in a larger impulse wave down part of much larger correction. The jury is out but we do ...

yauger yauger PRO DAX, 60, Short ,
DAX: A textbook wave in the DAX
195 3 2
DAX, 60 Short
A textbook wave in the DAX

The DAX sure looks like it just printed a textbook impulse wave down from its recent high. Well divided and it stopped right at previous chart congestion or a previous fourth wave. A common occurrence. From yesterday bottom expect a rally that has a strong resistance in the 13175-13190 range. A previous fourth wave and the 38.2 retracement. But I won't be ...

yauger yauger PRO RUT, W, Short ,
RUT: The ice is getting thin
29 0 1
RUT, W Short
The ice is getting thin

Regardless if the Russell 2000 makes new high or not, weakness is around the corner. Using the wave principle one can make a case we do have five up from the low we saw in early 2016. Once you can count to 5 just expect a correction. We just don't know how deep of a correction we will have. To bolster our confidence in our topping view are the weak internals of ...

yauger yauger PRO BA, W,
BA: Still life left in Boeing
59 0 3
BA, W
Still life left in Boeing

Last time we updated BA we were seeing the stock as topping but instead it took off on us opening the door for two potential scenarios. Both bullish. Either we are correcting the recent parabolic advance before printing the final wave up or there's two down up sequences left before BA comes back to earth. The right look and common sense would suggest to label it ...

yauger yauger PRO FDX, W, Short ,
FDX: Fedex
30 1 3
FDX, W Short
Fedex

We have been bullish on Fedex for quite a while but now we are taking money off the table and walking away from it. The chart just does not look good. Actually I should say it does look good if you use the Ellliot waves because one can make a case since the 2009 low we do have a clear five waves up indicating somekind of top is at hand. We might chop our way ...

yauger yauger PRO NYA, D,
NYA: Chopping our way higher
11 0 2
NYA, D
Chopping our way higher

The NYA seems to work its way higher in a nice impulse wave that does not seem to be over. At least two more down-up sequences before we get somekind of top. Actually current advance could even subdivide even more driving the bears totally insane. Markets are patterned but labels come after.... Nevertheless, long term we are not in a topping mode as the McClellan ...

yauger yauger PRO AXP, W,
AXP: Nice recovery by AXP
17 0 6
AXP, W
Nice recovery by AXP

American Express is making quite a nice recovery since its 2016 low and it appears to be unfolding as an impulse wave requiring one more down-up sequence before being completed. Once over a larger decline will ensue. Magnitude unknown.

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