Cardano (ADA) - Death cross - ADA is in a bear market

Have searched through 100+ ideas on tradingview this morning. Not one idea has mentioned the ‘death cross’ that has just printed. Statistics say 95% of market participants will operate at a loss. The current published ideas make it all too clear why.

On the above 1-day chart the 50-day SMA has crossed down the 200-day SMA . This is also true for both 50-day and 200-day EMAs.

Price action is under the 200-day SMA and EMA at the time of the cross. This is a bear market.

Short from $1.80 to $2.20 area. This trade is void should price action close a candle BODY above this range.

On the 10-day chart, following a massive bearish divergence, price action breaks the annual EMA (green line). This is one EMA you do not want to see broken, if indeed confirmed resistance before the month end it will be 6+ months before price action recovers.

Good luck!

WW

10-day chart :

Trade active:

Rejection from 50-day SMA as expected

Trade active:

Some new targets to look out for, 50 cents and 7 cents.

I know many of you below were not as bearish as myself back at $2.35, yet here we are -50% later. On the 4-day chart below there's some observations that need attention.

1) The bearish rising wedge + breakout. The extension of this breakout is pointing towards 50 cents. This would also be a break of market structure.

2) The head and shoulders pattern. A rally could be seen to form the right shoulder. If market structure is broken following this rally, then the neckline extension measures to 7 cents.

Good luck!

Comment:

A weekly death cross is now printing on the weekly chart. Be careful. Price action might move to the $1.70 area to form the right shoulder, everyone gets excited but the bigger picture is much more alarming.

Comment:

A relief rally might be due to $1.60 following the 'incredible buy' signal + regular bullish divergence. However don't don't get to excited. The trend is lower highs lower lows, if $1.60 is rejected it is almost certain a new lower low (yes lower than today's price action) will be printed.

Comment:

** broken market structure **

Not my opinion, just a fact. On the 10-day chart below price action prints a candle below the last higher high. Price action must move quickly above $1.30 to avoid confirmation.

Latterly price action breaks the 500-day MA. This is one MA that is never broken in a bull market. If you're still in profit, consider taking original stake off the table without being all maximalist. A confirmation of broken market structure by February 10th will send price action hurtling downward.

Trade active:

2-day death cross has now printed following the break of market structure!

Trade active:

Once $1 support fails price action should see a rapid collapse towards 80 cents. Don't assume that is the bottom, however. A Period of consolidation shall follow.

Trade active:

The bulls surrendered their 80 cent defence. 35 cents is the next support level to look out for.

Comment:

There’s been a few messages along the lines ‘How long do you think the selling will continue?’ Thought it would be easier to answer all here…

If you want the truth, read on… if you want something beautiful, go watch the moon boys on Youtube.

The weekly chart tells you all you need to know (below). The RSI resistance is worth particular attention. This is not my opinion, just a fact. That resistance is strong and price action will only continue downward while it exists. Currently it is projected to last until January / February 2023.

Comment:

** warning / 3-day death cross approaches **

Price action is currently projecting a 3-day death cross by mid-April. Make no mistake, if it is confirmed a significant drop in price action will occur. Possibly all the way to the 10-15 cent area.

What to watch for:

Price action rallies to $1.10. Everyone is excited. Then price action is rejected by the 3-day / 200-day SMA with a red candle body. If that happens, do not be long.

Comment:

Are you excited by price action climbing over $1? Bear market over?

Here is the 2-day chart, look where price action rallied to, straight into past support, which is now testing as resistance. This could be a bull trap / bear market rally and nothing more.

To invalidate the bear scenario price action must break through resistance and the 2-day/5-day SMA (blue line). If red candle bodies print under the blue line in the coming days then this latest move was nothing more than a bear market rally.

The trend is your friend!

Comment:

A lot of messages implying I'm being a bit hard on Cardano. Folks, I don't do projects, just profits. So should you.. there'll always be an abundance of opportunity. After parabolic moves in price action, you should look elsewhere.

Now if you're still married to the project, as I suspect a lot of messages received are, I've a suggestion... look at projects operating on the protocol rather than the protocol itself. Of those I've studied there's 'buy' signals signals on them all over multiple time frames just like ADA was at 1-2 cents.

Comment:

The 3-day death cross recently printed. It is interesting price action has not plummeted to the floor by now. This could be an interesting leading indicator to watch for Bitcoin price action as it has it's own 3-day death cross approaching.

Expect ADA to rally back to the $1.10 area to test the 50-day / 3-day MA (blue line).

Price action is in a bear market. Remember, no emotional long positions until price action is back above that blue line!