I’m definitely not going to get much fanfare posting something like this, but the ADA price action on the Daily chart is absolutely NOT bullish. The Elliott Wave counts across many of the major cryptos are looking more and more gloomy for the weeks ahead.
ADA appears to be finishing up a ‘b’ wave triangle whose measurements have it breaking down around 10/20-10/24, but NOT before finishing the ‘e’ of ‘b’ with a likely throw-over to the $2.30-$2.40 ($2.33 is critical) area; all before beginning the likely 5 wave ‘c’ wave downward. Symmetry and fib retracement levels create a ‘1:1’ relationship that puts the target at $1.10-$1.15; with a wick down to $0.95-$1.00 in the cards. ADA might stumble on the $1.40-$1.60 area as we start seeing numerous fib confluent levels.
This wave count is largely invalidated if the ‘b’ wave triangle breaks out above the $2.46 ‘a’ wave high; just don’t think negating this specific count means price becomes bullish. It doesn’t. If you start to see the price action break the triangle upper trend line, be alert this may be a false breakout or a ‘throw-over’; usually happening before a meaningful move in the other direction.
Don’t be too quick to jump in or out on this as triangles are exceptionally tricky as many times they aren’t triangles at all. Sometimes they just expand to form even bigger triangles or they are a complex set of zig zags, etc.
On a higher degree, ADA looks to have completed a full 5 wave cycle on its highest possible degree . This would mean we’re are in a wave 2 of possible cycle degree. This would also make $1.00 the initial, standard Elliott Wave Theory correction target of Wave 4 of one lesser degree. For context, although the magnitude and degree are slightly different, it’s similar in nature to a full bitcoin market cycle [historically fully cycling every 4 years). To me this implies ADA may not see new ATH’s for quite a while; even if my lower degree wave count is negated.
------My bias and general market concern ------
Im growing VERY concerned at how all the major cryptos are beginning to paint ugly patterns. For most, the patterns are very different, yet mostly seem to possess a common theme – EWT patterns pointing to the downside. Consider the overall macro economic picture, impending crypto legislation, a BTC ETF being approved (likely major bearish), and a seriously over-cooked, over-leveraged ecosystem that’s due for a real shake up. (I LOVE CRYPTO, BUT BE A REALIST)
I’m not sure what the supposed catalyst may be: a sudden raise in interest rates in the coming weeks, a major international event, etc. What I do know is Elliott Wave Theory, and so far, it’s not looking good in the coming weeks or months.
I love crypto, but I’m worried that we are about to see the greatest market deleveraging the world has ever known; unwinding hundreds of billions in pseudo-value. The kind of hysteria being seen in glorified .jpg’s (NFT’s) is, to me, a general warning sign that we are in the late stages of this. You can defend NFT’s all you want, but this market behavior must and will be corrected; being unable to continue forever. Behavior surrounding crypto has a whole (NFT’s, Alt Coins, etc) should tell you this is ‘late stage something.’ The one thing my recent EWT counts all have in common is the counts are valid and high probability with no 'reaching' or trying to bend the EWT rules.
I hope I’m wrong, but in the mean time, I hope you all manage risk well.
Be Careful,
Justin
ADA appears to be finishing up a ‘b’ wave triangle whose measurements have it breaking down around 10/20-10/24, but NOT before finishing the ‘e’ of ‘b’ with a likely throw-over to the $2.30-$2.40 ($2.33 is critical) area; all before beginning the likely 5 wave ‘c’ wave downward. Symmetry and fib retracement levels create a ‘1:1’ relationship that puts the target at $1.10-$1.15; with a wick down to $0.95-$1.00 in the cards. ADA might stumble on the $1.40-$1.60 area as we start seeing numerous fib confluent levels.
This wave count is largely invalidated if the ‘b’ wave triangle breaks out above the $2.46 ‘a’ wave high; just don’t think negating this specific count means price becomes bullish. It doesn’t. If you start to see the price action break the triangle upper trend line, be alert this may be a false breakout or a ‘throw-over’; usually happening before a meaningful move in the other direction.
Don’t be too quick to jump in or out on this as triangles are exceptionally tricky as many times they aren’t triangles at all. Sometimes they just expand to form even bigger triangles or they are a complex set of zig zags, etc.
On a higher degree, ADA looks to have completed a full 5 wave cycle on its highest possible degree . This would mean we’re are in a wave 2 of possible cycle degree. This would also make $1.00 the initial, standard Elliott Wave Theory correction target of Wave 4 of one lesser degree. For context, although the magnitude and degree are slightly different, it’s similar in nature to a full bitcoin market cycle [historically fully cycling every 4 years). To me this implies ADA may not see new ATH’s for quite a while; even if my lower degree wave count is negated.
------My bias and general market concern ------
Im growing VERY concerned at how all the major cryptos are beginning to paint ugly patterns. For most, the patterns are very different, yet mostly seem to possess a common theme – EWT patterns pointing to the downside. Consider the overall macro economic picture, impending crypto legislation, a BTC ETF being approved (likely major bearish), and a seriously over-cooked, over-leveraged ecosystem that’s due for a real shake up. (I LOVE CRYPTO, BUT BE A REALIST)
I’m not sure what the supposed catalyst may be: a sudden raise in interest rates in the coming weeks, a major international event, etc. What I do know is Elliott Wave Theory, and so far, it’s not looking good in the coming weeks or months.
I love crypto, but I’m worried that we are about to see the greatest market deleveraging the world has ever known; unwinding hundreds of billions in pseudo-value. The kind of hysteria being seen in glorified .jpg’s (NFT’s) is, to me, a general warning sign that we are in the late stages of this. You can defend NFT’s all you want, but this market behavior must and will be corrected; being unable to continue forever. Behavior surrounding crypto has a whole (NFT’s, Alt Coins, etc) should tell you this is ‘late stage something.’ The one thing my recent EWT counts all have in common is the counts are valid and high probability with no 'reaching' or trying to bend the EWT rules.
I hope I’m wrong, but in the mean time, I hope you all manage risk well.
Be Careful,
Justin
