ADA Approaches Nervous Retest of Channel Support Trendline
Well, ADA still hasn't gone up yet, so it seems like it's tracing out a different path from what it did in December 2020. In fact, we're approaching a retest of the channel support trendline, which means it's time to start paying attention to how ADA interacts with the trendline as we move closer to it. We've been trending horizontal at around 1.20 since breaking through the 10D and 20D moving averages on the 26th of March, which indicates that people might be a little bit cautious about whether to confirm the continuation of the trendline and are holding onto their money, waiting for other people to buy first.
Perhaps it's hesitation surrounding the March Cardano360 update, where Charles Hoskinson proposed a tentative roadmap for the Alonzo hardfork testnet to launch by the end of April or early May. I think this is not as concrete as some people would have liked - some I think were looking for dates. Still, it was only 19 days between the launch of the Mary testnet and the pushing of the hardfork onto the mainnet, and if the late-April-early-May testnet launch estimate is accurate then we're still well on schedule to fulfil the promise of 'Alonzo by Q2 2021'. For what it's worth, I'm personally not too fussed about the lack of a date, but in an increasingly heated market the price will react to the expectation of the majority, whether the majority is realistic and reasonable or not.
In the short term though, people will be forced into deciding whether to continue to respect the parallel channel or not. As such, given that we are still within the channel and above the support trendline, I am still bullish in the short term. However, we should start paying close attention to how the price decides to move. This retest of the channel support might be a butt-clencher, made worse by the fact that we no longer have the 10D, 20D or even the 50D moving averages there to help us anymore. It could be that we drop out of the channel, bounce off one of the moving averages, and then re-enter the channel, but that's not an ideal scenario as it weakens the channel for future challenges.
TL;DR: I'm still cautiously optimistic and bullish overall, but I would no longer be surprised if the price decides to move down until we get some more precise news about Alonzo. Make sure you have your stop losses - plan for the worst, but hope for the best.
Perhaps it's hesitation surrounding the March Cardano360 update, where Charles Hoskinson proposed a tentative roadmap for the Alonzo hardfork testnet to launch by the end of April or early May. I think this is not as concrete as some people would have liked - some I think were looking for dates. Still, it was only 19 days between the launch of the Mary testnet and the pushing of the hardfork onto the mainnet, and if the late-April-early-May testnet launch estimate is accurate then we're still well on schedule to fulfil the promise of 'Alonzo by Q2 2021'. For what it's worth, I'm personally not too fussed about the lack of a date, but in an increasingly heated market the price will react to the expectation of the majority, whether the majority is realistic and reasonable or not.
In the short term though, people will be forced into deciding whether to continue to respect the parallel channel or not. As such, given that we are still within the channel and above the support trendline, I am still bullish in the short term. However, we should start paying close attention to how the price decides to move. This retest of the channel support might be a butt-clencher, made worse by the fact that we no longer have the 10D, 20D or even the 50D moving averages there to help us anymore. It could be that we drop out of the channel, bounce off one of the moving averages, and then re-enter the channel, but that's not an ideal scenario as it weakens the channel for future challenges.
TL;DR: I'm still cautiously optimistic and bullish overall, but I would no longer be surprised if the price decides to move down until we get some more precise news about Alonzo. Make sure you have your stop losses - plan for the worst, but hope for the best.
Comment:
Oh boy, it's challenging the trendline right now. Let's hope it holds.
Comment:
The battle goes on! There's a tough battle going on and we dipped as low as 1.179, but there's a nice tail on the current 30 minute candle, so if we can close in the green or very slightly in the red then we're still alright.
We're slightly below the trendline but there's always some uncertainty in the drawing of these, and for now, I'd say that we're still just about holding it.
We're slightly below the trendline but there's always some uncertainty in the drawing of these, and for now, I'd say that we're still just about holding it.