DoctorFaustus

AMC; Hollywood's Moon Studio

Short
NYSE:AMC   AMC Entertainment
DISCLAIMER
This is in no way, shape or form, fluid and function, an analytical, qualitative or intelligent compte rendu. There is absolutely no financial advice here because the only financial advice I can give is to research, research, and research. The purpose of this analysis is to serve as an example of an investigation into a company's background, fundamentals, and assets through various lenses to determine if it is a good potential investment for you. The function of this write up is to serve as an educational resource for investors looking to understand how to find good investments. So read and learn some things about a company that might just be running one of the more obvious, and infamous public equity scams this century.

Everyone will fall for a scam in their life. The idea that there isn't the bigger conman is a testament to their skill.

Thesis
Humanity is stuck at the bottom of a cave, everything it knows is by what stumbles in front of the entrance, the light of day casting it's shadow on the wall above. Holding true to Marlowe's own feelings on Philosophy, Plato's Allegory of the Cave is this author's favourite representation. Sure, Plato has some weird fire and prisoner play embedded in the original edition, but the focus on belief versus knowledge is the golden nugget. Investing is a job built on belief and knowledge, where every salient point in any dossier can switch between the two. Computer technology companies release more powerful equipment every year, thus it is likely there will be a release of advanced hardware later in the year, yielding a reasonable raise in stock valuations for relevant companies. Amazon has had sales growth for all but 7 quarters over the last decade, thus should continue. Banks will profit from rising Federal Fund Rates as they get to increase their own interest rates further, thus making more money off their loans. All three of these points have made their way across the cave opening, numerous times, all of these have been consensus-based outcomes priced into the market, and all of them are beliefs - not knowledge. Amazon has had consistent increases in profit through quarters. Banks do not make more money when Federal Funds rates are higher, as they are all doing quite well on all time high profits and all time highs, with that rate near 0%. More advanced technological equipment has regularly released on a well-defined rate, but the affordability of that has not been consistent throughout history.

While humanity enjoys it's self-indulged exile at the bottom of the cave, material events happen in the greater world that alter the interpretation of it's visage. Micro- and macro-economic conditions and events happen that shape the potential for patterning, i.e. all that wonderful alpha exists in a multivariable loop. Amazon has increasing profits with an increasing GDP and favourable economic conditions. AMD, NVIDIA, Intel, and friends, all will release new hardware with a higher price. If there is a major hurdle in consumer spending preventing massive consumer credit flows towards unnecessary expenditures, there will be no lift. Banks have given increasing amounts of loans and spent more money in the last 3 years than the first 200 years of American history, close to more than 243 years of national spending, all of which they are going to start asking for more and more of back.

Deciding to invest is an interview process: there are thousands of candidates all with unique qualifications and possibilities. Interestingly, much of the information in the public domain on Adam Aron has been scrubbed, his Wikipedia page has no details despite previous versions having large subsections written on his time as the CEO of the 76ers, Vail Resorts, Norwegian Cruise Line, Hyatt Hotels, etc. etc. etc. Worst of all, there is little publicly available on Aron's extensive ties to Apollo Management, the mega-private equity company with a long history of hostile takeovers, filling acquisition targets with debt, zombification and Seppuku, all to advance their primary business interests- making money. A biographical review of Aron's achievements and endeavors reveal one thing; the guy cannot run a business. It might be considered libel to suggest Aron actually does his job very well; serving his private equity masters while continuing to sell an ever-growing scam, but this is truth-by-evidence.

It might surprise some, but movie theatre's are bad investments in a recession or economic downturn. Without dissecting the finances of AMC, and the iterative skeletons marking every one of it's predecessors- movie theatre's have no control over inventory, little ability to modulate the macro- and macro-economic environment, and rely on extensive mark-ups on movie-extras like popcorn and drinks. AMC does not have a movie production business, nor should it get one as there is a genuine chance for market segmentation should they decide to keep independently-derived content limited to the AMC chain, and vice versa from competitors. AMC does not have a commodity arm, they are the last link in an extensive, and costly, supply chain. As inflation storms it's way up, so do the expenses of making content, and facilitating the viewing of that content. The average cost of a movie ticket in the United States in 2021 was $9.57, with AMC's average serving at a ~12% premium of $11.16, with a tag of $13.69 for ages 13+. While America might have missed some of it's peers extremes, such as Italy's 40+% Producer Price Index - or the cost of making goods, PPI of all commodities still clocked in at a 25% rise over the last 2 years from the historical norm, including the previous high PPI of 2008. If AMC wants to reach profitability, they will need to raise prices over the increase of PPI, and onwards as there is little to suggest the wage-cost spiral is slowing. While the Federal Reserve attempts to destroy excess economic demand, they run a high risk of accentuating the mathematical recession America has been in, and running straight into the arms of a greater depression.

*Author note: In the 1980s/90s the Federal government made drastic measurement changes to it's CPI/Inflation equation. First and foremost, there is a significant amount of trimming as well as weight redistribution towards lower-inflating items in an effort to suppress the real number. Second, the measurement allows massive substitutions of like-objects, i.e. as clothing continues increasing in price, retailers focusing on lower-quality clothes will be utilized, representing a deflationary, or inflationary-null movement. Never mind if an important swath of clothing needed in the actual economy increases by 200%, if H&M et al. can continue to sell T-shirts that self-destruct after wearing continues to sit at a flat, and low, price. Luckily, an analyst group at Shadow Government Statistics still goes through the trouble of using the old equations, and publishes this data online. The 1980 based CPI is near 17%, and the 1990 based CPI is over 12%.

The movie theatre experience is not dying. As many theatres, and their management companies, have vanished, so too have new ones risen. AMC's ability to survive worsening economic conditions follows any other company's, given the same set of rules and standards. Build a moat; fill the books with liquid forms of accessible funding. Raise capital, keep it in stable and liquid assets. Reduce cash burn, either by selling off assets or limiting administrative bloat. Instead AMC gave it's executives tens of millions in stock bonuses throughout COVID, and bought an illiquid-sized stake in an illiquid-penny stock gold miner. Aron, in his letter to shareholders describing the "investment", admitted that it was a struggling miner without the cash necessary to keep going. In turn, early February AMC secured a $950 million bond with 7.5% interest due in 2029, $450 million more than planned, but $9.75 billion less than needed to white out the red in their book.

Beginning of 2019, AMC had roughly $9.5 billion in assets, including theatres, equipment, treasury assets, all the way to technological worth. Three months later they took on $5 billion in long term debt on what was supposed to be a short pandemic lockdown and transitory-economic downturn. Adam Aron and the AMC board led, and authorized, 50% of their book value in new debt in one of the most uncertain and financially deleterious events of all time. There are two possible observations to make when looking over AMC, and Adam Aron's history. Either the company was led by fools of a board, saved only by the epic squeeze on their stock leading to a near 3000% increase over a 4 month period, followed by a huge chunk of private debt issuance allowing AMC to keep the film running just a little longer. Or the company was designed to die. AMC took on more debt than was just fiscally sound, but more than would be necessary if the company had deigned to survive the brief pandemic and resume normal operations. If investors read into the counterparties selected by AMC for convertible debt issuance, meaning these bonds can be made into shares, they would find some of the same parties plaguing Aron at every previous company, with massive short positions against AMC and like. In what can only be imagined by the chaos of reality, Mudrick Capital caught fire in June of 2021 for buying 8.5 million shares of AMC privately, and then immediately selling them on the open market, with a considerable - and public- put position. Logically, Mudrick Capital also built a sizable position in HYMC, to the tune of 31%, a position they hadn't maintained since buying the mine privately in 2020 in a SPAC deal with it's Mudrick Capital Acquisition Corporation $MUDS. It is obvious Mudrick's boss, Jason Mudrick, and AMC's Aron have a rousing history, Bloomberg quotes Jason saying as much. Befitting something close to friendship, Jason Mudrick flew Aron to the HYMC mine and closed the deal in a matter of days. This is the same Jason Mudrick who 9 months earlier called AMC overvalued and dead, taking a substantial phantom short position confirmed by the private share purchase from the company. For the cherry on this sundae, HYMC filed on March 18th, 2022 to sell up to 1 billion more shares. This move would be disastrous for current investors, a move obviously dictated by Mudrick Capital who still has several members on the board. In what can only be overindulgence of insanity, Eric Sprott, the infamous goldbug and longtime pump and dumper, join AMC and Mudrick as the super-majority shareholders for the mine. Ignoring the years of scandal and scam, something the mine is far richer in than accessible and purifiable gold and silver, HYMC doesn't make sense for a movie theatre company to own, or invest in, or even look at.

Out of all the possible renovations, out of all the moves to make to shore up, or fix the failing movie theatre business it is, AMC did none of it. In fact, AMC hasn't made a single public comment or direction on how it can maintain a path through solvency while COVID continues to ravage the planet. Renovating theatres to add more air filtration, provide more individualized spacing/seating, moving towards luxury with more extensive in-movie dining options, rotating the business towards a rent-a-theatre combined with gaming opportunities for groups. Introduction of non-movie screens to allow for more localized community theatre projects. Continued evolution of the NFT with ticket purchase system. Further digital innovations allowing for a more specialized offerings. Paying off massive debt without taking more unnecessarily. Investing in movie theatre technology to advance AMC into the new age. Forming strategic partnerships with relevant brands to create a more inclusive movie experience at the theatre, i.e. taking customers directly from the movie to the storefront at the theatre. Forming strategic partnerships with movie and television distributors to enhance the reach of AMC from the theatre, to the home theatre. Creating a home theatre arm that offers the at-home silver screen experience. Even bringing back drive-thru theatres at this point has to be more on nose for AMC than anything they have done, period.

Contrary to the classicist, NFTs are a wonderful tool in enticing spend-heavy clientele. Many microtransaction games utilize 'collections' to maximize profit. In fact, NFTs in gaming is just a nomenclature change, rather than a new concept. While the mechanics of purchasing and equipping might be slightly altered, the premise is the same; a collector's item that does not alter the working environment, or cost a real total of resources, is a catchy treat for those with an addictive, possessive, or materialistic mindset. It's a digital sticker for someone to show that they were there, at the movie theatre, and saw it on the big screen. The greatest problem with AMC's rotation into NFTs are the failure to do it sooner in the original digital-social revolution, and the lack of a working profile page for users to compare and compete with their collections. Introducing the rational business idea over a decade ago, and without the term NFTs, might have given AMC some leverage in the property-rights battle to come between the theatre and production companies who will want their money. The early-bird gets the worm, and as more companies with digital-facing shops embrace the NFT-craze, the movie's studio will be more likely to handle the reigns for their creative property, leaving AMC in whatever position they chose to.

Knowledge and beliefs. Investors know that AMC has struggled with a business-plan to survive the pandemic so far, and lack a plan to thrive in the pandemic beyond. Investors know that AMC has a massive amount of debt coming due over the next few years, worth much more than the theatre itself is. Investors know that while the AMC theatre model is fixed, home theatres, and in-theatre viewing options are increasing, set to segment the market more than ever before. Investors know that Aron has a history of taking the chief executive role at fledgling businesses, and never bringing them further than fledgling. Investors know that the HYMC investment is off-brand for a movie theatre chain, and the details surrounding the deal are murky at best. Investors know that a massive short position, confirmed by official data and analytics via a mix of NGOs, SROs, and the SEC, including massive floating daily fail to deliver numbers. Investors know that this mechanic disequilibrium can cause a massive squeeze on the supply of shares, forcing the underlying's price to extreme valuations. Investors know that AMC has sold billions in convertible bonds, private shares, and insider share sales. Investors should also know, if due diligence were done, that Aron has a sordid history of bad management, and bad deals that might illustrate a leniency towards fraud. Investors believe that Aron has changed, or that AMC itself has changed, but this is the fool's representation of a lowly beast wandering past the cave's entrance. Plato's cave doesn't just make a great segue to distinguish between real and fake, belief and knowledge, it is a theatre. Chained to the bottom of the cave, watching as images flash upon the wall above, left to imagination alone. The movie playing for this analyst is a crime-thriller.


Final Disclaimer
I do not know what will happen to AMC, or it's underlying stock. I do not have any financial investment, nor plan to at any point in time, in AMC or it's underlying business, personnel, technological field, etc. etc. etc. Before the reader, who might be more inclined to believe Aron, AMC, and the mishmash of internet furus and personalities pumping or dumping on the stock, judges too harshly the writer or the work, I view it as a personal responsibility to call bullshit what it is. I could care less if AMC becomes the next trillion dollar company, I could care less if HYMC is full of diamonds, I could care less if Adam Aron identifies the cure for cancer, global warming, and ends all wars. He is the CEO of AMC, his job is to run a movie theatre business profitably, and in that regard, he does not.

Good luck to all, it is my sincere hope and effort that everyone should enjoy the finest in life, and meet nothing but success and glory. It is with this hope that I continue my work.

References - Do Due Diligence
These are references to posted-media and information online. None of this information has to be fact, in truth, most companies do lie on their formal SEC filings, hence the recent move by the SEC to punish this patternistic behaviour of reporting better results than expected, and editing them back down post-hoc.

www.shadowstats.com/...ata/inflation-charts
www.cnbc.com/2022/02...-refinance-debt.html
en.wikipedia.org/wik...k_Capital_Management
www.bloomberg.com/op...c-bought-a-gold-mine
www.bloomberg.com/ne...ng-shares-overvalued
fintel.io/doc/sec-mu...-march-17-19068-8722
www.prnewswire.com/n...mpany-301068244.html
www.bloomberg.com/ne...ense-to-amc-faithful
www.sec.gov/Archives...m229428d1_pre14c.htm
financialpost.com/co...r-penny-mining-stock
doomberg.substa...ol-and-his-gold?s=r <--- Article added for some context and flavour, the writer is accurate on much, but their valuation of HYMC's current deposits should include an asterick as they are not an inorganic chemist and do not have the specialty required to know if HYMC's gold and silver is truly as stuck as they suggest
www.reddit.com/r/Sup...uy_and_urge_amc_ceo/
nypost.com/2020/12/1...stay-afloat-sources/ <--NY Post is garbage in alphabet soup, Reddit is an unverifiable feed of those in the know, and in the scam, please do all due diligence and confirm via secondary sources and primary information.
www.perenews.com/apo...s-operating-partner/
wallmine.com/people/10545/adam-m-aron
littlesis.org/person...84100-Abbe_Kahn_Aron
opencorporates.com/officers/14212208
www.bloomberg.com/pr.../company/0292093Z:US - WORLD LEISURE PARTNERS, INC. founded by Aron with his Wife on the board, phone number is with Aron's personal messaging service, the company is in a mixed use building in Miami- mainly condos, could possibly be used for sheltering funds and laundering/tax evasion as investments in south florida can be constituted as investments in southern america, and has reduced taxation. Otherwise, a very interesting target for an in depth investigation…

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